Years from now, we may look back at 2008 and realize that it was a watershed season for Ohio State football. Entering the season, many of us thought that 2008 would be "our year", when the demons of the two national championship losses would be exorcised, and the strong senior leadership of Todd Boeckman, Malcolm Jenkins, James Laurinaitis, and others would take the Buckeyes to the promised land.
Instead, the wheels nearly fell off: sixth-year quarterback Todd Boeckman was unceremoniously benched in favor of a true freshman, and other seniors such as Alex Boone and Marcus Freeman had unexpectedly subpar seasons; Jim Tressel, who was formerly recognized as one of the best big game coaches in America, lost all three of his big games (beating a 3-9 Michigan team that quit on their season can hardly be called a "big game"); and there were uncharacteristic reports of off-the-field indiscretions and rumors of locker room tension and dissention, and a few players received in-season suspensions.
It is a testament to the quality of Ohio State football that a 10-3 season is considered an "off year", but that is the reality of the situation in Columbus - Tressel set the bar high in 2002, and that standard has come back to bite him in recent years. For Buckeye fans, the mantra is now "championship or bust" ... and "championship" means "national championship" and not yet another increasingly meaningless "Big Ten championship". When the team has the audacity to lose
three games in just
one season, then almost everyone associated with that train wreck becomes a target, even three-time All-American linebacker James Laurinaitis, who was deemed "soft" by some fans. But "fans" are "fanatics" after all, and fanaticism can devolve into lunacy pretty quickly at times.
I am going to try to put the 2008 season in some historical context, and then make some predictions about the future of Ohio State football.
1. How Well Is Tressel Doing?
Part of the problem with fans is that we often lack historical perspective - last week is "old news", and last year is "ancient history". In the eight years of the Tressel regime, Ohio State has posted a record of 83-19-0, for a winning percentage of .814, with five Big Ten championships (two outright) and one national championship (1-2 in title games), a 7-1 record against Michigan, and a 4-4 record in bowl games (3-3 in BCS bowls). These accomplishments compare favorably with the best eight-year period in Ohio State football history, namely 1968-1975, when the Buckeyes compiled an overall record of 73-11-1, for a winning percentage of .865, with seven Big Ten championships (three outright) and one national championship (1-5 in title games), a 5-2-1 record against Michigan, and a 2-4 record in bowl games (all were Rose Bowls). So by the numbers, at least, Tressel's
first eight years are almost on a par with Woody's
best eight years ... and Tressel's tenure includes a difficult transition year (2001, when the team's record was 7-5) and another year where the team nearly collapsed in the wake of the MoC incident and in the midst of a quarterback controversy (2004, when the team's record was 8-4).
So, Tressel is doing very well ... or is he? Detractors will point out the fact that Woody (and Earle for that matter) never played a school from the MAC, much less Division 1-AA (although in 1953, Woody did play Penn, an Ivy League school that had long since ceased to be a national power). On the other hand, JT's record has been fattened with several patsies, including a dozen MAC and FCS schools (Akron in 2001, Kent State in 2002, Bowling Green in 2003, Marshall in 2004, Miami of Ohio in 2005, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green in 2006, Akron, Kent State, and Youngstown State in 2007, and Ohio and Youngstown State in 2008); Tressel is a perfect 12-0 against the MAC/FCS schools, and also owns victories over non-BCS programs like San Diego State (2001, 2003, and 2005), San Jose State (2002), and Troy (2008). If we take out those 17 freebies, then Tressel's record against BCS schools is only 66-19-0 (for a winning percentage of .776).
The other knock on Tressel is that he can't win the big game ... or even a moderately large game. During the difficult 2001 campaign, the Buckeyes beat one ranked team
[sup]1[/sup] (Michigan, #20), lost to two ranked teams (Illinois, #12; South Carolina, #13), and also lost to three unranked teams (UCLA, Wisconsin, Penn State). In 2002, Ohio State beat four ranked teams (Miami, #2; Michigan, #9; Washington State, #10; Penn State, #16)
en route to a perfect 14-0 record. The Buckeyes had similar success in 2003, when they also beat four ranked teams (Iowa, #8; Kansas State, #14; Purdue, #18; Bowling Green, #23), but lost to Michigan (#6) and Wisconsin (unranked). In 2004, Ohio State had another rough year, but they did manage to beat one ranked team (Michigan, #14), but lost four times, twice to unranked teams (Iowa, #8; Wisconsin, #17; Northwestern, UR; Purdue, UR).
