We are not out yet!! (Okay, now we are....)

[Mariotwins]

I've got no issue with that either :cheers:

Wouldnt mind destroying USC

 

[Greyshirt]

ACC champ is in (Clemson or NC)
B10 champ is in (MSU or Iowa)
Oklahoma is in

So the only way a slot opens up is if ,Bama loses to Florida. Then the debate begins. OSU has a real shot at that point. Not many 1 loss teams left. The only team IMO that may get in over OSU is Stanford as the Pac 10 champ. But if they lose then OSU may get in for sure.

So Bama must lose and then OSU has a shot.

 

[Zurp]

ACC champ is in (Clemson or NC)
B10 champ is in (MSU or Iowa)
Oklahoma is in

So the only way a slot opens up is if ,Bama loses to Florida. Then the debate begins. OSU has a real shot at that point. Not many 1 loss teams left. The only team IMO that may get in over OSU is Stanford as the Pac 10 champ. But if they lose then OSU may get in for sure.

So Bama must lose and then OSU has a shot.

Ohio State is on the bubble. We need to root for fewer teams to be "in" and fewer teams to be "on the bubble". If there's 3 or fewer "in" teams, obviously they drop to the bubble teams.
I think that if Clemson wins, they're in, and NC is out. If NC wins, they both fall to the bubble. They'd both be 12-1. NC would be a conference champion, putting them above Ohio State. But their schedule (I hear they have 2 wins over FCS teams, and I don't know who they lost to) drop them down a little. Clemson, being 12-1, might also be above Ohio State, at 11-1.
Obviously, Oklahoma is in.
Obviously, Big Ten champion is in. If Iowa wins, I think Michigan State is out. But if Michigan State wins, Iowa, at 12-1, remains on the bubble. I'm guessing they'd be below Ohio State, but I don't like the idea of all these bubble teams. I think I need to root for Iowa.
If Stanford wins, they're on the bubble. Above Ohio State, maybe? 2-loss conference champion vs. 1-loss non-champion. If USC wins, Stanford is out.
If Alabama wins, of course they're in and all this bubble talk is moot. But if Florida wins, Bama is a 2-loss non-champ. I don't see how a 2-loss non-champ is in over a 1-loss non-champ. Except, of course, SEC! SEC! SEC! Does Florida have 2 losses or 3? If they have 3 then they're already out. If they have 2, and they beat Bama, they're on the bubble and may be in over Ohio State.

So yeah - I agree. The best shot Ohio State has is if Alabama loses. But there's a slight chance we get in if Clemson loses, but I don't like those chances much. I'll be rooting for Iowa, Clemson, Florida, and USC.

 

[matttank]

Ohio State is on the bubble. We need to root for fewer teams to be "in" and fewer teams to be "on the bubble". If there's 3 or fewer "in" teams, obviously they drop to the bubble teams.
I think that if Clemson wins, they're in, and NC is out. If NC wins, they both fall to the bubble. They'd both be 12-1. NC would be a conference champion, putting them above Ohio State. But their schedule (I hear they have 2 wins over FCS teams, and I don't know who they lost to) drop them down a little. Clemson, being 12-1, might also be above Ohio State, at 11-1.
Obviously, Oklahoma is in.
Obviously, Big Ten champion is in. If Iowa wins, I think Michigan State is out. But if Michigan State wins, Iowa, at 12-1, remains on the bubble. I'm guessing they'd be below Ohio State, but I don't like the idea of all these bubble teams. I think I need to root for Iowa.
If Stanford wins, they're on the bubble. Above Ohio State, maybe? 2-loss conference champion vs. 1-loss non-champion. If USC wins, Stanford is out.
If Alabama wins, of course they're in and all this bubble talk is moot. But if Florida wins, Bama is a 2-loss non-champ. I don't see how a 2-loss non-champ is in over a 1-loss non-champ. Except, of course, SEC! SEC! SEC! Does Florida have 2 losses or 3? If they have 3 then they're already out. If they have 2, and they beat Bama, they're on the bubble and may be in over Ohio State.

So yeah - I agree. The best shot Ohio State has is if Alabama loses. But there's a slight chance we get in if Clemson loses, but I don't like those chances much. I'll be rooting for Iowa, Clemson, Florida, and USC.

