No explanation of DSA this week. If you don't know what it is or how it works, this post is just another snowflake in a blizzard of posts about this game. It's a BP thing, you wouldn't understand.
Those of you still reading might remember that DSA was extended two weeks ago to include something that was called, for lack of a better name, "rigidity". It measures how differential statistics are compiled. Teams that beat up on lesser opponents but struggle against the best teams (Wisconsin) have a negative rigidity, while teams that have few blow outs but take care of business against the better teams on their schedule (Ohio State) have a positive rigidity.
Both DSA and Rigidity numbers were calculated after Wisconsin's game against Indiana, but were not posted because I learned long ago that people don't want to see stats if they're bad news. Long story short: Old-fashioned DSA predicted a 1-5 point victory for Wisconsin last week. In fact, Wisconsin's DSC (DSO divided by DSD) was significantly higher than Ohio State's last week (2.032 to 1.775). That big a difference usually spells trouble.
Rigidity changed the calculation though:
- Rigidity predicted that Ohio State should have been able to move the ball better than they did against Wisconsin. Urban himself has said that they buttoned it up to avoid turnovers and that they should have fed Carlos more. This, to me anyway, vindicates the rigidity numbers.
- Rigidity predicted that Wisconsin would be able to move the ball on the ground against the Buckeyes, but that they would score less than DSA predicted. Both of these held true.
- Having had two weeks to tweek the numbers, I came upon a way to use rigidity to adjust the score calculation. The score for the Wisconsin game predicted by this method? 21-14 OSU
Admittedly, this method misses the score at the end of regulation by 7 points; but referring back to #1 above, I believe the buttoned up offense and the Run and Hyde yards that were left on the field actually vindicate the rigidity methodology. Ohio State should have scored at least one touchdown more in regulation. Oh well.
As for this week, once again old-fashioned DSA is not all that pretty.
- TSUN's DSC is 1.922, while OSU's has fallen to 1.773
- Taking each team's scoring offense times the other team's DSD predicts a 26-23 Buckeye victory.
- Taking each team's scoring defense times the other team's DSO predicts a 30-27 loss.
The rigidity adjustments however, have even more to say about this game than about the Wisconsin game:
- Both teams should be able to move the ball between the twenties
- TSUN should struggle in the red-zone
- OSU, not so much
DISCLAIMER
Before I provide the Ridgity Adjusted prediction I need to say that I do NOT believe that the numbers below reflect what will actually happen on Saturday. TSUN's rigidity numbers, especially on offense, are partially a product of Gardner's insertion at a point in the schedule where they have played ONLY cellar-dwellers up to now. This fact suggests that TSUN will score more than the prediction below suggests. As for the prediction for OSU's score: I have a hard time believing it myself, but I can't give a rational reason why it should be adjusted downward. If only because of the nature of the rivalry, my gut says OSU is unlikely to come within 10 points of the prediction below.
Rigidity Adjusted DSA prediction
Buckeyes: 47
Weasels: 19
Seriously
As mentioned in the disclaimer, I do not believe that OSU will beat TSUN by 4 touchdowns. I have been over-analyzing games with numbers for decades; and I can honestly say that this is the first time that my calculations are more optimistic than my gut. My calculations are usually more accurate than my gut, and I hope that's the case here.
Go Bucks