Since the start of the 2005 season, the Buckeyes have not lost to an unranked team - that's four years and counting. Of course, that is what great teams are supposed to do, but unranked opponents have squashed more than one national championship run in recent years (unranked Michigan beat Penn State in 2005; unranked UCLA beat USC in 2006; unranked Stanford beat USC in 2007; unranked Pitt beat West Virginia in 2007). While the Buckeyes have done a great job avoiding the upsets, they have not fared so well against the top teams. Over the past four seasons, six of Ohio State's eight losses have come to top-5 teams - Texas (#1 in 2005), Penn State (#3 in 2005), Florida (#1 in 2006), Louisiana State (#1 in 2007), Southern Cal (#3 in 2008), and Texas (#4 in 2008) - and the other two have come to top-20 teams - Illinois (#20 in 2007) and Penn State (#8 in 2008). The combined record of the eight teams that have beaten Ohio State since 2005 is 93-12, for a winning percentage of .886. Obviously, that's some quality competition, and there is no shame in losing to good teams.
On the other hand, the Buckeyes have beaten only two top-10 teams since 2005 - Notre Dame (#9 in 2005) and Michigan (#8 in 2006) - and have beaten only five other ranked teams - Texas (#13 in 2006), Penn State (#24 in 2006), Michigan (#18 in 2007), Wisconsin (#24 in 2007), and Michigan State (#24 in 2008). So, the Buckeyes' record against ranked teams since 2005 is a rather mediocre 7-8, and just 2-7 versus top-10 teams, and 1-3 in bowl games. The disturbing thing about Ohio State's record against top-10 teams is that a quality win for the Buckeyes is now tantamount to an upset loss by their opponent. In addition, the Buckeyes' two top-10 wins came against Notre Dame in 2005 and Michigan in 2006, both of which went into serious decline in the immediately succeeding years, indicating that they might have been somewhat overrated to begin with.
By comparison, during the same period, Southern Cal is 14-4 against ranked teams (5-1 versus top-10 teams, 3-1 in bowl games); Texas is 10-3 against ranked teams (4-2 versus top-10 teams, 4-0 in bowl games); Florida is 12-8 against ranked teams (5-5 versus top-10 teams, 3-1 in bowl games); and Louisiana State is 14-7 against ranked teams (4-0 in bowl games, but just 3-5 versus top-10 teams). So, if Ohio State wants to be accounted amongst the nation's truly elite teams, then they will have to improve dramatically against the top-end competition, as beating the has-beens and also-rans of the Big Ten along with a bunch of patsies from the MAC simply isn't going to get the job done.
Now I fully understand that an opponent's ranking goes down when you beat them, and goes up when you lose to them, so the above rankings can certainly be called into question, at least to some extent. For example, in week 2 of the 2006 season, Texas was ranked #2 when Ohio State beat them handily, on the road. However, subsequent events proved that the Longhorns had been overrated to start the season, as they lost to unranked Kansas State and Texas A+M to end the regular season, and squeaked by unranked Iowa in the Alamo Bowl. In 2006, the Buckeyes also beat #2 Michigan to cap a perfect regular season. But after Ohio State "exposed" Michigan in The Game, Southern Cal exposed them even worse in the Rose Bowl. In the long run, teams generally finish the season ranked just about where they belonged in the first place.
As I mentioned above, there is no shame in losing to good teams ... but getting blown out by them is another story altogether. The first game to tarnish Tressel's reputation as a big game coach was the 2006 national championship, which the Buckeyes entered as a strong favorite against the Florida Gators. After scoring on a 93-yard return of the opening kick-off, Ohio State managed only 86 yards of total offense and seven points for the rest of the game. And really, they looked even worse than that - slow, sluggish, out-of-shape, disinterested, undisciplined, unprepared, and poorly coached. Simply put, the game was a fiasco ... but even a fiasco of monumental proportions can be overlooked if it is a one-time occurrence.