This point is a point that has been brought up many times that I find interesting. Most seem to think that MSU falls below us if they lose, which essentially means they are being punished for having to play an extra game against an undefeated and really good team while we sit at home and accomplish...nothing. I'm not sure this is a precedent -- meaning in this case that a team that goes to a championship game with the same record as a team it defeated and loses, then falls behind the team it defeated -- I want set.

I also think that if this happens that the committee will treat OSU and MSU like they did Baylor and TCU last year, and put another team in front of them rather than trying to decide what to do about this set of circumstances. On the other hand, I have no problem and think it likely Iowa falls behind us if they lose, since it would essentially confirm that the East was just better than the West. Its why I said I think we need all 3 of MSU, Florida and USC to win earlier in the thread.

 

[Zurp]

This point is a point that has been brought up many times that I find interesting. Most seem to think that MSU falls below us if they lose, which essentially means they are being punished for having to play an extra game against an undefeated and really good team while we sit at home and accomplish...nothing. I'm not sure this is a precedent -- meaning in this case that a team that goes to a championship game with the same record as a team it defeated and loses, then falls behind the team it defeated -- I want set.

I also think that if this happens that the committee will treat OSU and MSU like they did Baylor and TCU last year, and put another team in front of them rather than trying to decide what to do about this set of circumstances. On the other hand, I have no problem and think it likely Iowa falls behind us if they lose, since it would essentially confirm that the East was just better than the West. Its why I said I think we need all 3 of MSU, Florida and USC to win earlier in the thread.

I certainly understand your point, and can't argue too much, except to say that 11-1 should inherently be better than 11-2. If conference championships mean so much (as I think they should), then its hard for me to agree that an 11-1 non-champion should be beaten out by a 11-2 non-champion.

However, if Michigan State wins, I can see that Iowa (12-1) could be above Ohio State (11-1). I think the committee would view the schedules/results/anything else they want to, and they may put Ohio State ahead of Iowa. Maybe Ohio State's schedule was tougher. Maybe Ohio State's 3-point loss to Sparty looks better than Iowa's 31-point loss to Sparty.

I think I'll root for Michigan State to get their second loss. I think that drops them below Ohio State, in my mind. Iowa's 12 wins makes me more nervous, at this point. But I still think the best chance Ohio State has is for 'Bama to lose. (Of course, I read in another thread that they're 17.5-point favorites. Great.)

 

[matttank]

I certainly understand your point, and can't argue too much, except to say that 11-1 should inherently be better than 11-2. If conference championships mean so much (as I think they should), then its hard for me to agree that an 11-1 non-champion should be beaten out by a 11-2 non-champion.

However, if Michigan State wins, I can see that Iowa (12-1) could be above Ohio State (11-1). I think the committee would view the schedules/results/anything else they want to, and they may put Ohio State ahead of Iowa. Maybe Ohio State's schedule was tougher. Maybe Ohio State's 3-point loss to Sparty looks better than Iowa's 31-point loss to Sparty.

I think I'll root for Michigan State to get their second loss. I think that drops them below Ohio State, in my mind. Iowa's 12 wins makes me more nervous, at this point. But I still think the best chance Ohio State has is for 'Bama to lose. (Of course, I read in another thread that they're 17.5-point favorites. Great.)

Yeah, all of this doesn't matter too much if the Tide take care of business, which I'm, unfortunately, confident they will. And I see being worried about Iowa as well, I just disagree that 1-loss is automatically better than 2 losses when both teams have the same amount of wins. I think its a case by case comparison at that point.

On a side note, a scenario I would kind of like to see if they (Bama) do win is for MSU to win and UNC to win. Then you finish the season with 7 different 1-loss teams (8 if Houston wins and you want to include the G5). Taking a top 4 out of that mess just doesn't seem right and could push us much closer to 8 teams, which is close to optimal in my mind.

(Optimal for me is 12 teams with a bye to the top 4 and home games for the higher seed the first 2 rounds with the semi-finals on as is. P5 conference champs get an auto-bid and are guaranteed a top 8 seed. Seeding otherwise is up to the committee. This way we might actually get to see warm weather teams playing in the cold of winter as well as a deserving G5 team get in the playoff. Also the regular season still matters due to the huge advantage of the bye + home field advantage).

