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Game Thread THE GAME, 11/26/16, 12pm ET, ABC

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just moved to OSU-4.5, t44.5, but note that 5 and 4 are relatively dead numbers in a spread cap (4 less so, but nothing like a 3, 6 or 7), so this was expected..you see a decent bit of movement around 4-5 but in this spot it's almost always ppl just gamblefiring on their squad and shifting the juice (everyone is just waking up). smart money doesn't need to bother snap firing at a 4.5 or 5 very often because of the nature of how scores pan out, so it waits. still doesn't appear to be anything large on scUM at that number.

but if the dropping number makes you nervous, keep in mind this is just a market and there is a LOT of casual public money on both sides and people seeing they're getting dog "value" or plus money on michigan just fire away to have a sweat, and the number at the end of the week has usually had all the actual betting value squeezed out of it already by the guys paying attention 3 days ago, so a closing number of 4 looks nasty compared to the 7 opener, but the wiseguys aren't out taking every 4.5 and 5 they see because they already have a 6, 6.5 or 7. if the public drives the line past a breaking point (in either direction) where the sharps see some value start to appear again then they will chime in, but the line is now sitting right about where it should be..and that's based on metrics.

moral of the story: the public is usually wrong. vegas didn't build itself.

and as i was typing this out, the sharpest book out there went back to 5 :wink:

FUCK YOU ANN YOU DIRTY WHORE
 
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