I prefer to look at which team would most deserve it based on the entire season, rather than just looking at how teams are playing now, whether people want a rematch, or which team would be the most favorable matchup for tOSU.
Looking at Texas, it seems they're getting more love than they deserve. Out of conference, they beat North Texas (now 2-7 in the Sun Belt), Rice (4-5 in Conf-USA), 1-AA Sam Houston State, and they lost by 17 at home. So out-of-conference they did nothing to deserve even a top-10 ranking, and The Big 12 is pretty weak this year. So does Texas deserve a title shot for beating an Oklahoma team that lost it's QB before the season started, and getting by Nebraska because they fumbled with 2 minutes to go? Or because they beat an unranked Texas Tech squad that passed for over 500 yards on them? Texas doesn't deserve to ranked any higher than Arkansas, something which the computers seem to recognize. It's the old 'lose early' and then just keep moving up syndrome. Games remaining: at Kansas State, aTm, and a CCG rematch against Nebraska.
Florida plays their last regular season conference game tomorrow, hosting South Carolina. They only had 3 conference road games, beating Vandy by 6, winning by 1 at Tennessee, and losing by 10 at Auburn in a close game with a meaningless last-second defensive TD. They beat Georgia by 7 in an ugly 'road game' at the non-Cocktail Party. At home, they beat Ky by 19, LSU by 13, and Bama by 15. Outside the conference, they beat S. Miss and UCF, and still have to play Western Carolina and at a down Fla. St. team. They already have clinched a spot in the SEC's CCG, against Arkansas or Auburn.
Auburn has non-conference wins over Washington St. (40-14), Buffalo, Tulane, and Arkansas St. They have big home wins over LSU (7-3) and Florida (27-17 with that late TD), and lost at home to Arkansas 27-10. They won big at Miss St., and have close road wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina. They still have to host Georgia and go to Bama in the Iron Bowl, but both of those schools figure to end up with at least 5 losses. Only if Arkansas loses two more games does Auburn make it to the CCG.
Arkansas opened at home with a 50-14 whacking by Southern California. Other non-conference games are wins over Utah St, SE MO St, and La-Monroe. So their non-conference play wouldn't even put them in the top-25. In the SEC, they won by 2 at Vandy, by 6 at S. Carolina, and had the big 27-10 win at Auburn. At home they beat Bama by 1 and drilled Ole Miss. They have to travel to Miss St., and still have to host LSU and Tennessee. If they have no more than 1 loss in those 3 games they'll play Florida in the CCG.
USC plays only 3 non-conference games, and they made them count: 50-14 at Arkansas, 28-10 hosting Nebraska, and the upcoming visit from the Domers. In the Pac-10, which I believe is clearly stronger than the Big-12 or the ACC this year, they play 5 road games (1 across town). They won at Arizona (by 17), at Washington St (by 6), drilled Stanford, and lost at Oregon State when the big comeback was short by a 2-point conversion. At home they beat Washington by 6 and Arizona St. by 7. They still have to host Oregon, Cal, and ND, and then visit UCLA.
Cal's non-conference slate was easy wins hosting Minny and 1-AA Portland State, and getting drilled in the opener at Tennessee 35-18 in a game that was worse than the final score. They have road wins against Washington St (21-3) and Oregon State (41-13). At home, they beat Arizona St. by 28, Oregon by 21, and Washington by 7. Before they end the season by hosting Stanford, they have to travel to Arizona and USC. So far they are better than USC in conference play but inferior to them outside the conference.
Rutgers and ND would need all 6 of the above teams to lose in order to have a shot at the Championship game.
The interesting thing of having Texas #3 in the human polls is how it could affect the loser of The Game. If form holds, do the pollsters prefer a tOSU-Texas rematch to a rematch of The Game? They probably would. But if the unthinkable occurs, how could the pollsters justify dropping a tOSU team (who's only loss would be the the new #1 squad) below a Texas team that they beat 24-7 in Austin?
