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Rutgers 39, WEST VIRGINIA 41 (final, 3 OT)

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DSA

Differential Statistical Analysis for the Rutgers-West Virginia game:

Quick Explanation (skip if you're familiar with DSA):​


DSA provides a pair of predictions for a game based on statistics. If the predictions were good for anything other than discussion, I wouldn't post them here, but would rather keep them a closely guarded secret and use them to make lots of money. In short, this is "For Entertainment Purposes Only".​


The first step in DSA is to find each teams Differential Offense and Differential Defense. Differential Offense (Defense) is how well you do offensively compared to your opponents' average defense (offense). It is expressed as a percentage.​


As an example, USC's Differential Total Defense (DTD) is 86%. This means that USC hold teams to 86% of their average Total Offense. By comparison, USC's Differential Scoring Defense (DSD) is 75%, indicating that they hold teams to 75% of their average Scoring Offense.​


The second step of this two-step process is to multiply each team's average offense by the other team's differential defense; and to multiply each team's average defense by the other team's differential offense. This gives two sets of predictions for the game.​


The Numbers

WVU Yards: 326 - 333
NJSU Yards: 305 - 309

WVU Points: 20 - 22
NJSU Points: 23 - 23 (both methods predict 23 points)


Other Factors

Factors affecting the numbers this week include:
  • Momentum
    • WVU is coming off a tough loss to the South Florida Bulls.
    • Advantage New Jersey State?
  • 3rd Down Performance
    • WVU Offense: 51.22% -- 5th in the NCAA
    • NJSU Offense: 40.85% -- 41st in the NCAA
    • WVU Defense: 42.38% -- 92nd in the NCAA
    • NJSU Defense: 29.22% -- 8th in the NCAA
    • Advantage NJSU
I must admit, this one didn't exactly roll out the way I expected.


Note: All numbers, with the exception of 3rd down performance, were calculated after all games involving Div. IA and Div. IAA teams have been factored out for every Div. IA team.
 
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10-6 Rutgers at the half.

Ray Rice 9 carries for 37 yards, 1 TD.

Steve Slaton 9 carries for 65 yards, 2 catches for 31.

Pat White not playing.
 
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