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We are not out yet!! (Okay, now we are....)

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Before I begin my detailed analysis :biggrin: if Ohio State doesn't get in which is likely and Oklahoma wins it all there should be much ado re: the Buckeyes 3rd game in 2016 at Oklahoma. ok, enough about next year.

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Not sure what the fools who determine the FPI use as criteria, but currently ...



Ohio State is 3rd, UNC is 15th, Sparty is 14th, Stanford is 11th, Florida 23rd and Iowa is nowhere to be found. ok, ok, they're 25th.

So in conclusion the Buckeyes need Clemson and 'Bama to lose and the ***committee*** to use the eye test. As always, no charge for my in depth analysis. :urban2:

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btw, did I mention the Buckeyes are currently the FCS defending National Champions !!! It still rolls off the tongue!

carry on
 
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I don't necessarily think it's gonna happen, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if the rankings were:

1. Clemson
2. Bama
3. Iowa
4. Sparty
5. OU
6. OSU

This leaves the committee in a position where if all who should win (Iowa), wins, then they can slide OU into the 4th spot. But if Sparty beats Iowa it gives them a reason for us to jump another 11-1 team that lost to a lesser opponent.

The committee has shown they don't always follow numerical profession logical in the past, so I think they could throw a curve in there to set them up with rankings that allude to the different scenarios that could play out Saturday.
 
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You can literally come up with a dozen of different groups of "the four best teams" by using different criteria and reasoning. The committee aspect of the process is supposed to keep something crazy from happening, and it should. I like the process as it is because they got it right last year, and I believe they will this year. If Clemson and Alabama win, then it will be very easy and defendable for the CFBPC. If Florida would beat Bama (less likely imo than PSU beating MSU last week), or, more possible, if NC would beat Clemson, then it will get itchy. I think both have to happen for Ohio State to have a great case. But if only one of those upsets occurs we have B1G East Division 2nd place Ohio State pitted against a 2 loss conference champion Stanford or a one loss conference champion in NC.

Ohio State's resume is pretty weak imo. I think the VT win was a decent one. VT was healthy and had a month to prepare, but the Bucks went in there and got it done. In the process, they knocked Brewer out of the next 4 games, which contributed to the Hokie's 6-6 season. From there the Buckeyes meh'd their way past Hawaii, N Illinois, and W Michigan. At that point the conventional wisdom was that it was OK because they just needed to round into form by Nov. They showed offensive and defensive issues in closer than expected wins over Indiana and Maryland. Against PSU and Rutgers they appeared to be rounding into form. They dominated both games (excepting Barkley's rush performance), but, in doing that, they were simply doing what they were expected to do, but did not prove that they were a top 4 team. Penn St is the second decent, respectable win on the schedule to this point. Rutgers was a total mis-match, but the Bucks seemed to have settled on a QB, and seemed to have a chance to build toward Nov, but our QB decided to drink and drive and he got busted. The Bucks followed that with OK wins over Minnesota and Illinois, which kept them alive, but made them look more like a solid #15 team than a dominant top 4 team. Then we have an inexplicable loss in Ohio Stadium to a team that had struggled worse than OSU had all year - without their starting QB, who was presumed to be Sparty's only chance for victory. Then, after being released from the burdens of a winning streak and fear of losing, they looked like the team we expected them to and got their first and only quality win of the season last Sat in AA.

1 quality win and 2 decent wins (although there are arguments against those teams being quality/decent) with a whole lot of meh in between, and a loss that had everyone questioning what in the world has been going on in the Woody. Following VT, the Buckeyes needed to dominate everyone from there up to Sparty, then if they dropped that one, but put it on scUM - then they would have a better argument. As it is, their biggest assets are a dominant win at scUM, they are the defending champs, and they have the potential to be much better than they have played. That's going to be pitted against a NC ACC champ with a win over the consensus #1 team and/or a Stanford PAC champion who played a better schedule and has more quality wins.

Essentially, NC needs to beat Clemson ugly, and USC needs to beat Stanford, and then the CFBPC will probably look at Ohio State and declare them the prettiest girl among a bunch of ugly girls.

I suspect that Ohio State could be one of the 4 best teams right now, but that's a suspicion/belief, not anything provable. The 2015 Buckeyes had an unbelievable amount of potential, but they pissed it away for reasons I don't completely grasp. All they can do now is try to prove how good they are in probably a non-playoff bowl game against a very good opponent.
 
