Reds Tidbits (2012 Season)

[jlb1705]

All of that and the silly Reds are about to be 1.5 games out of first. LOL

Rubber match for the series tomorrow, and rubber match for the road trip. A winning road trip through Atlanta and New York is not all that bad. Of course, there's no way they'll do it so I don't know why I even brought up the possibility.

I agree that the Reds need to get their 9th inning approach sorted out. On the one hand, I'm glad to see that Duh-sty is willing to pull Marshall in the 9th inning if it's necessary. On the other hand, it makes it all the more maddening that he steadfastly refused to do so when it was Cordero out there.

I wish it were as simple as saying that an out is an out, and that if you can get guys out in the 7th or 8th you should be able to do it in the 9th. I don't think that's really the case in practice though. People who think like Duh-sty have been around in this game long before him. Everybody says that the 9th inning is different than all the others, and that closer's role is different from all the others. The players become indoctrinated with it, and it affects how they think and how they perform, for better or worse.

Given that everybody in the game is indoctrinated, I think the Reds need to come up with somebody who has the mentality that reacts positively to closing. Skill is secondary to me at the moment. Just give me somebody who reacts to that situation by delivering at their personal peak, even if that person's peak is just adequate compared to a more talented guy. I still think Marshall is a good pitcher and has the capacity to be a great reliever for the Reds, but I think he needs to be back in the role he was used in with the Cubs.

I do not want to see Chapman closing. I think he could be good at it, but it's such a waste. The clock is ticking for his time in a Reds uniform. Unless the Reds blow up his arm (distinct possibility of course), there's no way he's not with another team for his second contract. The Reds need to get as many TOR starts and innings out of him as they can. Unfortunately, they seem content to piss away that time and money by keeping him in the pen. I fear that once he's made the nominal closer, there's no turning back and he'll be in the pen for good as a Red.

 

[scott91575]

I dont want to get into a an argument about what "talent" is or is not, but I'll just say that Cueto is the more talented SP and Chapman has the most natural talent. Whatever the intelligible difference, it does not really matter, all that matters for the purpose of my argument is that Chapman is not a sure-fire stud out of the rotation, despite his talent, and because of our need in the bullpen and the perceived strength of our rotation, it was and is best to use him there this season. If Chapman we not in the bullpen and had mediocre pitchers in his place imagine where the Reds would be at this point in the season. Certainly more than 1.5 games back.


Obviously it, most likely, would have been best to use and keep Chapman in the rotation from the day he inked his contract. That has not happened, but just because somebody is in the bullpen does not mean they're relegated to that role for their career. This season, Lance Lynn and Jeff Smardjzia have both made the jump quite successfully. Samardzjzia ran through our lineup a week ago. David Price was used in the pen, as was Matt Moore, albeit for shorter stints than Chapman has. CJ Wilson was a reliever for about 4 years and he now has 75 million reasons not to complain about it. Dennis Eckersley also comes to mind. Putting somebody in the bullpen does not mean they cannot be starters and successful ones at that. What cannot happen is for Chapman to be shuttled back and forth between roles during the season-- i.e. Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain.

Price, Moore, and Lynn were developed to be starters for years in the minors. Their bullpen stint was short and they were inserted into the starting rotation the next year. CJ Wilson failed as a starter in the minors and they converted him to reliever where he did better. So he was stuck being a reliever due to that fact. Eckersley spent 11 years as a starter. Jeff Samardzija has 86 minor league starts under his belt, was sent to the bullpen since he wasn't that great, and now forced into the rotation (he is 8 starts in, let's hold off on calling him a success just yet). All of them have one thing in common, they were given time to develop as a starter. Only Wilson and Samardzija stayed in the bullpen past a part of a season, and that is mainly due to the fact they were not very successful as starters in the minors. Plus, they were told they were going to be starters prior to the start of the season. How many suddenly transform into a starter? You can't expect Chapman to suddenly do that this year, and it's pretty clear having him as a 5th starter (assuming he could succeed there) would be way more valuable. Yet the Reds don't know how he will fair, so more than likely he is stuck in the pen for the whole year.

The Reds needed to let Chapman develop as a starter and determine what he is. Instead they rush him into a reliever role and he is getting stuck there. The bigger question isn't how many guys went from bullpen to starter. It's how many guys were given zero chance to develop as a starter, rushed into a bullpen role without knowing if they could start, and then kept there out of need in the bullpen at the start of a season. That list is very, very small. Anyone with talent like Chapman is developed as a starter and only ends up in the bullpen for any extended amount of time due to being poor at starting.

I don't care about the few games Chapman may have saved this year. I care more about the fact the Reds are 2-5 in games Leake starts. If the Reds had continued developing Chapman as a starter they may have been able to turn that around in a second. That is worth way more than a guy that gets in an inning every other game, and clearly has issues with throwing on back to back days. The Reds are now pretty much stuck with Leake as a starter, and unless he turns it around that will hurt a lot more than Chapman helps in the bullpen.

I am not worried about Chapman possibly being a starter in future years. That is not out the window. Yet for this year it certainly looks that way, and the way Leake is going the Reds are not going to win anything throwing him out every 5 days. As mentioned, you can get a 3 ERA bullpen guy for a sack of used jockstraps at some point this season, which will be a difference of a couple of games vs. what Chapman gives you (unless he somehow stays at a zero ERA all year). Yet good luck finding any decent starting pitching that won't cost an arm and leg.

