There are few who would love to see Georgia beat Bama this year more than many of us on this website, including me. But here are the stats and evidence (spelled "evidents" if you belong to any cults centered in the middle of Pennsylvania) that you can't beat, yet:
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2021 isn't over yet and Georgia has no banners to raise, yet. Georgia still trails Alabama by 4 appearances and 3 wins. Georgia may win the next 4. And good for them if they do. I hope they don't, only because I'd like for Ohio State to win one or two of those. (Or four.)
Bama has been the BAMF for long enough. And until they actually go a couple of years without making the playoffs, I'm not going to be the one to take the title from them.
Outstanding analysis.
I have no valid refutation to the stats and evidence you've presented, nor any logical rebuttal to the arguments you've asserted based on those facts.
I can, however, present an alternative analytical philosophy that presents a scenario that reaches a different conclusion than the one you employed.
While your analytical philosophy is contingent on historically-driven historical focus on past
tangible success; the approach I adhere to is based on a forecast-driven future focus on
intangible success and potentiality (See
FiveThirtyEight presidential election prediction polls or epistemological pandemic spread predictions as examples).
Two weeks ago,
Kirby Smart famously said, "If you don’t recruit, there’s no coach out there that can out-coach recruiting. I don’t care who you are. The best coach to ever play the game better be a good recruiter because no coaching is going to out-coach players. Anybody will tell you that our defense is good because we have good players."
Kirby is no politician, he backs up his talk with action. He is a SAVAGE on the trail. An absolute SAVAGE. Now that he's compiled top 5 classes, composed of 5 star players, for 5 years straight, you're seeing the fruit of his labor get bore out on the field of play.
Sick Old Nick (S.O.N.), on the other hand, has been slippin'. He's been slippin' on the trail, and it's beginning to show on the field.
Let's refer to The Chart again:
As I mentioned before, Georgia is currently out-acquiring Bama for 5 STAR talent at a rate of 3.1% over a 5 year period, or to be more germane, 0.62% a year.
The dominance is not mutually exclusive to 5 STAR athletes, but overall talent:
https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/
With the commitment of Julian Humphries earlier this afternoon, Georgia current has the #1 recruiting class for 2022 (as of the time that this comment is posted). Kirby is rapidly INCREASING the talent gap between Georgia and Bama.
Bama currently has 3 5 STAR commitments for 2022. Assuming that the 0.62% 5 STAR acquisition ratio continues this year, it's projected that Georgia will have 4 5 STARS based on the trends (since it's impossible to have 3.62 players).
Looking at on-field results in 2021, Georgia's recruiting superiority off the field is finally beginning to pay off in football superiority on the field. Observing common opponents (fLLLLLorida), Bama struggled to beat them and was dominated for 3 quarters of that game barely squeaking out a 2 point win, or as I call it, a Moral Defeat. Georgia, on the other hand, DOMINATED the crocs for 4 quarters straight, cruising to a 27 point victory. Tomorrow, Georgia plays Tennessee, another common opponent, and we will have much more evidence to work with when it's all said and done.
Based on the evidence thus far, however, Georgia is projected to easily beat Bama by 2 scores, and likely 2 TD's in the SECCG. This is an absolute LOCK. Not just any lock, but the LOCK OF THE CENTURY!
Kirby will drag his HAIRY DAWG NUTZ all across his S.O.N.'s face over and over for 3 1/2-4 hours straight in Atlanta on December 4, 2021.
On that day, Kirby will firmly assert his superiority over his S.O.N.: More 5 Stars, Higher Rated Recruiting Classes, and Results on the Field — a CLEAN SWEEP Baby!!!!!!!
Once Kirby breaks the ice, by putting his S.O.N. on ice and winning a Natty, he will very likely 10X his recruiting results! The defense is already STACKED and the offense is STACKED in the LOS and skill positions. But once we get a Natty, we'll be well in position to have up to, but not limited to, 3 5 STAR qbs on the roster ready to sling the ball at any time.
Kirby is one of the most underrated offensive minds in the game because of his defensive acumen. He's currently putting up 38.4 points per game with a walk-on at qb. Once he gets the qb room loaded....WATCH OUT!
Ergo, empirical evidence of recruiting trends, as well as projected on-field results, strongly suggests that Kirby is surpassing his S.O.N., and is quickly increasing the gap between the two programs. Furthermore, by the time that 1-Day Sobriety Chip Sark/Lame Kitten/Dopey Dab-0-wins-vs-Kirby, or whichever retread loser they'll get to replace S.O.N., becomes the HC at Tuscaloosa, the Dawgs will be so far ahead of Bama that they will be a complete non-factor, effectively what they were from 1992-2007.
Thanks for reading.
GO DAWGS.