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I don't necessarily think it's gonna happen, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if the rankings were:

1. Clemson
2. Bama
3. Iowa
4. Sparty
5. OU
6. OSU

This leaves the committee in a position where if all who should win (Iowa), wins, then they can slide OU into the 4th spot. But if Sparty beats Iowa it gives them a reason for us to jump another 11-1 team that lost to a lesser opponent.

The committee has shown they don't always follow numerical profession logical in the past, so I think they could throw a curve in there to set them up with rankings that allude to the different scenarios that could play out Saturday.
There's no way of that being the rankings tomorrow. If anything Oklahoma would move up. They crushed the #11 team on the road. I could see movement but not Oklahoma going down.
 
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1. There are definitely some tough breaks against Ohio State along the way that contributed to their difficult position, but you have to take care of business. In the old BCS, it'd be Clemson and Iowa in the driver's seat.

2. I do think the Stanford arguments are completely going over my head. I don't get it. They have two losses. One to a middling B1G team. Winning the Pac 12 doesn't overcome that. If it does, then why not a two-loss Florida or a three-loss USC?

3. The one thing that makes this all very difficult to accept is 2011. Alabama didn't win their own division. There were only two teams who could get selected for the title game. You had 1-loss Pac 12 Champion Stanford and 1-loss Big 12 Champion Oklahoma State. LSU had to play an extra game BECAUSE they beat Alabama on the road, putting them at a major disadvantage going to into the championship. That absurd result was one the media wanted. They voted for it. And now, with 4 teams, Ohio State can't get in because they didn't win their division??? I agree with the premise, but 2011 makes it hard to accept.
 
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How Ohio State could overcome a lack of conference title to reach CFP

The College Football Playoff selection committee has every statistic imaginable at its fingertips, including 128 "team sheets" in their playoff binder that list each team's overall results, strength of schedule and statistics.

There's also one more very important detail at the top of the page, where it reads "Conference champion" -- followed by a yes or no.

This just in: Ohio State doesn't have one this season.

Considering how well the defending national champs played in Saturday's 42-13 dismantling of Michigan, speculation began immediately as to whether Ohio State could still sneak into the Dec. 6 top four with its 11-1 record, the lone loss being to Michigan State.

It can, but not without significant help.

The selection committee's protocol certainly allows for it to be considered, and there is no limit on how many teams from one conference can be in the top four. But there is a caveat: The committee may select a non-champion or independent "under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country."
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Last year, Ohio State's win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game was the final push the Buckeyes needed to crack the committee's top four for the first time all season.

"It mattered in the end result," Long said. "Conference champions, as you mentioned, is one of the criteria for us to consider when we have two teams that are basically equal, so they definitely matter. I don't know that I can put a value on how much they matter."

The committee could certainly put a value on how much they don't if Ohio State makes the cut.

Continued: http://espn.go.com/college-football...ckeyes-test-value-not-having-conference-title
 
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I think they would put Stanford in over us before UNC.....the boner jerk off fest for Stanford has always amused me.

Michigan State beating Iowa decently would certainly boost our case a little. "Ohio State lost to Michigan State who dominated Iowa in the Big 10 title game to seal a spot in the top 4" sounds a lot better than "Ohio State lost to a team who flopped to Iowa in the Big 10 title game to eliminate themselves from the playoffs"
 
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2. I do think the Stanford arguments are completely going over my head. I don't get it. They have two losses. One to a middling B1G team. Winning the Pac 12 doesn't overcome that. If it does, then why not a two-loss Florida or a three-loss USC?

I think a 3 loss team is too big of a gap for the conf champion title to keep afloat. Now comparing Florida to Stanford they both have loses to a 10 win team and the 2nd loss is to a 9/8 win team. While not quite equal I would say the ND win vs the Bama win that would have to happen for this to matter would come pretty close to cancelling each other out. The real differences are Stanford didn't get blown out in either loss and one of them was the first game of the season and Florida lost last week and got their asses handed to them at home and they couldn't even put up a FG with their offense.
 
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Lots of talk about the scUM punt play vs Sparty but here's another play that works against us. Without it, 'Bama wouldn't even be in the SEC title game.



Actually, while what you say is true, not being in the SEC conference game would just assure 'Bama of a position in the playoffs now w/out having to play in the SEC title game imo as the committee has already used the eye test to determine 'Bama is one of the top (4) teams anyways.

Again, while slim, the SEC title game just gives Alabama another chance to lose ie not make the playoffs, so in effect the SEC title game works against them re: this year.
 
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