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Ranking the top 5 Conferences

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Updated Monday, November 14.

Not surprisingly, Ohio State added another Top-10 offense to its resume this weekend and moved UP two spots in the national rankings for total defense.

Big-10/SEC/ACC elite defenses and who they've played.

Total defense from the NCAA D1A rankings summary:<pre>Conf Rank Name Games Plays Yds Avg TDs Ydspgm Wins Losses<br>ACC 1 Miami (Fla.) 9 606 2087 3.44 11 231.89 8 1<br>ACC 2 Virginia Tech 9 540 2154 3.99 11 239.33 8 1<br>SEC 3 Alabama 10 597 2475 4.15 10 247.50 9 1<br>Big-10 5 Ohio St. 10 646 2773 4.29 16 277.30 8 2<br>SEC 8 Florida 10 603 2854 4.73 26 285.40 7 3<br>Big-10 11 Penn St. 10 730 2971 4.07 18 297.10 9 1</pre>Total Defense vs. Opponents' Total Offense Rank (Per Game Breakdown):<pre>ACC #1 Miami (Fla.) #2 Virginia Tech<br> (# 39) L Florida St. (# 85) W North Carolina St.<br> (# 50) W Clemson (#115) W Duke<br> (# 56) W Colorado (# 93) W Ohio<br> (# 66) W South Fla. (# 75) W Georgia Tech<br> (#115) W Duke (# 65) W West Virginia<br> (#117) W Temple (# 80) W Marshall<br> (# 96) W North Carolina (# 42) W Maryland<br> (# 62) W Virginia Tech (# 55) W Boston College<br> (# 73) W Wake Forest (# 52) L Miami (Fla.)<br><br>SEC #3 Alabama #8 Florida<br> (#107) W Middle Tenn. St. (# 72) W Wyoming<br> (# 81) W Southern Miss. (# 58) W Louisiana Tech<br> (#105) W South Carolina (#100) W Tennessee<br> (# 61) W Arkansas (# 99) W Kentucky<br> (# 60) W Florida (# 63) L Alabama<br> (#104) W Mississippi (#112) W Mississippi St.<br> (#100) W Tennessee (# 51) L LSU<br> (#101) W Utah St. (# 36) W Georgia<br> (#112) W Mississippi St. (# 44) W Vanderbilt<br> (# 51) L LSU (#105) W South Carolina<br><br>Big-10 #5 Ohio St. #11 Penn St.<br> (# 17) W Miami (Ohio) (# 66) W South Fla.<br> (# 2) L Texas (# 82) W Cincinnati<br> (# 74) W San Diego St. (# 32) W Central Mich.<br> (# 33) W Iowa (# 9) W Northwestern<br> (# 24) L Penn St. (# 6) W Minnesota<br> (# 5) W Michigan St. (# 37) W Ohio St.<br> (# 76) W Indiana (# 49) L Michigan<br> (# 6) W Minnesota (# 79) W Illinois<br> (# 79) W Illinois (# 30) W Purdue<br> (# 9) W Northwestern (# 57) W Wisconsin</pre>Total Defense vs. Opponents' Total Offense Rank (Summary):<pre>#1 Miami (Fla.) opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 75, Median 66<br>#2 Virginia Tech opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 74, Median 75<br>#3 Alabama opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 88, Median 101<br>#5 Ohio St. opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 33, Median 21<br>#8 Florida opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 74, Median 68<br>#11 Penn St. opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 45, Median 43</pre># of Top Offenses Faced:<pre> TEAM TOP-10 TOP-25 TOP-50 BEST WORST<br>#1 Miami (Fla.) 0 0 2 39 117<br>#2 Virginia Tech 0 0 1 42 115<br>#3 Alabama 0 0 0 51 112<br>#5 Ohio St. 4 6 7 2 79<br>#8 Florida 0 0 2 36 112<br>#11 Penn St. 2 2 6 6 82</pre>
 
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Here's an update, now that all meaningful non-conference games have been played. I've added the Big East. Louisville now counts as a top-25 team outside the 5 power conferences, and Fresno State doesn't. Wins against Illinois and Syracuse no longer count as top-100 wins:

Ranking the top 6 Conferences



<HR style="COLOR: #888888" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->The hard part of ranking the conferences is determining an objective way to evaluate them. Here is the approach I took.

First, ignore all in-conference play. All conferences end up with a .500 record, by definition.

Second, ignore all wins over non-Division 1-A teams, and teams not ranked in the top 100 (of the CBS-119 poll). No credit is given for beating cupcakes here, but a hammer comes out if there's a loss to one.

