How Alabama's loss to LSU impacts College Football Playoff
No. 1 LSU beat No. 2 Alabama 46-41 at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday in a "Game of the Century," at least according to the AP Top 25 poll.
The first half turned out to be the worst nightmare for the Crimson Tide, who made too many mistakes. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow (31 of 39 passing, 393 yards, three touchdowns) capitalized on those mistakes in a performance that will put him at the front of the Heisman Trophy conversation. The Tide rebounded in a big way in the second half, but it wasn't enough to overcome the 20-point halftime deficit.
LSU (9-0, 5-0 SEC) now has the drop on Alabama (8-1, 5-1) in the SEC West Division and College Football Playoff races. It's time to sort out the other implications of this outcome:
Alabama is down, not out, of Playoff
At halftime, we would have said the Tide were, but given the final score, Alabama still might have a chance to make the Playoff for a sixth consecutive season.
Alabama knows it will not play for the SEC championship for the second time in three years and will not have the benefit of strength of schedule. That's what makes Saturday's loss almost impossible to overcome. That said, Penn State's loss to Minnesota kept the door open ever so slightly. Who does the Playoff committee put No. 4 right now?
Alabama will drop to somewhere between Nos. 7-10 next week. Its best bet is to rely on Ohio State, LSU and Clemson going undefeated, which would create a scramble for No. 4.
Can Alabama steal the final spot? It would require a ton of things to happen, but look at the remaining Power 5 teams with one loss or no losses:
— Georgia needs to lose in the SEC championship game and finish with two losses.
— Baylor needs to lose twice. The Bears play Oklahoma and Texas in the regular season. Oklahoma then needs to lose again, just to be sure. That's going to be tough, but the Sooners still play Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State.
— Minnesota needs to lose twice — Wisconsin and Iowa are on the regular-season schedule — and Penn State needs to lose at Ohio State. That takes the shine off the Big Ten championship game.
— Oregon and Utah need to lose again, or one needs to lose in the regular season, then beat the other in the Pac-12 Conference championship game. If the Ducks win the Pac-12 with two losses, then Alabama needs to run it up in the Iron Bowl against Auburn, given that the Ducks lost to Auburn in the season opener. That would leave a two-loss Pac-12 champion.
That might seem ridiculous now, given what just happened, but just give it time to play out. Remember, a two-loss team has never made the College Football Playoff. The Death Star might have been blown up again, but Alabama always builds another one. The only question is whether it will have to wait until next season.
LSU should jump Ohio State for No. 1
The fact that Ohio State transfer quarterback Joe Burrow took the Heisman Trophy lead by beating Alabama can leave Buckeyes' fans with conflicting feelings. On one hand, Alabama is out of the way. On the other hand, Burrow might do the same thing to his former team. He's that good in passing game coordinator Joe Brady's offense, and LSU will take the top spot from the Buckeyes in the next set of rankings.
Which one would you put at No. 1? The team beating everybody by 40-plus points per game? Or the one that has knocked off four top-10 teams?
Why does this matter? The one who finishes No. 2 in the ranking will likely get Clemson in the semifinal matchup. No. 1 will get one of those one-loss teams. So, let the LSU-Ohio State back-and-forth begin. It will get vicious on Twitter.
We are here for all of it.
Can two SEC teams make the Playoff?
We put out the Alabama scenario, which requires a lot of steps with four weeks of football remaining before the Playoff rankings are unveiled. The existential question will be whether the Crimson Tide deserve to get in without playing for an SEC championship.
Another team still in play is Georgia, if it wins the SEC championship. LSU has four victories against top-10 teams, and that includes victories at Texas and Alabama. The Bulldogs have to do their part, but it could happen given the one-loss pileup that added new members with Alabama and Penn State this week.
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