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Real Cash baseball (Thread of Degenerates)

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Jaxbuck

Jaxbuck

I hate tsun
‘18 Fantasy Baseball Champ
Site Supporter: VIP
I know there has been some interest around RC threads in the past so I thought I'd put this here.

I have had a developer working on an algorithm for baseball for a couple of seasons and feel like its refined enough to track this year.

The specific plan I adhere to is looking for value instead of trying to predict winners. I look for favorites (usually 50-55% by my math) that are actually priced as underdogs.

I have the spreadsheet that I am tracking it on for anyone who wants to see it but here are the results so far:

April: 23-4
May to date: 6-17
Overall win%: 58%

The thing to remember is that every one of these bets is at plus money.

It looks like my 'puter was much better than the books in April and they have adjusted but I am just going to keep following the playbook and see what happens through the year (my propeller head adjust's the algorithm so that is beyond the scope of what I want to get into here).

I thought I'd start listing the plays everyday if anyone wants to follow along*.

*Bet small. My standard bet has been 1% of my total stake except for 2 times. many times they have been 1/2% bets.
*I will post them as best I can, sometimes life gets in the way.


Today 5/14
(I have these teams as at least 50% favorites)
Seattle +130

Maybe (Don't have lineups to plug in yet)
LAA +105

There aren't many plays every day. It's a few here and there. Some days there are none.

Let me know what you guys think or if it's worth me listing this here.
 
Lineups are set now, the Houston/NYY second game is a coin toss and you can get Houston at +114

That is a play.

EDIT

Houston Win at +114
 
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OHSportsFan said:
Add a recommendation for 5dimes. The amount of props/options they throw at all sports is amazing. I have friends that go for the basic Bovada thing, but I've always been on 5dimes.
Click to expand...
Also, the parlay options :bow:

I realize it's basically throwing away money, but it's pretty fun to throw $5 down on all 16 opening day March Madness games and have a chance at like $20K :lol:. Think I hit 13/16 (buying some points here and there). It's basically limitless on that site.

Also, live-betting if that's your thing.

OK, now I sound like the degenerate I am, but I generally do pretty pretty well (March Madness was a big success). Back to focusing on @Jaxbuck and his elitist-prick-next-level-forcing-an-employee-to-build-a-model gambling. :cheers:
 
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OHSportsFan said:
OK, now I sound like the degenerate I am, but I generally do pretty pretty well (March Madness was a big success). Back to focusing on @Jaxbuck and his elitist-prick-next-level-forcing-an-employee-to-build-a-model gambling. :cheers:
Click to expand...

He's a good ship so I don't bust his balls too much. Besides, I give him a cut.

That kid has really blossomed.
 
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Lineups are in for the first games

Mets +111, I have them at about 52-53% favorite

EDIT

sorry +111, not +114

anything plus money is a good bet

EDIT II

Loss -1
 
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Sorry, haven't posted any in a couple of days

picking were slim, I think we missed one winner in Milwaukee yesterday.

Anyway, look at Colorado and KC today if you can get them at plus money. They both look like slight favorites with assumed lineups. Wait for finalized lineups to be sure.
 
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