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Game Thread Oregon at tOSU, Sat. Nov. 7th, 3:30 pm ET, CBS

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I honestly think this game will be a 20+ point drubbing. Not sure who is on the wrong side of that, but something is going to give. Both teams are not having the season they wanted or expected, and have serious issues in critical areas that aren't likely to be fixed by Saturday.

Painfully rewatching the last game, if that same defense shows up, we'll be on the wrong side of this one and I don't care if the offense plays to its max potential. The offenses max potential without Sayin can't keep up with Oregon if the defense plays like last week. Pretty much that simple in my eyes. I have my doubts all the issues we have are fixable this season, but here's to hoping.

I won't probably be back Saturday before the game, so I'll make my pick now. Oregon 38 - OSU 20. I haven't picked against us in awhile, but just trying to be objective given what we saw last game and no Sayin. I hope that pick looks stupid come Saturday evening and everyone can let me have it. But I think one team falls apart near the beginning of the 3rd quarter, hopefully it's not us again this week.
 
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RB07OSU said:
I honestly think this game will be a 20+ point drubbing. Not sure who is on the wrong side of that, but something is going to give. Both teams are not having the season they wanted or expected, and have serious issues in critical areas that aren't likely to be fixed by Saturday.

Painfully rewatching the last game, if that same defense shows up, we'll be on the wrong side of this one and I don't care if the offense plays to its max potential. The offenses max potential without Sayin can't keep up with Oregon if the defense plays like last week. Pretty much that simple in my eyes. I have my doubts all the issues we have are fixable this season, but here's to hoping.

I won't probably be back Saturday before the game, so I'll make my pick now. Oregon 38 - OSU 20. I haven't picked against us in awhile, but just trying to be objective given what we saw last game and no Sayin. I hope that pick looks stupid come Saturday evening and everyone can let me have it. But I think one team falls apart near the beginning of the 3rd quarter, hopefully it's not us again this week.
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I can see OSU scoring 20 but no way Oregon comes close to 38 unless things somehow go even more sideways than in LA. USC actually has a good offense and even they were barely able to crack 30 at home with the OSU defense playing their worst game of the year. Oregon's offense has mostly been ass and they have to travel three time zones to the Shoe. I think the D is going to be much better personally. It's all going to depend on whether the offense can get its head out of its ass.
 
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LGHL score prediction: 27-24, Ohio State​



Football Power Index​

Ohio State​

  • FPI: 26.2 (Rank: 3)
  • Proj. W-L: 9.8-2.9
  • Win Out %: 35.9
  • Win Conf. %: 43.5
  • CFP %: 74.4
  • Make NC %: 21.4
  • Win NC %: 11.9

Oregon​

  • FPI: 17.4 (Rank: 12)
  • Proj. W-L: 7.6-4.4
  • Win Out %: 6.7
  • Win Conf. %: 2.6
  • CFP %: 4.8
  • Make NC %: 0.3
  • Win NC %: 0.1

FPI Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 83.2%​

SP+​

Ohio State​

  • Rank: No. 2 (down 1 from last week)
  • Rating: 26.3
  • Offense: 37.9 (8th)
  • Defense: 11.7 (3rd)
  • Special Teams: 0.2 (56th)

Oregon​

  • Rank: No. 12 (no change from last week)
  • Rating: 17.2
  • Offense: 33.9 (24th)
  • Defense: 17.0 (18th)
  • Special Teams: 0.3 (36th)

Matchup​

Projected Winner: Ohio Sate​

  • Projected Margin: 11.6 points
  • Win Probability: 77%
  • Projected Score(rounded): 31-19
    • *These projections are not QB adjusted*

Computer Models​

Sagarin Rankings
  • Ohio State: 92.01 (5th)
  • Oregon: 86.41 (12th)
The Power Rank
  • Ohio State: 23.93 (2nd)
  • Oregon: 17.67 (11th)
  • Matchup Prediction: Ohio State will beat Oregon by 9.1 at home (75% win chance)
Massey Ratings
  • Ohio State: 9.04 (4th)
    • Offense: 67.78 (4th)
    • Defense: 42.96 (1st)
  • Oregon: 8.49 (19th)
    • Offense: 65.35 (9th)
    • Defense: 38.38 (11th)
  • Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 28, Oregon 21 (67% win probability)
 
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Jaxbuck said:
and look at what happened to USC home and away, look at OSU out of their time zone etc etc

it's a thing
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Yep

Not the only factor
Not predictive enough to get me to abandon my principle of never betting
But it's not nothing

Back when I was running huge Excel workbooks that calculated DSA for every Div IA team every week, I was able to calculate that teams playing 3 time zones away from home were susceptible to a 2-touchdown underperformance, on average. What was weird was that the numbers stubbornly refused to produce a reliable way of decomposing those two touchdowns into how much underperformance was offense and how much was defense. It was as if the underperformance was a weird emergent property that was itself very reliable, but all of the data under the hood had huge standard deviations.

The only thing bigger was the underperformance of teams that played in Hawaii.
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
Yep

Not the only factor
Not predictive enough to get me to abandon my principle of never betting
But it's not nothing

Back when I was running huge Excel workbooks that calculated DSA for every Div IA team every week, I was able to calculate that teams playing 3 time zones away from home were susceptible to a 2-touchdown underperformance, on average. What was weird was that the numbers stubbornly refused to produce a reliable way of decomposing those two touchdowns into how much underperformance was offense and how much was defense. It was as if the underperformance was a weird emergent property that was itself very reliable, but all of the data under the hood had huge standard deviations.

The only thing bigger was the underperformance of teams that played in Hawaii.
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Not giving financial advice but just pointing out UCLA is playing at Minny this week

USC is playing at IU next week

Just sayin'
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Not giving financial advice but just pointing out UCLA is playing at Minny this week

USC is playing at IU next week

Just sayin'
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Yup. Even OSU last year looked pretty sluggish for a half against the Huskies. Didn’t matter though since, on a neutral field, the Buckeyes were probably 4 TDs better than them. Fully healthy and on a neutral field I’d say OSU is probably 2 TDs better than USC as well.
 
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System_id said:
Yup. Even OSU last year looked pretty sluggish for a half against the Huskies. Didn’t matter though since, on a neutral field, the Buckeyes were probably 4 TDs better than them. Fully healthy and on a neutral field I’d say OSU is probably 2 TDs better than USC as well.
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also, people may want to look at the first half spread if they want to get technical about it
 
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