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Ranking the top 5 Conferences

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/stewart_mandel/10/26/mailbag/index.html

Blind loyalty
SEC fans need to accept that the conference is down

Admittedly, college football wouldn't be what it is without the blind loyalty of fans to their chosen teams and conferences. But man, some of you SEC fans may want to think about visiting the eye doctor.

Stewart: Why the constant bashing on the SEC this year? You stated a few weeks back that the SEC was overrated and this week you mention an "ugly" 6-3 SEC game that happened to be played by two teams with excellent defenses. With three teams in the top 10 and six in the top 25, is there any doubt right now that the SEC is the best conference in college football?
-- Jason, Baton Rouge, La.​

Umm ... yes?

Did you happen to see the scores in the SEC matchups this weekend? The closest margin of victory was seven points. Yet you and all the other sportswriters on this site jump on the Big Ten bandwagon! You guys condemn a very good team like Tennessee because they happen to have three loses to two teams in the top five and another team in the top 20. If Tennessee was to play Michigan's schedule, the Vols would be undefeated! Also, do you think if Texas was in the SEC they could beat LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida or Auburn 52-17?
-- Donnie Jones, Knoxville, Tenn.​

And how do you propose Tennessee would go undefeated exactly? By out-punting Penn State and Wisconsin? And no, the Longhorns would not beat those teams 52-17. It'd be more like 21-3.

Look, I'm not trying to be mean. The fact is, the SEC is the strongest conference in the country most seasons. This isn't one of them. It's always tough to look yourself in the mirror, so if you won't listen to me, SEC fans, perhaps you should hear what they're saying in other parts of the country:

Is it just me, or are the top teams in the SEC playing incredibly sloppy football? Outside of LSU's win over 3-4 Arizona State, what have any of the top six teams done to suggest they are playing any better than Colorado or Minnesota?
-- Ben, Tucson, Ariz.​

Why won't someone come out and say how pathetic the SEC's offenses are? Alabama over Tennessee, 6-3? LSU-Auburn 17-17 in regulation? Please. These teams would have no chance with a top team from any other top conference. Even if their defense holds for 10 points, their offense won't score more than 6!
-- Shiva B., San Diego, Calif.​

It's not that I don't appreciate good defenses, of which the conference has a whole bunch. But I do tend to favor teams that are at least functional on the other side of the ball. Alabama was the closest thing the conference had to a "complete" team this year, but without Tyrone Prothro, the Tide's offense is borderline impotent. Georgia's is in danger of going in the same direction without quarterback D.J. Shockley. LSU's offense is inconsistent; Auburn's is young; Florida's is a mess and Tennessee's was a joke even before losing Gerald Riggs Jr. And, in a true sign of the state of the conference this season, as opposed to previous years, the other six teams aren't even worth mentioning. As a more lucid SEC alum in my office said this week, you can sum up the conference this season with a word: "unwatchable."

Now, compare that to the ACC, which not only has three teams that could play with anyone in the SEC (Virginia Tech, Florida State and Miami) but also no less than six other teams (Boston College, Clemson, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and North Carolina) capable of beating those squads on any given week. In the Pac-10, the current seventh-place team, Arizona State, came within a stone's throw of beating top-10 foes USC and LSU, and the eighth-place team, Washington State, was a combined seven points from beating 7-0 UCLA and 6-2 Cal.

In my current conference pecking order, the SEC falls behind those two leagues, but ahead of the defensively-challenged Big Ten and one-horse Big 12. Then again, how would I know? Perhaps if the Tide or Bulldogs had beaten an Ohio State or Notre Dame in their non-conference slate rather than Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, Utah State, Boise State or Louisiana-Monroe, I'd have a better measuring stick. In the absence of that, perhaps the best point of comparison you can make is this: USC gained more yards against Arkansas in a two-minute span (261) than Georgia did against the Razorbacks over the course of an entire game (217).
 
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To keep it short and simple, I was only going to do the top 2 or 3 in the Big-10 vs. the SEC, but as I got into the defensive stats I decided to include the top 2 in the ACC since they also happen to be #1 and #2 overall, directly ahead of Ohio State.

The rankings work the same as the rushing defense rankings I sorted last week. The top teams' total defenses are compared against the rankings of the total offenses for their opponents.

