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The Game, tOSU at ttun, Nov. 27th,12pm FOX (3654 down to 0)

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Systems_id said:
Can I get a Gambling for Dummies translation?
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OSU laying 8.5 points to tsun is an item on the shelf of a store.
That item is in ultra high demand (all the money/bets is on OSU).
That store just dropped the price.

Those who have been around the block with this type of price fluctuation smell fuckery about.
 
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Buckeye86 said:
Vegas is extremely confident that it will be a close game, but not necessarily that UM will win given that the spread is still more than a touchdown.
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I’m also hopeful that Vegas is relying too much on their algorithms, which factor in the truly pathetic defense early in the season and not the current, much more competent iteration.

To me, the UM D is the biggest wildcard, because it’s hard to say what they’re going to be doing under the first year coordinator that relies on a bunch of bullshit to hide their overall lack of talent.

If Ohio State struggles to crack whatever they’re doing early, it will be a close game for however long it takes to open things up.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
OSU laying 8.5 points to tsun is an item on the shelf of a store.
That item is in ultra high demand (all the money/bets is on OSU).
That store just dropped the price.

Those who have been around the block with this type of price fluctuation smell fuckery about.
Click to expand...

I believe you have this backwards. The line moves the direction of the betting action. If the line moves from OSU -8.5 to OSU -8, that means more people are betting on TTUN.
 
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Buckeye86 said:
I’m also hopeful that Vegas is relying too much on their algorithms, which factor in the truly pathetic defense early in the season and not the current, much more competent iteration.

To me, the UM D is the biggest wildcard, because it’s hard to say what they’re going to be doing under the first year coordinator that relies on a bunch of bullshit to hide their overall lack of talent.

If Ohio State struggles to crack whatever they’re doing early, it will be a close game for however long it takes to open things up.
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The algorithm prediction has been my thought as well. I believe it's hard to model an all or nothing event like when you have a style match-up like this. It isn't going to average out to 37-30 kind of thing...it's either going to be both teams slogging around in the mud under 35 if tsun can impose it's style or its going to get out of hand quick if OSU can impose their style.

That might not be mathematically true, but it makes me feel better anyway.

NastyNatiBuck said:
I believe you have this backwards. The line moves the direction of the betting action. If the line moves from OSU -8.5 to OSU -8, that means more people are betting on TTUN.
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Yeah, that's what is concerning. Price is going opposite of how it should behave. Reverse line movement is something that we've discussed on here before. It isn't 100% (nothing is) but you see it enough over the years and you learn to be weary of it.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
The algorithm prediction has been my thought as well. I believe it's hard to model an all or nothing event like when you have a style match-up like this. It isn't going to average out to 37-30 kind of thing...it's either going to be both teams slogging around in the mud under 35 if tsun can impose it's style or its going to get out of hand quick if OSU can impose their style.

That might not be mathematically true, but it makes me feel better anyway.



Yeah, that's what is concerning. Price is going opposite of how it should behave. Reverse line movement is something that we've discussed on here before. It isn't 100% (nothing is) but you see it enough over the years and you learn to be weary of it.
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A lot of intangibles also line up for a close game: at the very least cold, if not worse, weather to hamper the explosive offense more than the 1986 offense, first year starting QB who has struggled at times, on the road, etc.
 
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bukIpower said:
Also should add other interesting facts...

If they aren't great at getting negative plays, aren't elite vs the run, are undersized, and have struggles in the red zone? Yeah something tells me this is a 300 yard rushing game.
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So if I had my wishes this would be the third time in the last three meetings that an underclassman had a breakout game. Olave in 18 and Wilson in 19. Smith - Nijiba should have had his in 20 and he's now a known commodity, so how about if Henderson would go wild and hang a Bitchmafucka +20 on 'em? I could really get behind that. Or Fleming. Or Harrison Jr. Or Willams.
 
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Buckeye86 said:
Vegas is extremely confident that it will be a close game, but not necessarily that UM will win given that the spread is still more than a touchdown.
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They also thought we'd wipe out PED and thought our game with Rutgers would be closer too (-15). They've been way off a lot this year with us.

Mainly because we don't know which team will show up. The disciplined and nasty team or the team that takes penalties and allows big plays.
 
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bukIpower said:
They also thought we'd wipe out PED and thought our game with Rutgers would be closer too (-15). They've been way off a lot this year with us.

Mainly because we don't know which team will show up. The disciplined and nasty team or the team that takes penalties and allows big plays.
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Examples of algorithms struggling with style infliction imo.

If Stroud and Day can handle the multiple looks of the tsun defense and they play clean overall, this doesn't have to be all that close.

On the other side of the field, you have to hope your DC can stay one step ahead of Day, pressure/confuse/frustrate Stroud, contain Henderson and get help in the form of penalties and turnovers.

A lot more has to go tsun's way than has to go OSU's way.
 
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