 

[UpNorth_Buckeye]

Ohio State is on the bubble. We need to root for fewer teams to be "in" and fewer teams to be "on the bubble". If there's 3 or fewer "in" teams, obviously they drop to the bubble teams.
I think that if Clemson wins, they're in, and NC is out. If NC wins, they both fall to the bubble. They'd both be 12-1. NC would be a conference champion, putting them above Ohio State. But their schedule (I hear they have 2 wins over FCS teams, and I don't know who they lost to) drop them down a little. Clemson, being 12-1, might also be above Ohio State, at 11-1.
Obviously, Oklahoma is in.
Obviously, Big Ten champion is in. If Iowa wins, I think Michigan State is out. But if Michigan State wins, Iowa, at 12-1, remains on the bubble. I'm guessing they'd be below Ohio State, but I don't like the idea of all these bubble teams. I think I need to root for Iowa.
If Stanford wins, they're on the bubble. Above Ohio State, maybe? 2-loss conference champion vs. 1-loss non-champion. If USC wins, Stanford is out.
If Alabama wins, of course they're in and all this bubble talk is moot. But if Florida wins, Bama is a 2-loss non-champ. I don't see how a 2-loss non-champ is in over a 1-loss non-champ. Except, of course, SEC! SEC! SEC! Does Florida have 2 losses or 3? If they have 3 then they're already out. If they have 2, and they beat Bama, they're on the bubble and may be in over Ohio State.

So yeah - I agree. The best shot Ohio State has is if Alabama loses. But there's a slight chance we get in if Clemson loses, but I don't like those chances much. I'll be rooting for Iowa, Clemson, Florida, and USC.

Why would you not also root for UNC? I'm hoping for Florida, UNC, USC, and I guess MSU. But I see OSU ahead of either loser, so not sure I care much for that one. But msu beating Iowa, and let's say beating them bad (I don't think they will, but let's say they do), and then UNC beats Clemson in a regular fashion, not a 59-0 type game. MSU blowing out Iowa helps our resume than Iowa beating MSU.

 

[Mac]

22% chance of getting into the CFB Playoff according to 11W

 

[TampaBuckeyes]

The only thing I will be cheering for is florida. I want to laugh at the difficult decision and all of the pundits expressing their opinions then on how the committee got it wrong. It will be gold.

 

[sflbuck]

The problem is that no one (including me) can say what is going to happen before the results of the games this weekend. The standard is to select "unequivocally" the 4 best teams. How does OSU become one of these 4?

First, for any scenario, MSU has to beat Iowa, convincingly. If OSU is to get in, they have to have the "best loss" of any 1 loss team. That means MSU has to win and win big. I would think 10 points at a minimum, with OSU's chance going up with every additional point added to the margin. If they blow them out like they did PSU, now were talking.

Clemson/North Carolina- Obviously Clemson is in with a win. For OSU to be considered "unequivocally" better that North Carolina with them winning the ACC CG, they have to just get by Clemson. A convincing win will wrap it up for North Carolina. If the just get by (10 points or less?) then the committee will have to consider the following:

1) Common Opponents- North Carolina soundly beat Illinois at home 48-14 while OSU won going away at Illinois 28-3. North Carolina needed OT to win at Blacksburg 30-27 while OSU won going away 42-24.

2) The committee will also have to factor in if they want to reward North Carolina for scheduling 2 FCS teams. Say what you will, but every mid and low level Power 5 team will be rushing to add FCS's teams to their schedule if they do. If the committee ignores those win completely they will consider a 11-1 OSU vs a 9-1 North Carolina.

Bama- The easiest to defend. A loss by Bama to Florida will put OSU in.

Stanford- Some would say a 2 loss Stanford would pass OSU. However no one would say that if they watched Stanford's game with ND and OSU's game with Michigan. The Stanford defense was bad against ND. If they unleash a bet down on USC, they would pass OSU. A convincing win makes it possible. A very close game is in OSU's favor IMO.

All this means OSU has a small but not insignificant chance at the playoffs. I saw where Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com puts it at 22%. That sounds about right to me.

 

[ShowMeBuck]

Only chance is with a UNC win and we would probably need that to be a narrow or luck win. Everything else is secondary to that. Personally I consider there being a zero chance of Florida beating Bama. I consider Bama and OU as being locks along with the Big 10 champ.

If Iowa wins I guess that would put Sparty in contention with OSU as a one losss team and they did beat us.....but I think the way they beat us and the way they beat TTUN while we hammered them would put us over the top.

If UNC pulls the upset then it would be nice to have USC beat Stanford but it might not be absolutley necessary. A USC win guaruntees the Pac 12 getting shut out though.