The Top 5 teams were used, two ACC teams (Miami and Va. Tech), two SEC teams (Alabama and Florida), and one Big-10 team (Ohio State). The next Big-10 team (Penn State) was all the way down at #16 in the national rankings, but they're included to list the Top 2 defenses in the 3 conferences included.
<pre>Total Defense Comparisons [Top-2 of ACC, Big-10, and SEC] from the NCAA D1A rankings summary:<br><br>Conf Rank Name Games Plays Yds Avg TDs Ydspgm Wins Losses<br>ACC 1 Miami (Fla.) 6 402 1363 3.39 6 227.17 5 1<br>ACC 2 Virginia Tech 7 421 1667 3.96 7 238.14 7 0<br>Big-10 3 Ohio St. 7 442 1784 4.04 11 254.86 5 2<br>SEC 4 Alabama 7 408 1788 4.38 8 255.43 7 0<br>SEC 5 Florida 7 419 1903 4.54 15 271.86 5 2<br>Big-10 16 Penn St. 8 598 2392 4.00 14 299.00 7 1<br><br>Total Defense vs. Opponent's Total Offense Rank (Per Game Breakdown):<br><br>#1 Miami (Fla.)<br>(# 21) L Florida St.<br>(# 43) W Clemson<br>(# 54) W Colorado<br>(# 77) W South Fla.<br>(#116) W Duke<br>(#115) W Temple<br><br>#2 Virginia Tech<br>(# 85) W North Carolina St. <br>(#116) W Duke<br>(#101) W Ohio<br>(# 69) W Georgia Tech<br>(# 70) W West Virginia<br>(# 84) W Marshall <br>(# 44) W Maryland<br><br>#3 Ohio St.<br>(# 23) W Miami (Ohio)<br>(# 11) L Texas<br>(# 73) W San Diego t.<br>(# 38) W Iowa<br>(# 35) L Penn St.<br>(# 3) W Michigan St.<br>(# 61) W Indiana<br><br>#4 Alabama<br>(#112) W Middle Tenn. St.<br>(# 80) W Southern Miss.<br>(# 89) W South Carolina<br>(# 47) W Arkansas<br>(# 53) W Florida<br>(# 98) W Mississippi<br>(# 94) W Tennessee<br><br>#5 Florida<br>(# 66) W Wyoming<br>(# 79) W Louisiana Tech<br>(# 94) W Tennessee<br>(#107) W Kentucky<br>(# 59) L Alabama<br>(#108) W Mississippi St.<br>(# 57) L LSU<br><br>#16 Penn St.<br>(# 77) W South Fla. <br>(# 76) W Cincinnati <br>(# 56) W Central ich.<br>(# 4) W Northwestern<br>(# 10) W Minnesota <br>(# 58) W Ohio St. <br>(# 48) L Michigan <br>(# 71) W Illinois</pre>
What all the numbers mean ...
<pre>Total Defense vs. Opponents' Total Offense Rank (Summary):<br><br>#1 Miami (Fla.) opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 71, Median 66<br>#2 Virginia Tech opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 81, Median 84<br>#3 Ohio St. opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 34, Median 35<br>#4 Alabama opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 82, Median 89<br>#5 Florida opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 81, Median 79<br>#16 Penn St. opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 50, Median 57<br><br># of top offenses faced:<br><br> TEAM TOP-10 TOP-25 TOP-50 BEST WORST<br>#1 Miami (Fla.) 0 1 2 21 116<br>#2 Virginia Tech 0 0 1 44 116<br>#3 Ohio St. 1 3 5 3 73<br>#4 Alabama 0 0 1 47 112<br>#5 Florida 0 0 0 57 108<br>#16 Penn St. 2 2 3 4 77</pre>Ohio State, on its own, has faced better offenses than Miami Fla., Va. Tech, Alabama, and Florida combined.
 
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Total Defense vs. Opponents' Total Offense Rank (Summary):

#1 Miami (Fla.) opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 71, Median 66
#2 Virginia Tech opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 81, Median 84
#3 Ohio St. opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 34, Median 35
#4 Alabama opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 82, Median 89
#5 Florida opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 81, Median 79
#16 Penn St. opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 50, Median 57

In the name of all that is holy, someone give this guy a GP award!!

:bow: :bow: :bow: :bow: :bow:
 
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Excerpted from the Georgia vs Florida preview on CFN:

Georgia has the SEC's number two offense and scoring offense, but that's a little like being excited about being the second best hockey player in Egypt

Point being, putting up defensive numbers in a conference with no offense is not much of an accomplishment.
 
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I was thinking about this, I know that by those ratings in the first post that you have the SEC ranked 5th, but they are kind of top heavy. Florida, Bama, LSU, Tenn, UGA the rest not so much.

Here is a way I wanted to look at how the BCS National Title game has been playing out and a look back at the last 20 or so years. I don't exactally have numbers and exact wins, just going off my own knowledge.:biggrin:

I was thinking about all this b/c I believe that cfb needs some sort of playoff wheter it be a +1 or an 8 team.

I will start off by saying that the Big Ten and SEC are the top conferences top to bottom. Some conferences might have a couple better teams at the top but those two teams are year in and year out at the top. That is why I think if a team from those conferences goes undefeated they should have a chance at the NC.