 

[scott91575]

I do not want to see Chapman closing. I think he could be good at it, but it's such a waste. The clock is ticking for his time in a Reds uniform. Unless the Reds blow up his arm (distinct possibility of course), there's no way he's not with another team for his second contract. The Reds need to get as many TOR starts and innings out of him as they can. Unfortunately, they seem content to piss away that time and money by keeping him in the pen. I fear that once he's made the nominal closer, there's no turning back and he'll be in the pen for good as a Red.

and this year is pretty much toast. See the examples above. All the guys that went successfully from bullpen to starter had years to develop and/or started the year as a starter. You don't suddenly go from bullpen mid season to effective starter, especially a kid that has so little time spent being developed as a professional starter. So he will spend the whole year in the pen, and might get a chance to start in spring training. Just a huge mistake all around in my mind. He should have been starting since the beginning of this season (be it AAA or with the Reds) and developing that skill. In the long run that would have been the best course of action. Now he is getting stuck in the pen where even the best reliever of all time is not even valued as much as borderline all star starters.

 

[Bestbuck36]

My opinion on the Chapman matter is that if you starter goes 7 or 8 innings, your bullpen doesnt matter as much. Pretty simple. So the fail begins with the guys getting the ball every 5th day. If Chap can learn to go 7 he's done his job and go from there. Its not as if every other team in the majors, for the most part, doesnt have the same issues maybe besides having a legitimate, lock down 9th inning guy. Both sides are right in this discussion here, imo. Had to start him earlier this year to avoid making a mistake with him. They made their beds, now lie in it and let him close where he might just be a badass.


The mentality of the team starts at the top and they'll play that way until its changed. Period.

 

[Bucknut24]

John Fay ‏@johnfayman
Chapman will close. But not today. He's gone 3 of 4. Will go with matchups today. Ondrusek vs. RHs, Marshall vs. LHs. #reds

 

[Dryden]

Game note from the box score yesterday:

The series finale Sunday features an excellent pitching matchup. Reds RHP Johnny Cueto (4-1, 1.89 ERA) faces Yankees ace CC Sabathia (5-1, 3.77). Cueto's 2.20 ERA over the past two seasons is the best in the majors.

Just wanted to point out that I used to read RedsZone/ORG a lot, but there are far too many Bill James wannabes over there anymore arguing inane shit like "Is Cueto an ace?" and trying to prove he is not by citing BABIP and xFIP that I seriously have to consider if any of those guys actually know how to enjoy watching baseball. I swear ... they just suck all the fun out of watching the game.

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

... they just suck all the fun out of watching the game.

Naaah....I'm pretty sure that's the manager and players in the Reds jerseys....and the guys in the radio and tv booths.

 

[jlb1705]

I seriously have to consider if any of those guys actually know how to enjoy watching baseball.

They are Reds fans so... no.

 

[jlb1705]

I like when this thread is active. For me it's the best Reds discussion going.

My access to the ORG is read-only because I have too much pride to "audition" for an internet message board like they ask. I still read it because they are pretty good at collecting news, but by the time any given thread reaches its second page it devolves into verbose sophistry so excruciatingly boring and detailed that it makes an argument between Gatorubet and jwinslow seem like fun, light reading.

I tried the Sun Deck, but it looks like it's full of subhumans that are too stupid to figure out how to comment on Enquirer articles or troll on Twitter instead.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I like when this thread is active. For me it's the best Reds discussion going.

My access to the ORG is read-only because I have too much pride to "audition" for an internet message board like they ask. I still read it because they are pretty good at collecting news, but by the time any given thread reaches its second page it devolves into verbose sophistry so excruciatingly boring and detailed that it makes an argument between Gatorubet and jwinslow seem like fun, light reading.

I tried the Sun Deck, but it looks like it's full of subhumans that are too stupid to figure out how to comment on Enquirer articles or troll on Twitter instead.

That's pretty much how I feel about RZ. Read only.

Sundeck is the banana phone crowd after they found the internet and ORG is a bunch of egg heads who just want to bitch about people bitching about a shitty team and/or engage in a general nerd dick measuring contest.

This thread is a good mix of people who know baseball but understand the fan in all of us makes us say some outlandish shit in the heat of our frustrations. Over there if you say "Stubbs sucks" you better be ready for a 10 page treatise on why he's actually quite good and you are the dumbest, knee jerk, over emotional sub human to ever live.

 

[Bucknut24]

yea, I dunno why I bother to post at the sundeck


actually, I do know why, because if I didn't, I'd be posting about 40 times during every game and I already post enough in this thread as it is

I have roughly 150 more posts than Jax (2nd most posts in this thread)

 

[jlb1705]

or engage in a general nerd dick measuring contest.

At least they're good with decimals and fractions.

 

[Jaxbuck]

yea, I dunno why I bother to post at the sundeck


actually, I do know why, because if I didn't, I'd be posting about 40 times during every game and I already post enough in this thread as it is

I have roughly 150 more posts than Jax (2nd most posts in this thread)

screw it, if people actually like this thread to be active lets make it a game thread and have fun with it.

I always assumed people got sick of hearing me bitch and tried to keep it as minimal as my frustrations would allow.

Now I'll just open the firehose full blast

 

[Jaxbuck]

At least they're good with decimals and fractions.

Yes,size will be accurately measured, that is for sure.

 

[DaBears]

As a baseball and non-Reds fan I enjoy this thread because all of you get fed up with the same [Mark May] that I do as a Cubs fan including Dusty Baker's legendary incompetence.