Cincy
Is it relevant.com?
Online services that rank prospects pull in fans by the thousands, but coaches say the Web sites' numbers amount to little
BY DUSTIN DOW | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER
The college basketball season is ready to tip off, but lurking in cyberspace is an emerging breed of fan that is far more interested in what's happening off the court.
Those fans - "fanatics" might be more appropriate - are tuned in to the online recruiting scene.
They know the early signing period began Wednesday, and they already have surfed to the ends of the Internet for every last ranking associated with their favorite team's 2007 recruiting class.
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This is all very big business for online services such as Rivals.com and Scout.com, the leaders in the burgeoning industry of ranking the top college basketball prospects. For a player to be ranked in the Rivals150, the Web site's top 150 seniors nationally, is to be considered a can't-miss recruit to the legions of fans who are Rivals.com subscribers.
Rivals.com, which was founded in 1996, and its network of more than 150 individual team sites realized a best-ever 2.56 million visitors in September and could gain even more prominence this week as fans compare the rankings of their team's recruits with those of their, well, rival.
Ironically, as more fans flock to Web sites such as Rivals.com and the hundreds of copycat sites its success has spawned, coaches often see the sites as a glut of useless information.
"I think it's becoming increasingly more irrelevant ... because there's so many sites that rate (recruits)," said Xavier coach Sean Miller, who recalled that one, maybe two ranking services existed in 1986-87 when he was a high school senior.
"Now, with some of these ratings, I'm not so sure anyone's ever laid their eyes on the player," he said.
That's not to say coaches ignore the rankings.
They might not use them to determine whom they recruit, but coaches do everything in their power to inflate the rankings of their prospects.
The idea is for their recruiting class to appear as talented as possible on paper - or rather on computer screens - regardless of whether a player deserves to be ranked No. 10, No. 110 or not at all.
"If I have a player that's not ranked and he ends up signing with us, I'll call the recruiting gurus and say, 'Hey, let's get this guy up there,' " said University of Massachusetts coach Travis Ford. "You want that ranking to get up there to get your fans excited."
INSTANT EXPERTISE
Through these Web sites, any fan with an Internet connection and a credit card (Rivals.com subscribers pay $9.95 per month or $99.95 annually) can monitor his or her team's recruiting progress. And plenty of fans are doing so.
Rivals.com, for instance, boasts 150,000 active online subscribers and 1.7 million registered members (there is limited free access) on its network, which focuses on football and basketball recruiting.
So fans know when a coach secures a commitment from the No. 81 prospect - as Xavier recently did with Dante Jackson - or when he loses out on No. 53.
That cursory knowledge turns fans at their keyboards into second-guessing pseudo- analysts. A Xavier fan known as Sash19 at Xavier's Rivals.com site demonstrated the phenomenon last Sunday:
"No offense to Dante (who will be a great Muskie and is an even better person) but this year's recruiting has sucked. Not being able to close on players ... is very disappointing. If 2008 is not good, then I think there needs to be some kind of shake-up in how we go after a kid, who handles the recruiting and how we close the deal."
HOME-SITE ADVANTAGE
That's how Jerry Meyer expects fans to react. Meyer compiles the national basketball player rankings for Rivals.com, which has built a network of more than 150 college and state-specific sites to serve fans' recruiting interests.
Independent publishers - usually fans of the teams - operate the Rivals.com network sites, covering such matters as campus visits by recruits and whether a player's family likes the coaching staff. Much of the coverage is slanted toward the home team.
"I'm the guy who has to keep it real," Meyer said. "The Rivals Ohio State publisher is going to make the Ohio State recruits sound like the greatest players to ever play the game. That's his job. That's what the fans want to hear. You also notice that a player all of a sudden sounds a lot worse when he commits somewhere else. We've got to work with the publishers - they're driving our network - but we keep them an arm's length away at rankings time."
Only Meyer and two other national correspondents take part in the ranking process, which is all about potential.
The top 20 players are projected to become NBA draft picks. Players who fall from 21 to 50 in the Rivals.com rankings might show NBA potential but have limitations.
Beyond that, it's a best guess as to where a player deserves to be ranked. Many of the players in the bottom half of Rivals.com's top 150 are seen by Meyer about six to eight times total.
But at least he sees them.
COACHES LOOK ELSEWHERE
For analysis of potential recruits they haven't yet seen, most coaching staffs subscribe to private scouting services that give them starting-point information on players. Subscriptions to those services are not available to fans or media members.
Coaches might glance at some other sites that rank players, but usually only to get a quick look at the news.
"You take four or five minutes and you just click through them to see if anybody committed anywhere," said Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin. "You see if anything's going on out there. Some guy might have backed out of his commitment, and then we all call."
But for ardent fans, Meyer said, the rankings are critical. So Rivals.com tends to be diligent about its projections, although there still are some misses.
Kentucky finished with the No. 1 recruiting class in 2004, thanks in large part to Randolph Morris (No. 10) and Joe Crawford (No. 9). So far, neither has met his projection. Crawford is averaging 6.7 points per game over two seasons with UK; Morris is doing slightly better with a 10.5-point average, but the 6-foot-11 player is getting only 4.9 rebounds per game.
When Crawford considered transferring, it caused an uproar on UK's Rivals.com site from fans who expected big things from such a stout class. It was reminiscent of 1999-2000, when Miller was an assistant coach at North Carolina State and top-ranked recruit Damien Wilkins chose the Wolfpack but didn't stand out on the college court.
"It was almost the worst thing for all of us, including Damien," Miller said. "He shows up as a freshman and sometimes it's a hard transition. Why isn't this player dominating? Sometimes it's not that easy."
Many players are wary of the rankings.
Mike Williams, who was ranked No. 20 by Rivals.com in 2004, is transferring to UC from Texas and will be eligible to play for the Bearcats in 2007-08.
But don't expect Williams to spend much time studying how future teammates and opponents are ranked.
"I did a little bit, but then I stopped," Williams said when asked if he monitored the rankings in high school.
"You can't put too much in it because coming out of high school, you know that you've still got a lot to learn."