After getting spanked by the Gators to end the 2006 season, the Buckeyes rebounded quite well in 2007, and once again gained a berth in the national title game. And once again they got trounced by an SEC team, this time in the person of the LSU Tigers. Although Ohio State looked better in the losing effort (at least there was some effort this time around), they still displayed a distinct lack of discipline (7 penalties for 83 yards) and the inability to make big plays in clutch situations (Brian Robiskie dropping a sure touchdown pass, Austin Spitler whiffing on a blocked punt attempt, a missed assignment on a blocked field goal). Overall, it seemed like the Buckeyes lacked mental toughness ... and a team's lack of mental toughness can usually be attributed to the coaching staff.
Ohio State had a second chance for redemption at the beginning of the 2008 season with a marquee match-up against the Southern Cal Trojans. While the Buckeyes hung tough for a quarter or so, several mental mistakes - a false start in the red zone, a holding call on a touchdown pass, a blown coverage leading to a Trojan score, a bad read and an ill-advised throw on a pick six - quickly put Ohio State in a 21-3 hole, after which the team more or less packed it in for the evening. So, three games on the national stage, three straight blow-out losses, by a combined score of 114-41.
Of course, we all tend to remember the blow-out losses in the 2006 and 2007 BCS title games and the 2008 USC game, but we conveniently forget that each of the remaining five recent losses have been by seven points or less (that is, they were all "one possession" games), and that the Buckeyes had fourth-quarter leads in three of those contests (Texas in 2005 and 2008; Penn State in 2008).
So, at this point, we can summarize the first half of the Tressel era as follows:
1. A rough start with below average seasons in 2001 (7-5) and 2004 (8-4) ...
2. But highlighted by three "big game" victories over Michigan (2001, 2002, and 2004) ...
3. And three "big game" bowl game victories (2002, 2003, and 2004) ...
4. And most importantly the perfect 2002 campaign capped by a huge upset win over highly-favored Miami.
The second half of the Tressel era can best be described as follows:
1. Extreme consistency since 2005 highlighted by big wins against Notre Dame in 2005, and against Texas and Michigan in 2006 ...
2. But marred by blow-out losses to Florida (2006), Louisiana State (2007), and Southern Cal (2008) ...
3. And not, in my opinion, redeemed by close losses to Texas (2005), Penn State (2005), Illinois (2007), Penn State (2008), and Texas (2008), since there are no "moral victories" at Ohio State ...
4. All of which indicates that Ohio State has been a truly great team that has been consistently out-classed by the truly elite teams in big games.
2. The Lingering Effects of the 2006 Title Game
Every team eventually experiences a down cycle, and in retrospect it is often possible to pinpoint the precise moment when such down cycles occurred. Florida State had an amazing run of fourteen straight top-5 finishes from 1987 to 2000 (172-19-1 record, .887 winning percentage, 11-3 record in bowl games, 9 straight ACC championships
[sup]2[/sup], and national championships in 1993 and 1999) ... but in the eight seasons after losing the 2000 national title game to Oklahoma, the Seminoles have posted a record of just 67-36 (.650), have gone 4-4 in bowl games (0-3 in BCS bowls), and have earned only three ACC championships.
Despite Florida State's success, the University of Miami may have had the most impressive run of any team in the past three decades. Prior to 1980, Miami was just another non-conference patsy, and the Hurricanes' overall record from 1927 (their first year of college football) to 1979 was just 270-234-19 (.534). However, in 1980, the program's fortunes improved dramatically, and by 1983 the Canes had won their first national championship. Between 1980 and 2002, Miami compiled an overall record of 226-49-0 (.822), including 12-7 in bowl games, and had won five national championships (1983, 1987, 1989, 1991, 2001). The Hurricanes, riding a 34-game winning streak and looking for back-to-back national titles, experienced their Waterloo in the 2002 BCS championship game, when our very own Ohio State Buckeyes stunned the college football world with a thrilling 31-24 victory in double overtime. While the game seemed like a fluke at the time, Miami never recovered from the shock, and the Hurricanes' record in the succeeding six years is just 48-27 (.640), with only one conference championship.
