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WhatifSports NC Game Simulation

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3074326;1052850; said:
I'm getting the distinct feeling that this simulator is a huge Buckeye fan.

I have no idea how they simmed it 1000 times and LSU won the majority of the games. LSU beat OSU in one simulation I did, and that was the one with Henton vs. Perrilloux.
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I found it interesting that of the 1,000 times they played it the average score was LSU 22 OSU 21 with LSU winning 61% of the time. The interesting part is for that average score to come out to the above the 39% of the time OSU won it had to be in a rout......
 
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Wingate1217;1052880; said:
I found it interesting that of the 1,000 times they played it the average score was LSU 22 OSU 21 with LSU winning 61% of the time. The interesting part is for that average score to come out to the above the 39% of the time OSU won it had to be in a rout......
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Nutriaitch;1052885; said:
How do you go about figuring that one?
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Given the percentage of times LSU won (61% or 610 out of 1000) vs. what Ohio State won (39% or 390 out of 1000), to get the point differential to one singular point means a LOT of games came out within 2 points for LSU OR LSU won a few games very closely to about a TD in each and Ohio State won most of their 39% by 2 TDs or more....
 
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I just ran this season...for your enjoyement, using the weather condidtions, who played in the game, and so on in the sim. Enjoy.

Ohio State / Youngstown State N/A They don't have 1-aa schools
Ohio State 38 Akron 6
Ohio State 45 Washington 17
Ohio State 51 Northwestern 3
Ohio State 72 Minnesota 0
Ohio State 28 Purdue 19
Ohio State 37 Kent State 0
Ohio State 31 Michigan State 28
Ohio State 23 Penn State 13
Ohio State 54 Wisconsin 7
Ohio State 30 Illinois 9
Ohio State 29 Michigan 3
Ohio State 22 LSU 3 (I made LSU the home team)
 
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JonathanXC;1052983; said:
I just ran this season...for your enjoyement, using the weather condidtions, who played in the game, and so on in the sim. Enjoy.

Ohio State / Youngstown State N/A They don't have 1-aa schools
Ohio State 38 Akron 6
Ohio State 45 Washington 17
Ohio State 51 Northwestern 3
Ohio State 72 Minnesota 0
Ohio State 28 Purdue 19
Ohio State 37 Kent State 0
Ohio State 31 Michigan State 28
Ohio State 23 Penn State 13
Ohio State 54 Wisconsin 7
Ohio State 29 Michigan 3
Ohio State 22 LSU 3 (I made LSU the home team)
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Is there a reason, apart from the obvious, why you omitted the Illinois game?
 
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Wingate1217;1052880; said:
I found it interesting that of the 1,000 times they played it the average score was LSU 22 OSU 21 with LSU winning 61% of the time. The interesting part is for that average score to come out to the above the 39% of the time OSU won it had to be in a rout......
Click to expand...

Nutriaitch;1052885; said:
How do you go about figuring that one?
Click to expand...

BuckeyeMike80;1052889; said:
Given the percentage of times LSU won (61% or 610 out of 1000) vs. what Ohio State won (39% or 390 out of 1000), to get the point differential to one singular point means a LOT of games came out within 2 points for LSU OR LSU won a few games very closely to about a TD in each and Ohio State won most of their 39% by 2 TDs or more....
Click to expand...

Let's see if I can break it down (I'm not a math whiz, so someone tell me if I jack this up). Since there are 1000 simulations and LSU wins by an average of 1 point, they tallied 1000 more points overall than Ohio State. If the average margin of victory in their 610 wins was 3 points, that means they scored 1830 more points in those games. To make the total point differential 1,000 points, Ohio State would have outscored LSU by a total of 830 points in their 390 wins, which comes out to about a 2.13 margin of victory. Essentially, LSU beats us by a score that's just under a point per game more than the score we beat them by.
 
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Wow, this thing is awesome.
Really helps settle the nerves.
I don't think I simmed a game where Beanie ran for less than 150 yards and a TD.
We always manage to do a great job of keeping Hester in check.
A man can only hope that it is of some resemblence of tonight...
 
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However, you can tell there is something wrong with the simulator when the 1998 Ohio State Buckeyes are capable of running over any team from the Tressel area. Most of the scores are like 37-20. It's crazy.

And yeah, 2007 Michigan Wolverines are just bad. 2006 ain't that bad, though. They have stacked up well against a lot of teams in sims.
 
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MililaniBuckeye;1053017; said:
Let's see if I can break it down (I'm not a math whiz, so someone tell me if I jack this up). Since there are 1000 simulations and LSU wins by an average of 1 point, they tallied 1000 more points overall than Ohio State. If the average margin of victory in their 610 wins was 3 points, that means they scored 1830 more points in those games. To make the total point differential 1,000 points, Ohio State would have outscored LSU by a total of 830 points in their 390 wins, which comes out to about a 2.13 margin of victory. Essentially, LSU beats us by a score that's just under a point per game more than the score we beat them by.
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Not too jacked, I don't think, though I'm not a math major either. :) The 2.13 is only valid for your example, though.

x = average winning margin for LSU
y = average winning margin for OSU

1000 = 610 * x - 390 * y
y = (610 * x - 1000) / 390

We know OSU has to have won by at least 1 point in 390 games, so LSU's minimum average margin of victory is 2.27 in their 610 wins.

However, OSU's margin of victory goes up faster than LSU's. If they outscore us by 3, we're outscoring them by only 2.13, as Mili said. But, if they outscore us by 10, we're outscoring them by 13.1 in our victories.
 
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MolGenBuckeye;1053105; said:
Not too jacked, I don't think, though I'm not a math major either. :) The 2.13 is only valid for your example, though.

x = average winning margin for LSU
y = average winning margin for OSU

1000 = 610 * x - 390 * y
y = (610 * x - 1000) / 390

We know OSU has to have won by at least 1 point in 390 games, so LSU's minimum average margin of victory is 2.27 in their 610 wins.

However, OSU's margin of victory goes up faster than LSU's. If they outscore us by 3, we're outscoring them by only 2.13, as Mili said. But, if they outscore us by 10, we're outscoring them by 13.1 in our victories.
Click to expand...

I knew someone here would actually have some math skills... :biggrin:
 
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