Last year Auburn went undefeated through the SEC and got no shot at the NC. Why b/c the Little 12 is overrated. Oklahoma had one tough game and they have had Texas number recently. They were so overrated that they were even favored to beat USC in the NC game we see how that turned out.

This year if Va Tech goes undefeated they will be left out and they will have played, a very tough schedule.(why shouldnt they get a chance)

If you take a look at the teams that were good in the 80's and 90's(winning NC) you look at teams like Miami, FSU, PSU. Why were these teams good, b/c of their conferences Miami and FSU breezed their shitty conferences year in and year out and playing their way to NC games. While the other conferences beat up on each other and lost one game to a team that would beat every team on Miami's or FSU's scedhule. Smae with PSU they would beat up on the weaker teams. We see what happened to them when they actually started to play a real conference.

I think they should take the winner of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, SEC, and then 3 at large teams and play them in a playoff, that would take care of all this bullshit controversy we have everyyear.
 
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I think they should take the winner of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, SEC, and then 3 at large teams and play them in a playoff, that would take care of all this bullshit controversy we have everyyear.

As long as the Big LEast doesnt get a look in (absent a strong OOC schedule and 9+ wins), and they handle the Irish question correctly (your 3 at large bids) then this actually may be the simplest solution of any offered.

And a simple solution is often the best.
 
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The jump to a stronger conference didn't seem to affect Virginia Tech negatively.

Well I wouldnt really call the ACC a strong conference last year. The only game that really proposed a threat to them in the ACC was Miami and they had them at home.

I am not saying a good team can not switch to a better conference and win it I am saying they will not consistently win it year in and year out like Miami and FSU used to do in the Big Least and ACC.
 
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After analyzing the Big 10s OOC performance in another thread, I became curious to see how the SEC and ACC compare. Below are the results. If someone cares to do the analysis for the Pac-10 or the Big-12, help yourself; I'm exhausted.

First we'll look at raw numbers, then we'll break it down.

Note 1: This analysis is for OOC games only
Note 2: The column headed "Rank" notes where the conference average would fall in the Div IA rankings at this point in the season.


OFFENSE

Conference______YPG___Rank___YPP___Rank____PPG___Rank
BIG 10_________448.3___18____6.06____27____36.18___13_
SEC___________404.5___40____6.16____21____30.72___34_
ACC___________405.7___39____5.67____41____30.69___34_


DEFENSE

Conference______YPG___Rank___YPP___Rank____PPG___Rank
BIG 10_________351.2___47____5.14____54____20.06___30_
SEC___________313.3___22____4.79____32____17.59___14_
ACC___________284.3____8____4.44____15____16.31___13_


At first glance it looks like the Big 10 has the best offense and the worst defense and the ACC has the best defense right?

OK

But let's take a look at who these numbers were posted against.


SCHEDULE STRENGTH

BB73, in his awesome post to start the thread, used the CBS rankings of all DIV 1A teams. For my purposes, I will use the collegefootballnews.com rankings of DIV 1A.

Average CFN ranking of DIV 1A opponents:

Big 10:__66.71
SEC:____70.96
ACC:____69.66


But this does not include DIV 1AA teams. Since there is no easy way of comparing these teams to DIV 1A, I'll just count the number of games each league played vs. AA opponents and list the AA teams' collective won-lost records.

# of 1AA teams played and their W-L record

Big 10:__2 teams__10-6
SEC:____7 teams__30-33
ACC:____3 teams__10-18



Breakdown

SEC

It cannot be stressed enough. When you're Div-1A opponents are ranked lower than everyone else's and on top of that you play 1AA teams in nearly 1 in 4 of your OOC games, you are playing a total crapfest of a schedule league-wide. The SEC has no excuse. They used to claim that their in conference schedule was so tough that they didn't dare schedule tough OOC games. Neither BB73's analysis nor mine bare out that the SEC in conference schedule is tougher than anyone else's. They can start playing with the big boys or they can shut the hell up.


ACC

Gotta give'em their props. Those defensive numbers are good, even against a schedule easier than what the Big 10 has played. Posting worse offensive numbers against an easier schedule leaves a little to be desired however.



Big 10

This analysis illustrates that the Big 10 plays the best offense of the three leagues; and they did it against tougher competition. The defensive numbers are less impressive, but are held down by having to play better offenses than other leagues are playing.


All this was fun, but the Bowl Games will tell the real story. I can't wait.
 
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This is a revision to the figures I posted two weeks ago comparing the top defenses of the ACC, SEC, and Big-10. Since DBB resurrected this thread I went back and cross-checked my original ratings from two weeks ago against the ratings today, and not surprisingly there have been a number of changes.

The most notable is that Florida has fallen from 5th to 10th in the national defense ratings, now behind Georgia, Auburn, and Alabama in the SEC. At the time, the best offense the Gators had faced was the 57th ranked LSU tigers. Since then, the Gator D has been exposed having been torched by such offensive juggernauts as Georgia (#40) and Vanderbilt (#53).

