First, let me preface by saying that I know Thad Matta is not a realistic program standard. In fact, I have been one of those preaching that since he started his decline over his last couple of seasons. But, that doesn't mean we should accept 17-15 seasons as the new norm. With the portal, building competitive/championship teams is easier than ever before. You just have to be serious about NIL. Right now, I strongly suspect we are not serious about NIL.
Historically, tOSU is a .611 program. That equates to ~ 20-12 a season today. Most years, that should get you into the tournament coming out of the B1G. Thad Matta was at his best for 9 seasons (2006-2014) here and went 255-71 (.782) in that span with 8 NCAA berths, and 2 Final Fours. That's probably not a realistic standard over that long of a span unless you luck into another program shifting coach like Thad. Now, is that impossible? Certainly not. Not if you're serious about being a top program. I hope I'm wrong, but Diebler does not seem to have the juice needed to move this program beyond mediocrity. He feels like a lazy hire who got the job because he did "okay" for a few weeks and the AD didn't want to go out and pay for anybody else.
Thad's decline seemed to really start with the 2014-15 season. Since then, we've gone 224-144, which is just a hair below our historical norm at .609. But, we've made just 5 NCAA's in those 11 years and have never reached the Sweet-16. In 11 years, this team has missed the tournament 6 times and never got past the round of 32. That is unacceptable for a basketball program with tOSU's resources. Another wild stat, during Matta's peak, he lost 10 games or more just 3/9 seasons. tOSU has lost <10 just once in the 11 seasons since (25-9 in Holtmann's first year).
This is not a blue blood program, so expecting us to be elite regularly is probably unrealistic, but we sure as shit should be doing better than we have the last decade.
Until we start taking basketball seriously, I fear we're likely a bubble team at best. At worst, we could be facing a total collapse of the program and I don't think that's unlikely given how we've been recruiting and what our approach seems to be to the portal. Maybe a total collapse is what is needed to wake the AD up. Or maybe he just doesn't care.