A UNC win is absolutely paramount and it really needs to be viewed as a narrow/luck win. If that happens then OSU has a very legit shot. One factor in that will be how strong the Big 10 is in the rankings. Funny to think how quickly the perception of the Big would change if that happened. From being a liability to a strength in a very short time.

It all boils down to a narrow UNC win in my eyes.

 

[Bill Lucas]

If Iowa wins I guess that would put Sparty in contention with OSU as a one losss team and they did beat us.

If Iowas wins Sparty has two losses and is out of the conversation.

The committee rankings this week will give us a clearer view. For some reason I could see us ranked ahead of Iowa on Tuesday night. It's just a feeling I have and it would give us a little more buffer between us and UNC and Stanford. Of course, I could also be completely off base.

 

[exhawg]

Only chance is with a UNC win and we would probably need that to be a narrow or luck win. Everything else is secondary to that. Personally I consider there being a zero chance of Florida beating Bama. I consider Bama and OU as being locks along with the Big 10 champ.

If Iowa wins I guess that would put Sparty in contention with OSU as a one losss team and they did beat us.....but I think the way they beat us and the way they beat TTUN while we hammered them would put us over the top.

If UNC pulls the upset then it would be nice to have USC beat Stanford but it might not be absolutley necessary. A USC win guaruntees the Pac 12 getting shut out though.

A UNC win is absolutely paramount and it really needs to be viewed as a narrow/luck win. If that happens then OSU has a very legit shot. One factor in that will be how strong the Big 10 is in the rankings. Funny to think how quickly the perception of the Big would change if that happened. From being a liability to a strength in a very short time.

It all boils down to a narrow UNC win in my eyes.

Bama should have a cake walk over Florida, but they aren't a lock in the sense that if half the team gets food poisoning and the SEC is out of the playoff. B1G champ gets in regardless and the loser drops below us since MSU would have 2 losses and Iowa didn't play anyone. I think the ACC champ gets in regardless so our only shot is to get an extra large bottle of Visine in the Bama water jug Saturday morning. 1 loss non-CC will get in over a 2+ loss CC and that's our only chance over the SEC and PAC 12. We needed the Sooners to lose. Now we'll likely get an old school Rose Bowl with Stanford or USC. I'd gladly give the Sooners a play in game in Dallas Saturday if they want to strengthen their resume. :p

 

[ShowMeBuck]

Bama should have a cake walk over Florida, but they aren't a lock in the sense that if half the team gets food poisoning and the SEC is out of the playoff. B1G champ gets in regardless and the loser drops below us since MSU would have 2 losses and Iowa didn't play anyone. I think the ACC champ gets in regardless so our only shot is to get an extra large bottle of Visine in the Bama water jug Saturday morning. 1 loss non-CC will get in over a 2+ loss CC and that's our only chance over the SEC and PAC 12. We needed the Sooners to lose. Now we'll likely get an old school Rose Bowl with Stanford or USC. I'd gladly give the Sooners a play in game in Dallas Saturday if they want to strengthen their resume. :p

I guess I just don't see a ACC champ being UNC being in regardless. I know they have been a good story this year but do you think the playoff committe would really view them as being a better team than tOSU? They come from the ACC coastal remember. Their schedule and results aren't eye popping to me. And as previously stated I believe the win over Clemson would need to be narrow. This is the only shot at tOSU making the playoffs because a.) Bama won't lose to FL and b.) even if they did there is no way they would leave the SEC out.

 

[cmstophe]

I'm at peace with whatever happens. Right now, OSU is projected to play a team like Houston...and I won't lie, that's disappointing as hell of an outcome a year after beating #1 and #2 en route to a national championship.

But at the end of the day you can't be mad at anybody other than ourselves. Beating Michigan the way they did on Saturday was so satisfying, but reality set in a couple days later. "Too little, too late" is the mantra I will remember for this season, not necessarily in a bitter way but in a way that we'll wonder what could have been. The top 4 look relatively weak to me- I don't know, Clemson is your gold star undefeated squad? Eh. Ohio State is easily one of the top four teams in the country and could/would beat any of those teams that are in currently. Sadly, you still have to bring it every week and you can't just take a week off vs the first tough team you play in the second to last week of the season just because you don't feel like playing in the rain.

Anyways, just a few random thoughts. Disappointed, but can't complain too much. I'll root for mayhem next weekend, as our hopes are on life support but they do technically still have a shot. Who knows what this committee will do, after all it's only the second year of it. Maybe we will get lucky.