With the hiring of head coach Bob Devaney in 1962, Nebraska hit the big time. Since that season, the Cornhuskers own the best winning percentage of any Division I-A team, having posted an overall record of 451-114-5 (.796)
[sup]3[/sup], with 23 seasons of at least ten wins each. Although Nebraska won back-to-back national titles in 1970 and 1971, they really hit their stride in the early 90's. From 1993 to 2001, the Huskers won nearly ninety percent of their games (102-12-0, .895 winning percentage), were 6-3 in bowl games (5-2 in major bowls), and won three national championships (1994, 1995, 1997). But Nebraska's last gasp came in 2001, when they got pounded in the BCS title game by the Miami Hurricanes by the score of 37-14. Since that crushing defeat, the Cornhuskers have a combined record of 53-36 (.596), with two losing seasons thrown into the mix.
Ohio State experienced something similar during the glory days of Woody's regime. After being a mediocre team for much of the 1960's, the Buckeyes put together the fabulous run which saw them go 73-11-1 (.865) from 1968-1975, and win seven Big Ten championships as well as the 1968 national title. Regardless of their overall success, the Buckeyes just couldn't seem to get over the top, as season-ending losses in 1969, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1974, and 1975 cost them national championships, and a tie versus Michigan in 1973 marred an otherwise perfect season; Ohio State's only bowl victory during that stretch of near-misses was a 42-21 hammering of Southern Cal in the 1974 Rose Bowl, but not even that impressive showing could move the Buckeyes (10-0-1) ahead of a perfect Notre Dame squad (11-0-0) in the 1973 final AP poll. Ohio State had one last shot at greatness in 1979, but fell a single point short of a national championship, as they lost a heartbreaker to Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl, 17-16. After that 1979 season, Ohio State entered a prolonged period of relative malaise that saw them go 188-73-5 (.716) in the twenty-two years prior to their national championship in 2002. While Ohio State's decline was not as precipitous as the others mentioned above, it was certainly much longer (at least so far); in addition, the Buckeyes won just six Big Ten championships (one outright) during that span, and they were truly relevant on the national stage only a few times (1995, 1996, 1998).
So we now have four examples of a powerhouse program losing a national championship game - Ohio State in 1979, Florida State in 2000, Nebraska in 2001, and Miami in 2002 - and then falling off of the college football map for the next several seasons. Other similar examples probably exist.
[sup]4[/sup] The question remains - did the same thing happen to Ohio State after the 2006 BCS title game?
Ohio State has certainly seen a decline in fortunes after the Florida debacle, but the Buckeyes still managed to post double-digit wins in both 2007 (11-2) and 2008 (10-3). Of course, it remains to be seen whether the past two seasons mark the gradual start of a long slide, or whether they merely represent those shallow valleys that must be negotiated before one reaches the highest heights.
3. Is the 2009 Season the Start of a New Era of Ohio State Football?
And that uncertainty is why 2009 should be an interesting year for Ohio State football. All teams, even the greatest, go in cycles, and history has shown us that sometimes a team may take years to recover from the loss of a single important game. While the jury is still out on the current Ohio State team, I believe that the Buckeyes are poised to make another national championship run in the near future, and that they are on solid ground for the long term.
A. Jim Tressel
As Exhibit "A", I present Jim Tressel. Prior to being hired as Ohio State's head man, Tressel had the reputation of being a "big game" coach (4-2 in FCS championship games), and that reputation was certainly merited during his first five seasons in Columbus (4-1 versus Michigan, 4-1 in bowl games, national title in 2002). While the Buckeyes have continued their success against Michigan with wins in each of the last three seasons, they have had no success in other big games, dropping their last three bowl games (Florida in 2006, LSU in 2007, Texas in 2008) along with their 2008 regular season contest with Southern Cal and two games against a top-ten Penn State squad (2005, 2008).
Although Ohio State has had its problems in big games recently, Jim Tressel didn't suddenly become incompetent on January 8, 2007. Granted, the Buckeyes came out flat that night, and for that the coaching staff bears at least part of the blame. But the succeeding big game losses have been more about lack of talent and poor execution than lack of preparation and poor coaching. The Buckeyes were competitive in the losses to Louisiana State (2007), Penn State (2008), and Texas (2008), and even the 2008 Southern Cal game was close until the team got into a deep hole as the result of a few key mistakes from a few key players. Given better talent, Jim Tressel will once again win big games for Ohio State.
