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Week 1 Games Discussion

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billmac91 said:
I’ve had a lotta success with CFB betting last few years. Will do my top 5 plays weekly (if u want me to change forums let me know). I think early season CFB gives bettors, by far, the best chance of winning bc Vegas knows about as much as we do. So the field is very level….

My picks for Week 1:

Fresno State +21.5 at Michigan.

Mind blowing # here. Fresno State is a legit mid major school that has some talent. Michigan lost 43 seniors and will be playing a lot of guys with very limited game experience including new QB Alex Orji who sounds like fun, until u watch him try and throw a ball. Obviously I’d recommend taking the points, but like Ga Tech in week 0, I think the value on Fresno at +1100 is solid…might be worth a few bucks.

WKU +31 at Bama…..Bama has a lotta moving parts with transfers in and out, new staff, new system, etc. WKU is always respectable….with Saban I wouldn’t touch…with first game under new coach, I love WKU to cover. WKU to start TJ Finley who has SEC experience and shown positive traits since leaving LSU.

Troy -8 at home vs Nevada. Nevada just puked away a heart breaker to newly minted ACC team, SMU. Huge letdown spot here after giving away a win in the 4th quarter. Troy is always a bitch to play….bad opponent, bad location, and terrible timing for Nevada.

Utep +27.5 at Nebraska. Solid mid majors getting no love for the culture they’ve built. UTEP lost significant contributors to their offense but they’ve also built a culture last few years. Nebraska has some talent but I don’t think it’s 27.5 points better in opening week. If UTEP finds success early in this game, ass-cheeks could be tight in Lincoln. Also think, while talented, starting a true freshman in Dylan Raioli will keep things closer than otherwise….


TCU -8.5 at Stanford….kinda tailing the national media here. Stanford has been terrible and cleaned house, asking tons of veterans to transfer or graduate and not come back for Covid year. They’re actually one of the youngest rosters in CFB bc of it. But they couple that with being mediocre with talent. Feels like Stanford is punting on 2024 to line up 2025 and beyond. I think Sonny Dykes puts up points and pulls away.

Good luck to all!!!

I tend to do point spreads but also over/unders….if y’all want opinions on that let me know…I just know most casual bettors dial in on the point spread.
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Good stuff. Always like reading insights and plays.
 
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