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Dillon Gabriel passes Beck, Ewers as Heisman favorite

Dillon_Gabriel_and_X_way-too-early_candidates_to_win_2024_Heisman_Trophy_image_1.webp


Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy with +750 odds at ESPN BET after moving past Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers in an atypical July change for college football's highest honor.

Top Heisman Trophy Odds​

PLAYER, SCHOOL ODDS
Dillon Gabriel, Oregon +750
Carson Beck, Georgia +800
Quinn Ewers, Texas +900
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss +1500
Will Howard, Ohio State +1600
Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee +1600
Jalen Milroe, Alabama +1600
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU +2200
Cameron Ward, Miami +2200
Conner Weigman, Texas A&M +2200

Beck and Ewers, who had been the favorites since February, are +800 and +900, respectively.

Gabriel began July with 10-1 odds at ESPN BET. He had been as long as 14-1 at other sportsbooks before an uptick of action showed up on the Ducks quarterback over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

The SuperBook in Las Vegas started receiving bets on Gabriel on Sunday, causing his odds to tighten from 14-1 to 9-1.

"I think there were some maybe influential people that hopped on it and said they liked it on some public spaces," Chase Michaelson, oddsmaker for the SuperBook, told ESPN. "It's people we respect that like Gabriel, and I think there are lots of reasons to like him."

Gabriel has put up gaudy numbers at Oklahoma and UCF. He passed for 3,660 yards with 30 touchdowns and six interceptions with the Sooners last season before transferring to Oregon, where he inherits what's expected to be an explosive Ducks offense.

More money has been bet on Gabriel to win the Heisman than any other player at ESPN BET. At BetMGM sportsbooks, the senior has attracted more than twice as much money as any other player offered in the Heisman odds since July 4.

Gabriel, at +750, would have the longest odds of any Heisman favorite entering the season in the past 15 years, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
 

Why, statistically, Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Miami, or LSU will have the next Heisman winner

The Ohio State Buckeyes are one of the likeliest programs to have College Football's Heisman Trophy winner for the 2026 season.

First and foremost, because there hasn't been a non-WR/QB winner in over a decade, Julian Sayin is coming off a Heisman finalist season, and Jeremiah Smith is the most hyped-up player in the sport.

CBS Sports' Brad Crawford noted that every winner since Bryce Young was also a transfer, which particularly bodes well for Sayin. He also put the Oregon Ducks, with former UCLA transfer QB Dante Moore, the Indiana Hoosiers, with TCU Horned Frogs transfer QB Josh Hoover, the Miami Hurricanes, with Duke Blue Devils transfer QB Darian Mensah, and the LSU Tigers, with Arizona State Sun Devils transfer QB Sam Leavitt, in the same category that sees the state of the game as "good news."

"The last four Heisman winners have been transfers. Sign of the times, right? Fernando Mendoza (Indiana, 2025), Travis Hunter (Colorado, 2024), Jayden Daniels (LSU, 2023) and Caleb Williams (USC, 2022) all struck gold at different programs from where they originally signed, which is great news for the quarterbacks at Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Miami and LSU, should history repeat itself. Three of those elites added new signal callers this offseason, while returning starters Julian Sayin and Dante Moore for the Buckeyes and Ducks, respectively, were once transfers themselves," Crawford wrote.

Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith have obvious Heisman narratives in 2026

2026 is set up to be a major one for Sayin and/or Smith's Heisman narrative. For one, the Buckeyes face perhaps the most daunting schedule in the entire country, with perhaps the toughest non-conference game against the Texas Longhorns in Austin. Meanwhile, their showdowns against the Iowa Hawkeyes, USC Trojans, Oregon, Indiana, and TTUN represent the most projected preseason top-25 opponents on the schedule any team will face this fall.

Beyond that, Arthur Smith's system could be built for Smith to thrive, but of course, Sayin can win the award by having many of his game-winning throws go to Chris Henry Jr. or the rest of the receiving corps, which have failed to generate much hype this spring beyond those two and feel-good story Brock Boyd.

There are many reasons why voters would have an Ohio State player at the top of mind this December when the decision is cast. It's been exactly two decades since Troy Smith won the award, marking the longest period since the QB's win that a Buckeye has won it. Smith ended a 19-year drought, while Archie Griffin broke an 18-year drought with his win in 1973.
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