B. Talent
But is the talent there? While predicting any given prospect's success at the college level typically ranges from difficult to impossible, the best way to judge a team's overall level of talent is to look at the rankings of its recruiting classes. For the recruiting classes of 2002 to 2006, the Buckeyes signed a total of 103 recruits with an average ranking (Rivals and Scout combined) of 3.48 "stars" per recruit. For the past three recruiting classes, however, the Buckeyes signed 60 recruits with an average combined rating of 3.81 "stars" per recruit. While the difference between 3.81 and 3.48 may appear slight, it actually represents an improvement of nearly ten percent.
Moreover, two of Tressel's earlier recruiting classes were marred by severe attrition. The class of 2003, which numbered just fifteen recruits to begin with, saw nine players leave the program early, and the class of 2004 lost eight of its twenty-five signees; of the seventeen early departures, twelve were for conduct, while only five were the result of injuries or transfers. Beginning with the 2005 recruiting class, the Buckeyes have lost only eleven players, with six of those being for academic or disciplinary reasons. The dramatic reduction in recruiting "misses" means that Ohio State has been doing a much better job in recent years of stock piling talent, which is key for both continuity and depth.
Finally, with the past two classes, the staff has addressed their two major weaknesses in the realm of recruiting, namely offensive line and quarterback. From 2003 to 2007, the Buckeyes signed a grand total of ten offensive linemen (two per class) with an average star ranking of 3.65; in 2008 and 2009, they brought in a total of seven offensive linemen with an average star ranking of 4.21, plus they obtained former five-star guard Justin Boren by way of transfer. So, in just two years, Tressel and Company completely reloaded along the offensive line, and with significantly better prospects.
The other chronic area of concern for Ohio State recruiting has been at the quarterback position. Since signing two Elite Eleven prospects in 2002 (Troy Smith ans Justin Zwick), the Buckeyes suffered a five year drought at quarterback. In 2003, they reached for a local prospect in Todd Boeckman, who had mixed success at Ohio State; in 2004, they were shut out after Joe Bauserman elected to pursue a career in professional baseball (he finally joined the team before the start of the 2007 season); in 2005, they signed another local prospect, Rob Schoenhoft, who was a mismatch in an offense designed for a mobile quarterback, and he soon transferred; in 2006, they took a flyer on Georgia prospect Antonio Henton, who had difficulty in picking up the system, and also transferred; and in 2007, they were shut out again. The staff finally broke the curse in 2008 when Terrelle Pryor, the clear cut #1 overall prospect in the nation, inked with Ohio State. With a superstar quarterback operating behind a revamped line, the Buckeyes' offense appears to be set for at least the next two seasons.
So on paper at least, the Buckeyes have improved their talent in the past three seasons - better recruits, less attrition, much more help at positions of need. Now let's take a look at the actual starters at the beginning of the 2008 season and the projected starters for the 2009 season:
Position...........2008 Starter................2009 Starter.....
Quarterback........Todd Boeckman...............Terrelle Pryor
Tailback...........Beanie Wells................Boom Herron
Fullback...........Brandon Smith...............Zach Boren
Wide Receiver......Brian Robiskie..............DeVier Posey
Wide Receiver......Brian Hartline..............Dane Sanzenbacher
Tight End..........Rory Nicol..................Jake Ballard
Left Tackle........Alex Boone..................Andy Miller
Left Guard.........Steve Rehring...............Justin Boren
Center.............Jim Cordle..................Michael Brewster
Right Guard........Ben Person..................Bryant Browning
Right Tackle.......Bryant Browning.............Jim Cordle
Defensive End......Cameron Heyward.............Cameron Heyward
Defensive End......Lawrence Wilson.............Thad Gibson
Defensive Tackle...Nader Abdallah..............Doug Worthington
Defensive Tackle...Todd Denlinger..............Dexter Larimore
Middle Linebaker...James Laurinaitis...........Brian Rolle
Will Linebacker....Ross Homan..................Ross Homan
Sam Linebacker.....Marcus Freeman..............Austin Spitler
Strong Safety......Kurt Coleman................Kurt Coleman
Free Safety........Anderson Russell............Anderson Russell
Cornerback.........Malcolm Jenkins.............Andre Amos
Cornerback.........Chimdi Chekwa...............Chimdi Chekwa
The Buckeyes lost three of their all-time greats after the 2008 season - namely tailback Beanie Wells, middle linebacker James Laurinaitis, and cornerback Malcolm Jenkins - and the team will obviously experience a significant drop off in talent at those positions. No offense to Boom Herron, Brian Rolle, and Andre Amos, but there's just no way that those guys can replace legends, at least not right away. However, at most of the other nineteen starting positions, Ohio State should see either some improvement or no noticeable decline in talent.