Third, evaluate the 'good wins'; those that came against the teams in the other top-5 conferences, or against opponents that are still ranked.

Fourth, evaluate the 'bad losses', those that came to unranked teams that aren't in the top-5 conferences (this excludes losses to ND, West Va., TCU, and Louisville, but not Fresno St. any longer).

I bolded good road wins, and 1 atrocious loss.

Conf.....non-conf record
...............vs. top-100..................good wins.................bad losses

Big 10........21-6................Wiscy-at-NC, Ind/Ky.................none
.......................................MSU-at-ND, Purd-at-Ariz

ACC...........16-9...............Clem/aTm, GTech-at-Aub,......Duke-Navy
...................................Miami/Colo, VaTech-at-W.Va.....Duke-at-E.Car.
....................................Clem-at-S.Car

SEC............15-9............Vandy-at-Wake, LSU-at-AzSt.....Vandy-MTSU, MsSt-Hous
.................................Georgia-at-GaTech, Fla/FlaSt........Miss-Wyo

Pac-10.......12-8.............USC/Ark, USC-at-ND,..............Az-at-Utah
.................................UCLA/Okla, AzSt/NW'ern..............Wash-A.F.
...............................................................................Stan-Cal-Davis

Big-12........15-5...............Neb/Wake, Ia St/Iowa............Mo-N. Mex.
...........................................Texas-at-tOSU

Big East.......9-13...........W. Va-at-MD, Louisv-at-KY.........Rutg-at-Ill,Pitt-at-Ohio
..................................Louisv/Oreg St,Louisv/N.Car.........Cincy-at-Miami-Oh

The Big 10 clearly rates as the top conference, and I would rate the ACC second, with the other 3 conferences all very close. Recent wins by Georgia and Florida moved the SEC up. Obviously the Big East is last.
 
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There are many threads out there that discuss relative conference strength, and though this one hasn't been updated in over a year; I still think it's the best.

Those of you who have been around all year know that I have my own way of evaluating teams statistically. I call it Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA). DSA compares how well you do against your opponents compared to how well they do against everyone else. If you're new here, do a quick search on DSA and you'll find a couple of dozen explanations of it.

Unlike the typical stats, DSA numbers take the strength of your opponent into consideration. When we go further and consider the strength of THEIR opponents, which is who DSA compares you to, we obtain what I believe to be a fair assessment of relative team strength.

In order to compare conferences, I will focus on two numbers derived from DSA: Differential Scoring Composite (DSC) and Differential Yardage Composite (DYC). For those unfamiliar with these terms, their definitions can be found by a simple search on this site.

With traditional stats, Offense and Defense are compared separately. So if a conference has bad offensive stats and good defensive stats; you have to look at Out Of Conference (OOC) Play to determine if they have bad offenses or good defenses. The problem with this is that BCS conferences typically play very poor OOC schedules, so one cannot know the answer to the questions begged by traditional stats until after Bowl Season.

The power of using DSA, especially DSC and DYC, to compare conferences is that intra-conference play is negated. The numbers simply tell you how well you performed against your opponent compared to how well everyone else did against them.

But comparing yourself to the rest of the teams your opponents played is still a problem for DSA unless you factor in your opponents' schedule strength. I have done this by calculating the average of the DSC's and DYC's of every Div IA teams Opponents' Opponents.

By then multiplying the average DSC/DYC of each conference by the average of that conferences NON-CONFERENCE opponents' Schedule Strength expressed in terms of DSC/DYC, I have obtained a Corrected DSC/DYC number that is IMHO a uniquely unbiased and complete method of comparing teams statistically.


Methodology:
  1. DSC and DYC were obtained for every Div IA team
    • All game against IAA opponents were discarded
  2. The average DSC and DYC of each team's opponents, as well as their opponents' opponents (who DSA compares you to) was calculated.
  3. The average of all of these numbers for each conference was calculated.
  4. DSC/DYC and Opponents' Opponents DSC/DYC for each conference are multiplied to obtain Corrected DSC/DYC for each conference.
  5. Conferences are then ranked based on Corrected DSC and Corrected DYC.
  6. The four Div IA independents were treated as a conference of their own.
CORRECTED DSC

