Game Thread Ohio State vs Cincinnati - 09/07/19, 12:00PM (ABC)

[sparcboxbuck]

None of that. It's made with millions of dollars of television rights money.

I love it when 'math' tells us that the SEC has 4 out of the 7-8 teams with more than 1% at being national champions before a snap of football is played. And then follows that up with 'math' that the SEC getting three of four playoff teams is the most likely scenario after an opening week where the conference looked mediocre at best.

If that little bitch pops his mouth off again I'm going to challenge him to post validations of his model based on bets he'd place in Vegas using the model. I'll ride him until he blocks me.

It's a shit model and frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see features in the model that 'leak' into SEC bias territory.

There's a guy, from Toledo strangely enough, who has a really good methodology for predicting game outcomes in lacrosse. It's probably the best sports model I've seen and if the FPI bitch talks any more shit imma point him to a decent model that he should try to emulate.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

• The DL might be the best combination of talent and depth we have ever seen at OSU. Yes I said ever.

Which is absolutely insane considering we lost the #2 overall pick and a 3rd round pick from last year (who might've gone late 1st - early 2nd with a better combine performance).

 

[Jaxbuck]

If that little bitch pops his mouth off again I'm going to challenge him to post validations of his model based on bets he'd place in Vegas using the model. I'll ride him until he blocks me.

It's a shit model and frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see features in the model that 'leak' into SEC bias territory.

There's a guy, from Toledo strangely enough, who has a really good methodology for predicting game outcomes in lacrosse. It's probably the best sports model I've seen and if the FPI bitch talks any more shit imma point him to a decent model that he should try to emulate.

Tell him what I seem to say 3 times a day to developers; there is a difference between working as designed and designed well.

 

[cincibuck]

One disappointing moment: 4th and short, the first package onto the field included Master Teague. They get pulled, shuffle, shuffle, sideline coaches in disarray. Second package and Fields is alone in the backfield, taking the snap in shot gun formation. Wham! play gets stuffed. Teague later got to show why he should have been in for that play by playing bowling ball with several Bearcat defenders. Inside the 20, short distance to go, run the T. Avoiding the T seems to be a left-over from the Urban days.

 

[Jaxbuck]

One disappointing moment: 4th and short, the first package onto the field included Master Teague. They get pulled, shuffle, shuffle, sideline coaches in disarray. Second package and Fields is alone in the backfield, taking the snap in shot gun formation. Wham! play gets stuffed. Teague later got to show why he should have been in for that play by playing bowling ball with several Bearcat defenders. Inside the 20, short distance to go, run the T. Avoiding the T seems to be a left-over from the Urban days.

That play was one missed block from the TE from working though.

Since we are on some of the negatives; one other thin I saw was Munford have a lot of trouble with the UC DE playing a wide 9 and speed rushing. He was able to handle that guy but a better DE would have beaten him soundly on a few plays.

Picking nits. There is always something to work on.

 

[bukIpower]

One disappointing moment: 4th and short, the first package onto the field included Master Teague. They get pulled, shuffle, shuffle, sideline coaches in disarray. Second package and Fields is alone in the backfield, taking the snap in shot gun formation. Wham! play gets stuffed. Teague later got to show why he should have been in for that play by playing bowling ball with several Bearcat defenders. Inside the 20, short distance to go, run the T. Avoiding the T seems to be a left-over from the Urban days.

Yeah that was a head scratcher... I never noticed they put in Master to start but I hope that's what we do next time.

If we go under center, 3 TEs, and Master that's a very physical short yardage situation. IMO it'd be nearly impossible to stop and would be killer on a 3rd and 1 situation where we go play action.

 

[bukIpower]

That play was one missed block from the TE from working though.

Since we are on some of the negatives; one other thin I saw was Munford have a lot of trouble with the UC DE playing a wide 9 and speed rushing. He was able to handle that guy but a better DE would have beaten him soundly on a few plays.

Picking nits. There is always something to work on.

I noticed that too but I suspect that type of aggressive approach could be ripe for Justin to go underneath of the pressure for a pretty large gain.

 

[sparcboxbuck]

If that little bitch pops his mouth off again I'm going to challenge him to post validations of his model based on bets he'd place in Vegas using the model. I'll ride him until he blocks me.

It's a shit model and frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see features in the model that 'leak' into SEC bias territory.

There's a guy, from Toledo strangely enough, who has a really good methodology for predicting game outcomes in lacrosse. It's probably the best sports model I've seen and if the FPI bitch talks any more shit imma point him to a decent model that he should try to emulate.

Edit: I’ll see if I can find my reply to his post about 76%... but ultimately, a model needs to perform over baseline rates or it’s worthless.

In this case, assuming that the model said 76% tOSU, his model was actually a contrarian indicator at a pretty significant level. There’s no way what we saw on Saturday was 3:1 odds.

Fuck’n ESPN math hacks.

 

[Systems_id]

76% is a C

Just sayin'

 

[ScriptOhio]

Ten Things We Learned From Ohio State’s 42-0 Shutout Over Cincinnati

This was the game we were going to have notions confirmed, and after Ohio State’s 42-0 win over Cincinnati on Saturday, there were plenty of confirmations going on.

