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Who will be back first?

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Emperor Brutus

Emperor Brutus

more jester than prince
In the Midwest to the Northeast Ohio State is pretty much the last remaining superpower. We have Nebraska moving to the Big Ten next year so they must be included now, but our historic regional rivals for influence and dominance are all down for one reason or another:


Notre Dame: Multiple bad hires. Dwindling relevance combined with no conference begs the question will they ever make it back? Is this just a team that has seen its time go by and will become a permanent relic of the past in major college football like the Ivys and the service academies?


Penn State: Coach hanging on too long. Now I've heard people say Penn State might fall further into mediocrity with a new coach, I don't think that's true. Penn State is a sleeping giant, the state has a lot of talent, with the right coach that team will get recruits and with Ohio State make the east far and away the better division in the conference.


Michigan: Ultimate bad hire. They really [censored]ed up. What they have going for them, they will probably fire Dick Rod before Penn State is rid of JoePa. What they have going against them MSU seems to be making real strides in locking up a state with less talent on a yearly basis than PA. How many years will it take the coach to right the ship with what will be left, will it be before Penn State gets up and running?


The other question is what will happen to the teams that have filled the vacuum, Wisconsin, Iowa and more recently MSU. Will these teams emergence make it more difficult for the historic powers to make it back or do the Johnny come latelys have a hard fall in front of them when they historic powers start to rise?
 
Domers won't be back until they realize they can't have it both ways: i.e. win national championships with a team full of 1300 SAT kids. Unless they're willing to make some compromises on football admissions, they'll essentially become a Stanford or Northwestern: a team that when all the stars align can ride a 3-5 year window of relevance before slipping back.

Michigan needs to get rid of Rich Rod and find a Big Ten coach. A gimmicky passing game and no defense will not be successful in the Big Ten. I see Rich Rod getting one more year, then 2-3 years for the new coach to undo his damage, so we're really not looking at them back on top for several years.

Penn State: I really have to believe this is JoePa's last year--one way or another because quite frankly, he's dying in front of our eyes. Penn State has the best chance to get back on top provided JoePa doesn't rig the selection process to put his kid in charge and they bring in a young, dynamic coach (Peterson?).
 
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Looking at a combination of rosters, coaching staffs, recruiting bases, and program tradition, I have to go with Notre Dame.

Here's why: They have, in my opinion, a great coach who can do some great things with the team. They do have some solid talent; where they do need to improve is in the recruiting of defensive backs. They have shown that they can still go and recruit the Manti Teo, the Michael Floyd, Cyrus Gray's, etc etc. They have a perfect feeder system in place for recruiting with the Catholic high schools that play big time HS Football.

I think given some time that Kelly is going to get them playing good football; and that with a move to the new Big Ten that they will at least be a consistent team.





I see Michigan going the way of Nebraska and Miami for a few more years, once their next coaching change happens. By the time the next change happens, the roster is going to be so ravaged from transfers and decommits that it's going to be hard for them to compete early on. One thing that could speed up the process is the hiring of an outstanding coach such as Mr. Harbaugh. However, I don't know if Harbaugh is going to accept the job; that's a task in its own right. I pick Notre Dame over Michigan because I feel it already has a competent coaching staff in place, and that with the coaching changes they haven't alienated their recruiting bases ala Rich Rod.

Penn State is an X Factor. It seems that "being back" for Penn State is a different metric than for other schools. Penn State calls itself back when only having two consecutive good seasons. I don't follow this metric, however, so I think it's going to take a while for them. I can see JoePa stepping down and having JayPa coach the team to a few mediocre years...followed by another change at the HC position. I don't think Penn State is a "destination" job...it just happened to be JoePa's destination for so long.

Another reason why I pick Notre Dame to be back first is because they do not have to compete with Nebraska's addition to the conference.
 
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You know, the more I think about it, change my answer to Michigan. It still won't be for 2-3 years after whacking Dick Rod. With Penn State, I think they'll have to go through the inevitable transition coach who follows a legend before they find the right guy, so I give them 7 or so years before any chance at sustained relevance.

Domers are done. They can still get their 5* players, but they can't recruit the depth on both sides of the ball to run with the big boys.
 
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In order of best chance to worst for me-

PSU;
Given the in state talent base and the fact they aren't completely on the seat of their ass bad as scUM is right now I'd say they'll be back first if they can get the coaching situation straight. Thats all it would really take.

To use a road race analogy I think PSU has a car capable of winning the whole damn race and the shortest route to cover. They are on the side of the road with a flat and need to find a full sized spare, not a doughnut.

scUM;
The new AD could merge the DNA of Rockne/Walsh/Hayes/Lombardi to create his next coach in a lab and they are going to struggle for 3-4 full recruiting classes to undo the damage that RR has inflicted. If the next coaching hire is anything short of a 400ft home run they are in serious danger of a ND like multi-decade run of mediocrity.

