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Game Thread Ohio State vs Wisconsin - 10/26/19, 12:00PM (FOX)

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brutus2002 said:
I'm gonna give you some reasons why these guys suck.

#1 Wisconsin had played 5 games straight at home. OSU has played 3 on the road.

#2 OSU has had a tougher schedule.

#3 Wisconsins opponents average Scoring offense was ranked 91st going into the Illinois game.

#4 Without 2 defensive scores NW beats Sconsin at home.

#5 Wisconsins punter is dead last in the conference at 34 YPP last time I checked. Their FG kicker is 5/9 on the season and anything past 35 yards is shaky at best.

#6 Illinois had a 73 yard TD called back. Illinois of all teams exposed their secondary.

#7 Ohio State has subbed in games much early and much more liberally than Sconsin during the season.

Wisconsin struggled in two games against subpar teams. I'd also argue that Meshitagain is playing much better now than when the played Sconsin. Also Cody White from MSU was wide open for 2-3 TD's and Lewerky missed him.

Wisconsins secondary and special teams are atrocious. Looking at numbers is great but the reality is stats can say whatever you want them to say.

Football is a game of matchups. Our WR's and QB matchup great with Sconsins defense. I think our secondary matches up great versus their passing game.

The home field advantage means something and the special teams will play a huge roll. We have blocked many kids and their kickers are shaky. Watch our guys go after their punter and FG kicker. Also if they have to punt deep in their territory we will make them pay.
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Did you watch the full video? They do discuss the computer model and some of the issues raised here. Their score predictions are 34-17 and 27-10 Buckeyes. Both I think are reasonable score predictions and both beat the spread.

What's your score prediction?

Mine is 38-13 (good guys of course).
 
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Bucky32 said:
I had to detox from college football a bit after Wisconsin decided it was high time to Leeroy Jenkins their season off the road and right into the ravine. Illinois was one of those games that was lost slowly, then all at once. I felt like the Badgers were pretty much in control until the Taylor fumble, when it obviously came unraveled. The more concerning revelation moving forward was that both lines got absolutely gashed.

As late as 10:59 a.m. last Saturday, I thought I had a pretty good read on this week's game. Now, not so much. The conventional wisdom would say that it's extremely difficult to bounce back from a loss like that and roll into a daunting road game against one of the most talented teams in the country. I'm going with the conventional wisdom here.

Offense:
Taylor is the centerpiece, but Jack Coan has played rather well this season while minimizing mistakes. He's obviously not going to match Fields throw-for-throw, but he can move through his reads quickly and drop passes in where he needs to. Some mobility. Getting Cephus back this year has been a boon, although I still feel like he's under-utilized in the offense. Ferguson is a nice big (albeit slow) target at TE. As others have noted, Chryst and Joe Rudolph like slants and run them often. The corner TE route has also worked well for them this year. Expect the "hippo" package and/or FB dives on short-yardage situations.

Chryst has basically alternated between heavy pistol and I-formation usage between every Big Ten game this year. He’s gotten a lot of heat for leaning on the former against Illinois. Taylor had to make 2 or 3 guys miss before even getting back to the LOS.

The Buckeyes will definitely be able to make hay against the offensive line. Jason Erdmann missed last week and I’m not sure what his status will be this week. Even with a fully healthy line, however, I suspect they will struggle.

Defense:
Again, I feel like I had a good pulse on the defense until last week. The Illini simply blew them off the line, and that put too much pressure on the second level to make a play. Spoiler alert: They didn’t.

It’s already been mentioned here, but Jim Leonhard doesn’t have a problem putting his DBs on an island in order to send more guys at the QB. I have to think he’ll revise that this week given the opponent. Definitely an area for OSU's offense to exploit. The linebacking corps has been a point of strength recently for Wisconsin and is again this year. Zack Baun and Chris Orr are the leaders here but there’s some depth.

Special Teams:
Meh. Collin Larsh is a coin flip when he lines up to kick. Zach Hintze will put it through the back of the endzone consistently on kickoffs. The return games are nothing to write home about.

Overall:
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Any potential formula for Wisconsin to win this game is the same as ever: shorten the game, make zero mistakes, and force some turnovers.

What is the spread up to now? OSU -14? That feels low to me based on what I've seen from Ohio State this year. I’ll say Buckeyes 38, Badgers 14.
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Bonus points for the Leeroy Jenkins reference. :rofl:
 
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brutus2002 said:
I'm gonna give you some reasons why these guys suck.

#1 Wisconsin had played 5 games straight at home. OSU has played 3 on the road.

#2 OSU has had a tougher schedule.

#3 Wisconsins opponents average Scoring offense was ranked 91st going into the Illinois game.

#4 Without 2 defensive scores NW beats Sconsin at home.

