I don't see how anyone thinks Alabama will be ranked #1. I don't think they'll be top 5.
Starting defense according to
rivals:
DE - Lorenzo Washington - Senior
DE - Brandon Deaderick - Senior
NT - Terrance Cody - Senior
LB - Corey Reamer - Senior
LB - Eryk Andrews - Senior
LB - Rolando McLain - Junior - Bama folks think he's as good as gone
LB - Nico Johnson - Freshman
CB - Javier Arenas - Senior (Backup is also a Sr.)
CB - Kareem Jackson - Junior - Bama folks think he might leave too (Backup is a Sr.)
S - Mark Barron - Sophomore (Backup is a Sr.)
S - Justin Woodall - Senior
They definitely lose 7 starters and 3 of their top 4 corner backs. One more starter has his foot out the door, and the other will probably leave too. That leaves them returning starters only at LB and S, one each. They lose their top 4 cornerbacks and 2 of their top 4 safeties.
I understand the Ohio State team of 2006 faced a similar situation and came in ranked #1. But that team was expected to be an offensive juggernaut, and they lived up to their billing for most of the season.
I'm not sure you can say the same for Alabama. Yes they can return as many as 8 offensive starters, but with OSU returning 15-16, Iowa returning 16 starters, Oregon possibly returning
19 starters, always dangerous USC possibly returning 14 starters, this is going to be a very strong year, Miami returning as many as 15 starters. Hell, Florida can return as many as 14 starters (with Hernandez and Haden gone), and if Brantley lives up to billing they're dangerous. Georgia Tech will return 17 starters even if Dwyer and Morgan leave. Don't forget Oklahoma, who can return 17 starters.
It's too early for a top 10 with people still declaring for the draft, but here's my top 5.
#1) OSU
#2) Oregon
#3) Miami
#4) Iowa
#5) Georgia Tech