Race status:They have completely broken down but they do actually have a Hemi in that thing. The problem is everything rides on the roadside fix going perfectly and soon. Its all or nothing because they are dropping back from the pack at an alarming pace.

ND;
IIRC a big unspoken part of the Lispers departure from ND was the tightening of academic standards. Specifically I remember a guy telling me Tony Rice and several other members of their '88 NC team wouldn't have been allowed in school under the new rules. If you are going to target only Northwestern level recruits then you are going to get Northwestern level results.

Race Status: They broke down years ago with a family truckster wood paneled station wagon that is FUBAR. They either decide to upgrade the vehicle, start racing against a different level of competition or give up racing all together.
 
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m*ch*g*n; FIRE RR and hire a competent head coach. That's it. Only a complete fucking bafoon like RR could completely screw the pooch this badly with the resources and tadition at tsun. I think a spread offense could work but not the one tsun is running. Power running game and play solid defense. I mean, really?!??! Why is that so hard to understand? You have the tools to work with stop building the wrong ship.


PSU; When JoePa dies on the field (let's be honest he's not leaving unless it's via dirt nap) they will need to promote from within or hire an outsider. Either way is a lose-lose you never want to be the guy following a legend...EVER. It will take 2 or 3 hires after JoePa to get it right. Maybe longer.


ND; No fucking chance. 20 years of irrelavance followed by 100 more. A combination of high academic standards, a refusal to join the Big Ten, and a series of epic fail hires at the HC position...Insert fork here. I know, I know...Stanford has high academic standards - but they're in a conference and already have a very good HC....like another poster said Service Academies and Ivy League...buh bye N*tre D*me.
 
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southcampus;1802666; said:
I think Beanie Babies, Pokemon cards, and popped collars will all be back before the Domers. Stick a fork in them.
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Beanie Babies went away?:mad2:

On topic: I'd go with scUM, they're not that far removed from a 30+ year bowl streak. If they shit can RR this year and can land Harbaugh they could put these 3 seasons behind them as a bad experiment. NoD has been returning to glory for 20 years and PSU is good every 3 years. I'm not sure either of them has a much higher ceiling these days.
 
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Emperor Brutus;1802657; said:
In the Midwest to the Northeast Ohio State is pretty much the last remaining superpower. We have Nebraska moving to the Big Ten next year so they must be included now, but our historic regional rivals for influence and dominance are all down for one reason or another:


Notre Dame: Multiple bad hires. Dwindling relevance combined with no conference begs the question will they ever make it back? Is this just a team that has seen its time go by and will become a permanent relic of the past in major college football like the Ivys and the service academies?


Penn State: Coach hanging on too long. Now I've heard people say Penn State might fall further into mediocrity with a new coach, I don't think that's true. Penn State is a sleeping giant, the state has a lot of talent, with the right coach that team will get recruits and with Ohio State make the east far and away the better division in the conference.


Michigan: Ultimate bad hire. They really [censored]ed up. What they have going for them, they will probably fire Dick Rod before Penn State is rid of JoePa. What they have going against them MSU seems to be making real strides in locking up a state with less talent on a yearly basis than PA. How many years will it take the coach to right the ship with what will be left, will it be before Penn State gets up and running?


The other question is what will happen to the teams that have filled the vacuum, Wisconsin, Iowa and more recently MSU. Will these teams emergence make it more difficult for the historic powers to make it back or do the Johnny come latelys have a hard fall in front of them when they historic powers start to rise?
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I think Michigan is the least likely to comeback and here's why. Like you stated, Michigan doesn't have an abundance of recruits and in the past they recruited well nationally. They've fallen off the radar the last couple of years and the new kids coming up probably don't remember their glory years even though it wasn't that long ago. Adding to it is the fact that Michigan has become an even more depressing, less desirable place to live recently. It's going to be tough.
 
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DubCoffman62;1802835; said:
I think Michigan is the least likely to comeback and here's why. Like you stated, Michigan doesn't have an abundance of recruits and in the past they recruited well nationally. They've fallen off the radar the last couple of years and the new kids coming up probably don't remember their glory years even though it wasn't that long ago. Adding to it is the fact that Michigan has become an even more depressing, less desirable place to live recently. It's going to be tough.
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As a 19 year old kid, I can tell you my only "memories" of Michigan are the constant beatings they've recieved from tOSU and their fall from grace. Maybe I'm biased though :biggrin:

Today's recruits most likely have no memory of their glory days in the 90's
 
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Penn St. is just having a down year.

They finished in the top 10 polls 3 out of the last 5 years and 4-1 record in bowl games. Maybe they will go down hill from here but they have done alright the past few years.
 
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