Alabama passed Ohio State to claim the number three spot after suffocating performances against the explosive offenses of Utah St. (#106) and Mississippi St. (#112).

The control group for this comparison, the ACC, still places Miami (Fla.) and Virginia Tech one-two.

In the Big-10, Ohio State took a hit at the hands of the Gophers (#6) but regained ground with a bye week against Illinois (#72). To be fair, the Illini aren't the worst the Buckeye D has taken the field against; that title belongs to San Diego St. (#73). The second rated defense in the Big-10, Penn State, moved up two spots in the national ratings after games against Purdue (#27) and Wisconsin (#49).

The complete numbers for the top two in the ACC, SEC, and Big-10:
<pre>Total Defense Comparisons [Top-2 of ACC, Big-10, and SEC] from the NCAA D1A rankings summary:<br><br>Conf Rank Name Games Plays Yds Avg TDs Ydspgm Wins Losses<br>ACC 1 Miami (Fla.) 8 527 1718 3.26 9 214.75 7 1<br>ACC 2 Virginia Tech 9 540 2154 3.99 11 239.33 8 1<br>SEC 3 Alabama 9 534 2200 4.12 8 244.44 9 0<br>Big-10 7 Ohio St. 9 577 2522 4.37 15 280.22 7 2<br>SEC 8 Georgia 8 502 2311 4.60 14 288.88 7 1<br>Big-10 14 Penn St. 10 730 2971 4.07 18 297.10 9 1<br></pre><pre>Total Defense vs. Opponent's Total Offense Rank (Per Game Breakdown):<br><br>ACC #1 Miami (Fla.) #2 Virginia Tech<br> (# 32) L Florida St. (# 80) W North Carolina St.<br> (# 46) W Clemson (#115) W Duke<br> (# 57) W Colorado (# 90) W Ohio<br> (# 74) W South Fla. (# 71) W Georgia Tech<br> (#115) W Duke (# 69) W West Virginia<br> (#117) W Temple (# 86) W Marshall<br> (#102) W North Carolina (# 56) W Maryland<br> (# 62) W Virginia Tech (# 50) W Boston College<br> (# 65) L Miami (Fla.)<br><br>SEC #3 Alabama #8 Georgia<br> (#111) W Middle Tenn. St. (# 20) W Boise St.<br> (# 85) W Southern Miss. (#100) W South Carolina<br> (#100) W South Carolina (# 77) W La.-Monroe<br> (# 55) W Arkansas (#112) W Mississippi St.<br> (# 61) W Florida (# 98) W Tennessee<br> (#104) W Mississippi (# 53) W Vanderbilt<br> (# 98) W Tennessee (# 55) W Arkansas<br> (#106) W Utah St. (# 61) L Florida<br> (#112) W Mississippi St.<br><br>Big-10 #7 Ohio St. #14 Penn St.<br> (# 17) W Miami (Ohio) (# 74) W South Fla. <br> (# 4) L Texas (# 78) W Cincinnati<br> (# 73) W San Diego St. (# 44) W Central Mich.<br> (# 33) W Iowa (# 7) W Northwestern<br> (# 24) L Penn St. (# 6) W Minnesota<br> (# 5) W Michigan St. (# 41) W Ohio St.<br> (# 63) W Indiana (# 47) L Michigan<br> (# 6) W Minnesota (# 72) W Illinois<br> (# 72) W Illinois (# 27) W Purdue<br> (# 49) W Wisconsin<br></pre>
What all the numbers mean ...
<pre>Total Defense vs. Opponents' Total Offense Rank (Summary):<br><br>#1 Miami (Fla.) opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 76, Median 68<br>#2 Virginia Tech opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 76, Median 71<br>#3 Alabama opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 92, Median 100<br>#7 Ohio St. opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 33, Median 24<br>#8 Georgia opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 72, Median 69<br>#14 Penn St. opponents' offensive rank = Avg. 45, Median 46<br></pre><pre># of top offenses faced:<br><br> TEAM TOP-10 TOP-25 TOP-50 BEST WORST<br>#1 Miami (Fla.) 0 1 2 32 117<br>#2 Virginia Tech 0 0 1 50 115<br>#3 Alabama 0 0 0 55 112<br>#7 Ohio St. 3 5 6 4 73<br>#8 Georgia 0 1 0 20 112<br>#14 Penn St. 2 2 6 6 78<br></pre>
Ohio State has played the nations #4, #5, and #6 ranked offenses, with #7 Northwestern coming into the 'Shoe Saturday. Miami, OH will likely reach the Top-10 by the conclusion of the regular season too.

Alabama should be ashamed of themselves. Their schedule is actually more embarrassing than Auburn's was last year.
 
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