Each of the returning starters - Browning, Chekwa, Coleman, Cordle, Heyward, and Russell - should be better just with added experience, so that takes care of six positions. Jermale Hines also returns as the "star" in nickel situations.
Along the offensive line, Cordle and Browning have now been reassigned to positions that better suit their relative strengths, and Boren and Brewster represent major upgrades from the past season. The only spot on the offensive line that might see some backsliding is left tackle, where Andy Miller replaces the talented but inconsistent Alex Boone; the good news is that Miller's back-ups are the highly-touted J.B. Shugarts and Mike Adams, both of whom were five-star signees in 2008, so I'm not worried about that position.
At quarterback, Terrelle Pryor has far greater potential than Todd Boeckman, and of course the true freshman Pryor outplayed the sixth-year senior Boeckman last season to earn the starting job in week four. While Boeckman did experience some success during his career, primarily during his junior season, Pryor has clearly superior physical talent, and he also seems to possess more confidence and leadership skills.
Fullback was a clear weakness in 2008, and the true freshmen who will be manning the position this year (Zach Boren and Adam Homan) should be at least somewhat of an upgrade.
Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline were steady players, and they will be difficult to replace. However, the Buckeyes have a slew of young receivers in the mix, including the equally steady Dane Sanzenbacher and former five-star prospect DeVier Posey. At this point, the slight edge has to go to the 2008 duo due to experience and proven production, but it would not surprise me to see the tables reversed by the end of the season. At tight end, Jake Ballard and Rory Nicol are a wash.
On defense, things get interesting. As mentioned above, Laurinaitis and Jenkins are virtually irreplaceable, and Marcus Freeman was a solid three-year starter. Despite losing three key defenders, the Buckeyes should be stronger at every other position on defense, especially along the lines, where Thad Gibson is expected to have an All American season. And all throughout the defense there is young talent to provide valuable depth (Nathan Williams, Keith Wells, Garrett Goebel, Johnny Simon, Etienne Sabino, Dorian Bell, Storm Klein, Andrew Sweat, Travis Howard, Orhian Johnson).
So, three players will be impossible to replace (Wells, Laurinaitis, Jenkins), and three others will be difficult to replace (Robiskie, Hartline, Freeman), but the 2009 Buckeyes should have a talent upgrade at each of the other sixteen starting positions ... and the talent along both lines will be much improved. And as they say, you win games in the trenches.
C. Conclusion.
With solid leadership and direction from head coach Jim Tressel, and with a recent upswing in talent and depth, the Buckeyes should regain their status as an elite team, a reputation that they have been trying to reclaim since the Florida debacle. Although the 2009 team may experience some growing pains - and they will have two tough contests against Southern Cal and Penn State - by the end of the season the Buckeyes might be playing the best football in the country. And in 2010, the Buckeyes should be favored to win it all.
Of course, the Buckeyes still need to prove it on the field, beginning today against Navy. Specifically, they need to prove that the 2006 BCS championship game was not the swansong of Ohio State football, that Ohio State has not gone the way of Florida State, Nebraska, and Miami.
D. Predictions
2009: 10-3, with some growing pains
2010: National championship behind Terrelle Pryor and a top-flight defense
2011: Still going strong with blue chip talent in the pipeline
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[sup]1[/sup] A "ranked team" means a team that finished the season ranked in the AP poll, and that team's "ranking" means its position in the final AP poll for the season in question.
[sup]2[/sup] Prior to the 1992 season, Florida State was an independent. Florida State won the ACC championship for every year from 1992 to 2000.
[sup]3[/sup] Ohio State is second, with a record of 408-126-9 (.760).
[sup]4[/sup] Will Oklahoma (2003, 2004, 2008 title game losses) and Southern Cal (2005 title game loss) also be included some day?
