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Penn State at tOSU, Sat. 10/21, 12pm EST, FOX

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BuckyKatt said:
Here you go...
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My frustration with analytics is how teams don't seem to factor in their specific team enough. I agree that in general teams should go for it on 4th and goal from the 2. I'm sure the stats will show that over a year period or a 5 year period or whatever. But this Ohio St is not good at that. I know Day wants it to be but it's not. Reminds me hitters in baseball who hit 6 homers but also strike out 110 times.
 
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Tanner said:
My frustration with analytics is how teams don't seem to factor in their specific team enough. I agree that in general teams should go for it on 4th and goal from the 2. I'm sure the stats will show that over a year period or a 5 year period or whatever. But this Ohio St is not good at that. I know Day wants it to be but it's not. Reminds me hitters in baseball who hit 6 homers but also strike out 110 times.
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Baseball has a big enough data set to give us the concept of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) which is essentially telling you how much more (or less) a player is worth as compared to the theoretical replacement level player.

Point here being that if you have a stats, let's call it Wins Above Replacement in short yardage, and that number is a negative for you...then you kick it because (for whatever reason) you are below average in succeeding in that 3 yards or less type scenario.

I would hope to Woody they have that kind of sense of themselves from analytics inside the program.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Baseball has a big enough data set to give us the concept of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) which is essentially telling you how much more (or less) a player is worth as compared to the theoretical replacement level player.

Point here being that if you have a stats, let's call it Wins Above Replacement in short yardage, and that number is a negative for you...then you kick it because (for whatever reason) you are below average in succeeding in that 3 yards or less type scenario.

I would hope to Woody they have that kind of sense of themselves from analytics inside the program.
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Honestly, I liked the decision to go for it on 4th/goal, our defense was playing lockdown and getting hands on the ball. That offense at their own 2 was a recipe for disaster. What I didn't like was another goddamned screen to a wideout.
 
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RhodeIslandBuck said:
Honestly, I liked the decision to go for it on 4th/goal, our defense was playing lockdown and getting hands on the ball. That offense at their own 2 was a recipe for disaster. What I didn't like was another goddamned screen to a wideout.
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The decision may be good in a vacuum but it get's less attractive when you know you are substandard in those 3 yard or less scenarios.

Also, to me, it's about staying consistent with your philosophy coming in. We all have said to ourselves a million times in our fandom "we aren't going to beat this offense by kicking FG's instead of scoring TD's". Well if you are going to be consistent in your approach then, the opposite must be true. When you are in a bad offense game, points are at a premium. You take them when they are there.
 
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NJ-Buckeye said:
Can you imagine inside Day's head..
For years he could only count on his ultra high-powered offense to outscore opponents
and yesterday had to accept the new reality... his defense was absolutely the kryptonite to PSU

New level of pressure... the offense that he is the general... is his weakest link
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Tanner said:
I'd be curious to see how many games our return guys have outgained the opponent's return guys. Feel like it never happens. Yesterday Penn State outgained us 74-30
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Imagine finding yourself stuck in a Tresselball season AND having weak special teams to go with all the other stuff you aren't used to.

On the good side of it, this is the kind of uncomfortable environment that forces growth in people. I see a lot more of Day getting after people on the sideline this year and take it as a good sign. I'm not sure he was always doing that.
 
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Anyone know how often 3rd/4th and 2 or 3rd/4th and goal gets practiced each week? It would seem that if you could consistently punch it in against this defense in practice you'd have the right to think it would work in game situations.

Which brings me to question how many times does that fucking bubble screen/WR sweep work in practice against this defense. That sucker must score on every play in practice to justify Day's faith in it.
 
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BuckyKatt said:
If I'm not mistaken, didn't they offer a Christmas ornament with the date and score of that game...?

"Talk about act like you've been there before."
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But they haven't. They're 5 and 18 this century. That's why I'm glad the Big Ten brought them in. Otherwise they'd still be playing U Mass, Temple, Pitt, BC, Syracuse, U Conn, and claiming to be #1.
 
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LordJeffBuck said:
Post Game Notes

1. It was a grim, gritty, hard-fought 20-12 victory that came down to the wire (Penn State failing to recover an onside kick with 28 seconds left on the clock). It probably should've been a much more relaxing 30-6 semi-blowout, but I will take any win against the previously undefeated #7 team in the country, especially when that team is Penn State. Ohio State has on several occasions snatched defeat from the jaws of victory when Penn State was the opponent:

• 1997: The Buckeyes led the contest 27-17 with 1:48 left in the third quarter; Penn State's Curtis Enis rushed for 114 yards in the 4th quarter and Ohio State lost 31-27.

• 2001: Derek Ross had a 45-yard pick six with 12:16 left in the third quarter to put the Buckeyes ahead, 27-9; Penn State would then score 20 unanswered points to win the game, 29-27.

• 2008: Ohio State led 6-3 with just under eleven minutes left in the game when Terrelle Pryor fumbled a quarterback sneak near midfield (despite conventional wisdom, QB sneaks aren't alway successful); Penn State went on to win by the score of 13-6.

• 2016: Ohio State led 21-7 with 14:52 left in the game but thanks to a blocked punt and a blocked field goal, Penn State scored 17 unanswered points to win, 24-21.

• 2014: Even though this game ended up being a win in double overtime, the Buckeyes had a comfortable 17-0 lead at halftime that they managed to piss away thanks in large part to an unlikely pick six by a Penn State defensive lineman.

I've seen enough weird things happen in Penn State games, weird things that almost always go against the Buckeyes, so I will savor this win and move on to next week.

2. Check out these numbers: 3, 7, 7, 10, 12, 14, 17. No, it's not a Fibonacci sequence but the points surrendered by the Buckeye defense in the first seven games this season. That's an average of 10.0 points per game, which isn't quite as good as the amazing 1973 defense that surrendered just 5.8 points per game (64 points in 11 games with four shutouts) but it's in the same ballpark, especially when you consider the evolution of offensive football over the past 50 years. The current Buckeye defense doesn't need to be historically good beat the upcoming chumps on their schedule (Wisconsin, Rutgers, Michigan State, Minnesota), but it had better be that good in the season finale and during a (long?) postseason run.

3. The Buckeye defense lived up to its billing and then some: they stuffed the Nittany Lions on 3rd and 4th downs (2 for 19, for a conversion rate of .105); held highly-touted QB Drew Allar to 18 for 42 (.429 completion percentage) for 191 yards (4.5 yards per attempt) with four sacks and one touchdown; and virtually eliminated the Lions' rushing attack (26 attempts, 49 yards, 1.9 average).

4. Penn State's offensive production was very bad, but it was even worse before Ohio State went into prevent mode with 2:41 left in the game. On Penn State's final drive, the Lions had 73 of their 240 total yards (30.4 percent), their lone conversions on 3rd and 4th downs, and their only touchdown.

5. The Buckeye offense was basically Marvin Harrison Jr, who had 11 receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown. Although Harrison probably won't win the Heisman Trophy or be the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, he is the best player in college football and a future Hall of Famer.

6. You can complain about the Buckeye offense all you want, but in my humble opinion the biggest negative from yesterday's game was Jayden Fielding missing a 45-yard field goal attempt. When your team relies on stifling defense and (dare I say it?) Tresselball offense, your kicker needs to be nearly automatic from inside 50 yards and give you a decent chance from 50+, and I'm not convinced that Fielding is there yet (his career long is just 41 yards).
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Ugh I was at the 01 game at PSU when they blew the 27-9 lead.
 
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