#5 Wisconsins punter is dead last in the conference at 34 YPP last time I checked. Their FG kicker is 5/9 on the season and anything past 35 yards is shaky at best.

#6 Illinois had a 73 yard TD called back. Illinois of all teams exposed their secondary.

#7 Ohio State has subbed in games much early and much more liberally than Sconsin during the season.

Wisconsin struggled in two games against subpar teams. I'd also argue that Meshitagain is playing much better now than when the played Sconsin. Also Cody White from MSU was wide open for 2-3 TD's and Lewerky missed him.

Wisconsins secondary and special teams are atrocious. Looking at numbers is great but the reality is stats can say whatever you want them to say.

Football is a game of matchups. Our WR's and QB matchup great with Sconsins defense. I think our secondary matches up great versus their passing game.

The home field advantage means something and the special teams will play a huge roll. We have blocked many kids and their kickers are shaky. Watch our guys go after their punter and FG kicker. Also if they have to punt deep in their territory we will make them pay.
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bukIpower said:
I agree those guys do suck lol...like you said Wisconsin is more of a product of who and where they've played their games.

Cephus is good but Okudah will limit his effectiveness and give me our DL against their OL. We should and will stack the box to take away Taylor, and when that happens they are dead in the water.

I have a feeling we win comfortably here and I think it's because the players will finally be amped up for a game.

Bucks-42
Bucky-14
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I disagree that they “suck.” I like the format of their show and their use of analytics. I like their conversational rapport too.

The issue is that they are overly reliant on previous seasons numbers absent 3/4 of the current season having been played so are prone to reach erroneous conclusions based on past results and/or small sample-sizes.

I think analysts/commentators can be wrong and miss critical elements of the game (such as matchups), and not suck. Sometimes they’re just wrong. That’s OK.

Related note: If you watch the video to the end, their model predicts a .1 point advantage for Wisconsin, then they acknowledge they don’t weight garbage time scores and both predict a 17 point Ohio St win.

Related related note: Wannstache tonight on the B1G Show pointed to the OL and Fields being able to handle Wisconsin’s 3-4 scheme and getting protections and identifying blitzes as his key. This is a defense Fields hasn’t seen since he left Georgia’s QB room.
 
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Zander42 said:
Did you watch the full video? They do discuss the computer model and some of the issues raised here. Their score predictions are 34-17 and 27-10 Buckeyes. Both I think are reasonable score predictions and both beat the spread.

What's your score prediction?

Mine is 38-13 (good guys of course).
Click to expand...

It's either going to be a brutal dogfight, or the Buckeyes roll them. I haven't decided which yet so I'll make my prediction later this week.
 
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Dryden said:
Related related note: Wannstache tonight on the B1G Show pointed to the OL and Fields being able to handle Wisconsin’s 3-4 scheme and getting protections and identifying blitzes as his key. This is a defense Fields hasn’t seen since he left Georgia’s QB room.
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Great point. Not sure if it's a reason to be concerned, but these kind of "new looks" have caused a lot issues in past games and Fields is still going to be adjusting to identifying blitzes and adjusting protection.

I'm sure it's not the same, but I remembered at least a few series in which MSU used more of a 3-4 look to disguise blitzes and make life hard on Fields. Hopefully that at least gave him a bit of useful experience for this Saturday.
 
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sparcboxbuck said:
I have a feeling that there’s no way he doesn’t try to play. He was clearly in pain after that one play against NU, but he’ll just get a new cast and be ready to go.
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If you watch him on the sideline at the end of the game, he was in a very good mood. I’m with you, don’t think there’s a chance in hell he sits this one out.
 
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Let’s check in on Bucky this morning:

Got home from work on Sat in sort of a zombie like stage after that shitfest. The upset was already splashed all over sports radio and ESPN. I'm in no fucking mood to make small talk with anyone at this point. Already had an idiot friend of mine who is Gopher fan, You know.......the one who shows up once every century like Beetles, texting and leaving me VM's laughing his ass off. I come into the house, and there's my cheery, smiling fiancee who wants to talk about stupid shit (her co worker, paint and flooring choices, a book she's reading ). I'm leaning on the counter just nibbling on some stale ass potato chips (not even realizing they were stale till several handfuls in) just nodding to her politely. I'm doing and saying everything to plan my escape......I just want to be fucking alone. Ended up slinking off to my lounge area downstairs citing tiredness, had a few drinks, and fell a sleep to the Penn St - Michigan game which I had no interest in at all. Just a gut punch of a day.
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Honor&Glory said:
saturday looking like all day heavy rain up there like it is here in Cincy?
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Ugh yeah checked and 70% chance for rain that day... that's not to our advantage at all because we want to force them to cover side line to side line. This helps Wisconsin no doubt if it really does end up being cold and rainy.

If that's the case I could care less about the score. Just win.
 
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