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Reds Tidbits (2007 Season)

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Bucky Katt;807315; said:
McCoy missed the boat there. Manson had a group of devoted followers. I'm certain he can't say the same for Milty.
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Surprisingly, Milton does actually have one supporter, and somehow possibly two, as I may have convinced myself to let him stay at the #5 over the course of writing this post.

Don't shoot the messenger, but I'm going to play devils advocate re: Milton for a moment.

All of the ill-feelings towards him should probably be directed at O'Brien (and Bowden, and even Marge for putting the franchise in this position). Look, everybody knows Milton is not a 10M/yr., #2 starter. He's not even #3, but when the staff ace is Paul Wilson, you go with what ya got. There may be an argument for why Reds fans need to give Milton an honest shot as the #5 guy, though.

RMR over at Redszone offered a reasonable suggestion (and I've double checked some numbers, see below) for keeping Milton around: If the Reds could actually milk 25 starts and 150 innings out of Milton, and Milton doesn't really go too far north of his 5.00 career ERA average (or even his 5.5'ish career NL ERA average), that would make Milton one of the best #5 starters in the majors. Nearly every single MLB team has to cobble together aging veterans, callups and long relievers to create a #5 starter by committee, and the result is that the league wide ERA for a #5 starter is around 7.00.

Milton is more than effective (1) on the road, away from GABP, and (2) when Nerron isn't consistently an inning too late with the hook.

Of course, Milt's knees, back, and elbow make his serviceability the wild card, but the point is the grass isn't always greener on the other side, and the MLB trend suggests that releasing Milton in and of itself doesn't guarantee a better alternative (Joe Mays? Dave Williams? Anyone? Anyone?).

In the scheme of #5s, you run Milton out there and bleed every last penny out of his 10-million dollar elbow until he's got nothing left to give.

Here's Milton's 2006:
Eric Milton 26G 26GS 152.2IP 163H 94R 88ER 29HR 42BB 90K 8-8 5.19

FWIW, here's Santos's 2006 line, as he appears to be the fans' consensus for a shot at the #5:
Victor Santos 25G 19GS 115.1IP 150H 80R 73ER 16HR 42BB 81K 5-9 5.70

Here are the 2006 lines for a few of the different guys I could remember from last season that were tried at the #5:
Dave Williams 8G 8GS 40.0IP 54H 34R 32ER 9HR 16BB 16K 2-3 7.20
Joe Mays 7G 4GS 27.0IP 40H 23R 22ER 4HR 12BB 16K 0-1 7.33
Justin Germano 2G 1GS 6.2IP 8H 4R 4ER 1HR 3BB 8K 0-1 5.40
Chris Michalak 8G 6GS 35.0IP 42H 21R 19ER 6HR 16BB 10K 2-4 4.89

... and here's the rest of the back of the rotation committee from 2006:
Brandon Claussen 14G 14GS 77.0IP 93H 56R 53ER 14HR 28BB 57K 3-8 6.20
Elizardo Ramirez 21G 19GS 104.0IP 123H 70R 62ER 14HR 29BB 69K 4-9 5.37

Milton was OK yesterday. He was absolutely not helped by his defense (Dunn especially) and he was misused by Nerron. He should have gotten a no decision with the score 3-3. Milton may not be as bad an alternative as we all think -- his worst outings are almost always at GABP (he was 5-3 on the road last season, including two solid outings at Wrigley opposite Zambrano in the 1st half).

Again, I'm not even sure I've convinced myself of any of this yet ... just throwing it out there! :tongue2:
 
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Dryden;807469; said:
Again, I'm not even sure I've convinced myself of any of this yet ... just throwing it out there! :tongue2:
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While I think you present a very reasonable arguement, I still think we have better options. I had considered some of these facts as I was scouting through teams 5th starters for my fantasy research. I also saw on TV yesterday where they estimated 50% of MLB teams will have released their 5th starter and another 7 or 8 will have been demoted to the minors by season's end.

While Milty may not be any worse than most other teams 5th, it has been stated by team officials that he is not cut out for 5th starter duty. Narron and Kriv have both said he is not built for long reliever duty when his turn is not pending. This means he needs to be our 4th or not on our roster.

I'd also argue that while he isn't any worse than other team's fifth, we still have better options. Santos is the general choice, and I remember seeing him pitch for the Crew in 05 as a starter. He has the ability, and (I couldn't find it anywhere, so this is speculation) I think he is coming off some arm issues from last year with Pitt. This said, my choice would be Livingston as we could use a lefty in the rotation to mix things up.

You do make some solid arguements and props for taking the devil's advocate stand!
 
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Dryden;807469; said:
Surprisingly, Milton does actually have one supporter, and somehow possibly two, as I may have convinced myself to let him stay at the #5 over the course of writing this post.

Don't shoot the messenger, but I'm going to play devils advocate re: Milton for a moment.

All of the ill-feelings towards him should probably be directed at O'Brien (and Bowden, and even Marge for putting the franchise in this position). Look, everybody knows Milton is not a 10M/yr., #2 starter. He's not even #3, but when the staff ace is Paul Wilson, you go with what ya got. There may be an argument for why Reds fans need to give Milton an honest shot as the #5 guy, though.