Rank___Conference_________DSC______Opp. SS DSC___Corr. DSC
1______ Big 10___________ 1.531______ 1.0891______ 1.6676
2______ SEC______________ 1.516______ 1.0897______ 1.6516
3______ Big East_________ 1.429______ 1.1411______ 1.6303
4______ ACC______________ 1.317______ 1.0959______ 1.4430
5______ PAC 10___________ 1.226______ 1.1500______ 1.4097
6______ Big 12___________ 1.353______ 1.0384______ 1.4046
7______ Mountain West____ 1.112______ 1.0998______ 1.2230
8______ Conference USA___ 0.873______ 1.1423______ 0.9975
9______ Independent______ 0.838______ 1.1614______ 0.9728
10_____ MAC______________ 0.769______ 1.2480______ 0.9602
11_____ WAC______________ 0.726______ 1.1874______ 0.8624
12_____ Sun Belt_________ 0.525______ 1.1741______ 0.6168

​
Where:
  • DSC = Differential Scoring Composite
  • OPP. SS DSC = Opponents' Schedule Strength DSC
    • AKA Opponents' Opponents average DSC
    • (non-conference opponents only)
  • Corr. DSC = Corrected DSC (product of first two columns)
CORRECTED DYC
Rank___Conference_________DYC______Opp. SS DYC___Corr. DYC
1______ Big 10___________ 1.180______ 0.9993______ 1.1793
2______ SEC______________ 1.171______ 1.0003______ 1.1716
3______ Big East_________ 1.119______ 1.0177______ 1.1390
4______ Big 12___________ 1.146______ 0.9930______ 1.1376
5______ PAC 10___________ 1.068______ 1.0416______ 1.1121
6______ Mountain West____ 1.029______ 1.0289______ 1.0592
7______ ACC______________ 1.037______ 1.0003______ 1.0370
8______ Conference USA___ 0.937______ 1.0256______ 0.9609
9______ MAC______________ 0.887______ 1.0667______ 0.9461
10_____ Independent______ 0.842______ 1.0198______ 0.8590
11_____ Sun Belt_________ 0.780______ 1.0399______ 0.8111
12_____ WAC______________ 0.733______ 1.0495______ 0.7690

​

Where:
  • DYC = Differential Yardage Composite
  • OPP. SS DSC = Opponents' Schedule Strength DYC
    • AKA Opponents' Opponents average DYC
    • (non-conference opponents only)
  • Corr. DYC = Corrected DYC (product of first two columns)

Look at the rankings in the first table. That table compares how dominant each conference was in terms of points (scoring offense and scoring defense). Enormous effort was expended in correcting for strength of schedule to two levels of abstraction beyond the point where most analysts stop trying.

Now don't the rankings in that table mesh fairly well with your impression of each conference's strength? I'm sure many of our guests who are SEC fans would expect the Big 10 to rank just above the Sun Belt. But for the rest of us; seeing the two conferences that are represented in the Championship Game ranked as the top two conferences, and with a very narrow range between them, is exactly what we would expect.

Incidentally, the Excel Workbook that calculated these numbers (and many others), comprises 128 Worksheets and 28.1 MB of data.
 
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Pretty interesting stats, and also fun to read through last year's comentary.
Subjectively, I would've had the P10 as a distant 3rd (possibly 4th right behind the BE). It's also nice to see the MWC fairing well.
 
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The reason the SEC is often assumed to be the best conference is because of the players and the coaches. Ridiculous as it sounds, but it's impossible to actually tell from on the field performances because top teams rarely have OOC games vs. other top teams and match-ups in bowl games aren't always fair.

Case in point, in the Pac-10, only USC and Cal played tough OOC games(only counting top teams, so ASU vs. LSU doesn't count), in the Big-10, only OSU and Michigan played tough OOC teams, in the SEC, only Tennessee played a tough OOC team.

Second point, bowl match-ups depend on bowl tie-ins, and the SEC has MUCH tougher tie-ins than let's say, the ACC. The first few match-ups are fair, as the Sugar is SEC #1 vs. BCS, Citrus is SEC #2 vs. B10 #2, and Outback is SEC #3 vs. B10 #3. But as you start going down the list, you can see that the SEC is consistently mismatched, starting with Cotton, the SEC #4 vs. B12 #2, Peach with the SEC #5 vs. ACC #3, and so on and so on. This year it's the same thing, UGA(4-4), a so-so SEC team, is matched up with VT(6-2), one of the hottest teams in the ACC. Kentucky(4-4), a mediocre SEC team who's only bowl eligible because they managed to avoid every SEC west powers(Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama) except LSU(49-0 loss btw), is matched up against Clemson(5-3), another higher rated ACC team. South Carolina(3-5), is matched up against CUSA #1 Houston, and Alabama(2-6), is matched up against another team with better conference record in OKST(3-5). Not to mention Auburn in the Cotton is another SEC #4 vs. B12 #2 game.