So who most deserves it? Right now, in my opinion:
Florida
Auburn
Texas
USC (but they have the chance to move up with big wins)
Cal
Arkansas
Looking at Texas, it seems they're getting more love than they deserve. Out of conference, they beat North Texas (now 2-7 in the Sun Belt), Rice (4-5 in Conf-USA), 1-AA Sam Houston State, and they lost by 17 at home. So out-of-conference they did nothing to deserve even a top-10 ranking, and The Big 12 is pretty weak this year. So does Texas deserve a title shot for beating an Oklahoma team that lost it's QB before the season started, and getting by Nebraska because they fumbled with 2 minutes to go? Or because they beat an unranked Texas Tech squad that passed for over 500 yards on them? Texas doesn't deserve to ranked any higher than Arkansas, something which the computers seem to recognize. It's the old 'lose early' and then just keep moving up syndrome. Games remaining: at Kansas State, aTm, and a CCG rematch against Nebraska.
Florida plays their last regular season conference game tomorrow, hosting South Carolina. They only had 3 conference road games, beating Vandy by 6, winning by 1 at Tennessee, and losing by 10 at Auburn in a close game with a meaningless last-second defensive TD. They beat Georgia by 7 in an ugly 'road game' at the non-Cocktail Party. At home, they beat Ky by 19, LSU by 13, and Bama by 15. Outside the conference, they beat S. Miss and UCF, and still have to play Western Carolina and at a down Fla. St. team. They already have clinched a spot in the SEC's CCG, against Arkansas or Auburn.
Auburn has non-conference wins over Washington St. (40-14), Buffalo, Tulane, and Arkansas St. They have big home wins over LSU (7-3) and Florida (27-17 with that late TD), and lost at home to Arkansas 27-10. They won big at Miss St., and have close road wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina. They still have to host Georgia and go to Bama in the Iron Bowl, but both of those schools figure to end up with at least 5 losses. Only if Arkansas loses two more games does Auburn make it to the CCG.
Arkansas opened at home with a 50-14 whacking by Southern California. Other non-conference games are wins over Utah St, SE MO St, and La-Monroe. So their non-conference play wouldn't even put them in the top-25. In the SEC, they won by 2 at Vandy, by 6 at S. Carolina, and had the big 27-10 win at Auburn. At home they beat Bama by 1 and drilled Ole Miss. They have to travel to Miss St., and still have to host LSU and Tennessee. If they have no more than 1 loss in those 3 games they'll play Florida in the CCG.
USC plays only 3 non-conference games, and they made them count: 50-14 at Arkansas, 28-10 hosting Nebraska, and the upcoming visit from the Domers. In the Pac-10, which I believe is clearly stronger than the Big-12 or the ACC this year, they play 5 road games (1 across town). They won at Arizona (by 17), at Washington St (by 6), drilled Stanford, and lost at Oregon State when the big comeback was short by a 2-point conversion. At home they beat Washington by 6 and Arizona St. by 7. They still have to host Oregon, Cal, and ND, and then visit UCLA.
Cal's non-conference slate was easy wins hosting Minny and 1-AA Portland State, and getting drilled in the opener at Tennessee 35-18 in a game that was worse than the final score. They have road wins against Washington St (21-3) and Oregon State (41-13). At home, they beat Arizona St. by 28, Oregon by 21, and Washington by 7. Before they end the season by hosting Stanford, they have to travel to Arizona and USC. So far they are better than USC in conference play but inferior to them outside the conference.
Rutgers and ND would need all 6 of the above teams to lose in order to have a shot at the Championship game.
The interesting thing of having Texas #3 in the human polls is how it could affect the loser of The Game. If form holds, do the pollsters prefer a tOSU-Texas rematch to a rematch of The Game? They probably would. But if the unthinkable occurs, how could the pollsters justify dropping a tOSU team (who's only loss would be the the new #1 squad) below a Texas team that they beat 24-7 in Austin?
So who most deserves it? Right now, in my opinion:
Florida
Auburn
Texas
USC (but they have the chance to move up with big wins)
Cal
Arkansas
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