RMR over at Redszone offered a reasonable suggestion (and I've double checked some numbers, see below) for keeping Milton around: If the Reds could actually milk 25 starts and 150 innings out of Milton, and Milton doesn't really go too far north of his 5.00 career ERA average (or even his 5.5'ish career NL ERA average), that would make Milton one of the best #5 starters in the majors. Nearly every single MLB team has to cobble together aging veterans, callups and long relievers to create a #5 starter by committee, and the result is that the league wide ERA for a #5 starter is around 7.00.

Milton is more than effective (1) on the road, away from GABP, and (2) when Nerron isn't consistently an inning too late with the hook.

Of course, Milt's knees, back, and elbow make his serviceability the wild card, but the point is the grass isn't always greener on the other side, and the MLB trend suggests that releasing Milton in and of itself doesn't guarantee a better alternative (Joe Mays? Dave Williams? Anyone? Anyone?).

In the scheme of #5s, you run Milton out there and bleed every last penny out of his 10-million dollar elbow until he's got nothing left to give.

Here's Milton's 2006:
Eric Milton 26G 26GS 152.2IP 163H 94R 88ER 29HR 42BB 90K 8-8 5.19

FWIW, here's Santos's 2006 line, as he appears to be the fans' consensus for a shot at the #5:
Victor Santos 25G 19GS 115.1IP 150H 80R 73ER 16HR 42BB 81K 5-9 5.70

Here are the 2006 lines for a few of the different guys I could remember from last season that were tried at the #5:
Dave Williams 8G 8GS 40.0IP 54H 34R 32ER 9HR 16BB 16K 2-3 7.20
Joe Mays 7G 4GS 27.0IP 40H 23R 22ER 4HR 12BB 16K 0-1 7.33
Justin Germano 2G 1GS 6.2IP 8H 4R 4ER 1HR 3BB 8K 0-1 5.40
Chris Michalak 8G 6GS 35.0IP 42H 21R 19ER 6HR 16BB 10K 2-4 4.89

... and here's the rest of the back of the rotation committee from 2006:
Brandon Claussen 14G 14GS 77.0IP 93H 56R 53ER 14HR 28BB 57K 3-8 6.20
Elizardo Ramirez 21G 19GS 104.0IP 123H 70R 62ER 14HR 29BB 69K 4-9 5.37

Milton was OK yesterday. He was absolutely not helped by his defense (Dunn especially) and he was misused by Nerron. He should have gotten a no decision with the score 3-3. Milton may not be as bad an alternative as we all think -- his worst outings are almost always at GABP (he was 5-3 on the road last season, including two solid outings at Wrigley opposite Zambrano in the 1st half).

Again, I'm not even sure I've convinced myself of any of this yet ... just throwing it out there! :tongue2:
Click to expand...

Yes, but if he told you to brutally murder Roman Polaski's wife, would you? I still contend Manson is more popular. :lol:
 
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Jaxbuck;795925; said:
The reds have to pay him the 9M no matter what, but if they are serious in what B-cast says about wanting to win they have to DL or cut this guy. He is simply done. Belisle, Sarloos, Livingston, me, you and my 90 year old grandmother can all do as good a job or better at the backend of the rotation.
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My thoughts exactly. People were calling into 700 after the game and saying it was a solid outing for a 5th pitcher. Since when is 10 hits and 4 runs in 5 and 2/3 a good outing for anyone? I don't care where you are in the rotation, thats terrible.
 
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My .02:

-yes those numbers for Milton projected out for a season aren't bad for a #5 compared to league average.

-I also agree that those projected numbers are equal to whatever we may have in house at the moment meaning there is not a clear cut better producing option in house right now.

-My caveat is that thats about the best you are going to get from Milton and he was lucky to keep the damage to only 4 runs. Keep giving up 10 H and 1 BB per 5 2/3 for the year and that ERA is going to be sky high. Also we all know his condition is degenerative, it gets worse as the year goes on.

I still say you can't get the money back from running him out there, it's gone, its a sunk cost...DFA him now. He can only get worse and we can't afford to be giving games away.
 
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The most frustrating part of Milton's starts, from what I've seen, are the damn bloop hits in shallow center. Eliminate those and you cut his hits surrendered in half and the HRs don't score 2 or 3 a pop either.

Milton's not going to induce a GIDP, or any GB for that matter, so what the hell good is a SS, and a weak hitting defensive specialist at that? Bench Alex Gonzalez and go Dunn L, Hamilton LC, Freel shallow RC, and Griffey R. :tongue2:
 
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Tipdogusaf;807988; said:
:yow1::yow1:.... Did Griffey just hustle. You know what is really funny, after he slid into home my wife goes "oh now he is going to be hurt and be done for the season" lol. god love her.
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I thought the same thing -- He's out of hamstrings! :biggrin:
 
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Tipdogusaf;807988; said:
:yow1::yow1:.... Did Griffey just hustle. You know what is really funny, after he slid into home my wife goes "oh now he is going to be hurt and be done for the season" lol. god love her.
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That was my first reaction when I saw him slide into home plate...

Either way we just seem to continue to flirt with blowing this game wide open...This guy is throwing some many balls if we could throw some extra base hits in there and get rid of the stupid chasing of balls and either striking out of hitting a stupid pitch to make an out we could blow it open...

Broson is throwing well so far...
 
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