Thus, the result is that people base their perceptions on the quality of the players and the quality of the coaches. The fact is that the SEC is almost always the conference with the most draftees by the NFL, with the Big 10 pretty much tied(due to having 1 less team). Also, with HCs like Fulmer, Spurrier, Richt, Meyer, and Tubberville, it's hard to doubt the coaching as well. With great players and great coaches, it's reasonable to conclude that it makes great teams and therefore a great conference.
 
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dingyibvs;682015; said:
The reason the SEC is often assumed to be the best conference is because of the players and the coaches. Ridiculous as it sounds, but it's impossible to actually tell from on the field performances because top teams rarely have OOC games vs. other top teams and match-ups in bowl games aren't always fair.

Case in point, in the Pac-10, only USC and Cal played tough OOC games(only counting top teams, so ASU vs. LSU doesn't count), in the Big-10, only OSU and Michigan played tough OOC teams, in the SEC, only Tennessee played a tough OOC team.
Click to expand...

I would add Arkansas hosting USC in the opener. And South Carolina played Clemson, who's a solid team.
 
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Ah, yes, Arkansas too, forgot about them. I just never thought of them as a SEC power. As for TT and MR, I don't think they're "great" coaches, but they're good enough at schools with rich traditions to not get fired(TT definitely had a close call a couple years ago tho). Not many HCs have the job security that they do. In the Pac-10, I can only see Carrol and Tedford, in the Big-10 it's Tressel and I guess probably Carr and Ferentz(Wisconsin's coach might be up there some day as well), but neither Iowa nor Wisconsin produce the kind of talent Auburn and Georgia do. The Big 12 has Stoops and Brown, the ACC has Beamer(Bowden's too senile). The Big East has some good coaches, but I think we can all agree that their programs have a long way to go yet. Seems like now Rich Rodriguez is about to go to Bama as well, so the list just grows for the SEC. Coaches like Spurrier, Fulmer, Richt, Meyer, and Tubberville pretty much have their jobs on lock-down, which conference can claim 5 coaches at contending schools that would only leave for the NFL?
 
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BB73;306210; said:
The Big 10 clearly rates as the top conference, and the SEC rates 5th, with all of their bad losses coming at home. The SEC's best win is LSU @ Ariz. St., who is now 3-4. The SEC does still have some games left to make a statement: Ga-at-GTech, Fla-at-FSU, Tenn-at-ND, S.Car-at-Clem.
Click to expand...

Nice analysis. I guess it just seems to me that in the SEC, the talent is more wide than it is deep, and so you have decent teams even though some may not be top-ranked. And that means, IMHO, that an SEC championship (and to a lesser extent, conference play) has to count for something. There were fewer dominoes in front of Michigan and Ohio State on their way to a championship than there were Florida and Arkansas. That aside, you make a compelling case, made all the more attractive by its simplicity. (You need to trademark it.)
 
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On the face of it, it looks like a down year in the SEC, overall.
Great defenses or bad offenses?
I think the offenses have been just average, making the defenses look better.
But, we will see after the Bowls.
 
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dingyibvs;682269; said:
in the Big-10 it's Tressel and I guess probably Carr and Ferentz(Wisconsin's coach might be up there some day as well), but neither Iowa nor Wisconsin produce the kind of talent Auburn and Georgia do.
Click to expand...

I would probably add Joe Paterno to that list of great B10 coaches - he may be a bit old, and had suffered a few down years with some people calling for his head, but the last 2 years have been his best coaching since joining the B10 IMO.
 
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JoJaBuckeye;682443; said:
Nice analysis. I guess it just seems to me that in the SEC, the talent is more wide than it is deep, and so you have decent teams even though some may not be top-ranked. And that means, IMHO, that an SEC championship (and to a lesser extent, conference play) has to count for something. There were fewer dominoes in front of Michigan and Ohio State on their way to a championship than there were Florida and Arkansas. That aside, you make a compelling case, made all the more attractive by its simplicity. (You need to trademark it.)
Click to expand...

Just to be clear, that was based on analysis of the 2005 season. I haven't gotten around to it for 2006 yet.
 
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briegg;682468; said:
I would probably add Joe Paterno to that list of great B10 coaches - he may be a bit old, and had suffered a few down years with some people calling for his head, but the last 2 years have been his best coaching since joining the B10 IMO.
Click to expand...

I kind of think Paterno is a Bowden type coach, one who's only getting by based on talent. I think PSU has the most talent out of all B10 schools outside of OSU and Michigan, but other than the past 2 years, they haven't really played like it. I have to admit tho, PSU did a lot better than I expected this year. They were competitive in every game except the ND game(I watched their game vs. OSU, it was pretty close for quite a while), so if he has another solid year, I think I'll change my mind.
 
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