Justin Fields looked as comfortable as a goat in a junk yard and his receivers gave him more cushions than a bumper pool factory.

The running game responded as well, providing room for three explosive runs for JK Dobbins. The only sack allowed was a coverage sack with just two receivers out in the pass pattern.

Defensively, the Buckeyes were again impressive against the run. They allowed 107 yards rushing, but 79 of those yards came on the final drive with the backups of the backups in the game.

The secondary allowed a few passes to get through, but it required precision throws to get it done.

This was a solid win against a conference contender.

But what did we learn?

1. The Buckeyes still have more in the tank.
This week the Ohio State offense added some more tweaks to the offense, including the pistol formation. They continued to find room running the ball in two tight end sets from under center, and more will continue to come from those play-action possibilities. Defensively, we saw some more blitzes this weekend, particularly from Shaun Wade. There were more moving parts against Cincinnati than there were against Florida Atlantic, and it feels like this is just the beginning.

2. Chase Young is Bosaing.
Before the season, somebody on the message board asked about Chase Young being on Nick or Joey Bosa’s level at the start of the season. I laughed it off because the notion was a little optimistic. And then the season began. Young has tallied 1.5 sacks in each of the Buckeyes’ two games and would have more if holding wasn’t allowed. He looks every bit as good as either of the Bosa brothers as juniors and he is bad news for the Big Ten this year.

3. The gunners have potential.
Drue Chrisman punted from Cincinnati’s 39-yard line on Ohio State’s first drive. He put enough air under the ball that sophomore receiver Chris Olave was waiting for the ball to come to him at the goal line. At one point I think I even saw Olave check his watch. He coaxed the ball to him and downed it at the 1-yard line. Chrisman’s second punt was fair caught at the 8-yard line because of the coverage. His third punt just made it into the end zone ahead of Jeff Okudah. Against FAU, Olave arrived at the same time as a punt and was almost a bit out of control. Both Okudah and Olave have a standard to uphold and while they aren’t quite there yet, they’re working hard (and fast) to get there.

4. Baron Browning has found a home.
Give credit to Baron Browning and Tuf Borland sharing the middle linebacker spot equally, and both being able to slide over to Will whenever needed. This is a versatile group of linebackers who can do many different things. Baron Browning is one of the best examples of that. He can cover ground well, which allows him to be used in both pass coverage and blitzing. You know how it took Curtis Grant four years to look like he belonged? Browning beat him by a year.

5. Binjimen Victor is turning into a go-to guy.
The thing I like most about Binjimen Victor right now is that when he catches the ball — no matter where that is — he is looking to do something with the ball after the catch. He isn’t satisfied with simply getting the first down and moving the chains. He wants more and he’s putting moves on defensive backs to get it. But he isn’t doing it at the expense of protecting the football. If there is nothing there, he gets down. Victor is doing a nice job of being in control.

Entire article: https://theozone.net/2019/09/ten-things-learned-ohio-state-cincinnati/

 

[ScriptOhio]

The Buckeye Watch: Ohio State Shutout Leaves Cincinnati Chilly

Just as somebody probably predicted somewhere, the Ohio State Buckeyes put it to the Cincinnati Bearcats and came away with a 42-0 shutout win.

Justin Fields was accurate, JK Dobbins was explosive, the receivers were open, the offensive line was suggestive, and the defensive line was not.

The back seven continues to look like they should look — fast, ferocious, and flying to the football.

All is good in Columbus right now. Many expected some struggles this week for the Buckeyes before they eventually pulled free. Those struggles never really materialized, which is a pretty good sign moving forward.

10:35 I’m a little bit surprised that Tyler Friday was listed ahead of Tyreke Smith in the depth chart this week, but I’d remind you that Jonathon Cooper was also listed ahead of Chase Young to start the year last season as well. Both are going to play, provided Smith is full go.

10:48 Today is an opportunity for JK Dobbins to get back on the good side of Buckeye fans who have grown to doubt him. He needs to make some yards on his own, rather than continuing to just get a little more than the bare minimum from what his offensive line allows.

10:53 I ran out of time last night to write about it, but today is either the day that Justin Fields announces his presence to the rest of the nation, or the day he shows that he’s still just a true sophomore making his second career start and there is still more construction to be done here in Rome.

11:29 Urban Meyer just said on the FOX pregame show that he knows Ryan Day shut down the game plan after the Buckeyes went up 28-0 last week and held plenty of stuff back for this week. He also said that OSU has likely been preparing for Cincinnati in camp because they opened with a lesser opponent like Florida Atlantic.

11:36 First-team DEs warming up are Chase Young and Tyler Friday. Twos are Tyreke Smith and Zach Harrison.

11:44 I’ve got the Michigan game ready to go on my phone because I plan to be super-bored by this Cincinnati game.

12:03 Cincinnati wins the toss, so OSU will get the ball. I’m not sure which way the wind is blowing. The flag is twisted around the pole. It’s amazing that flag technologies have not advanced since Betsy Ross invented them back in 1776.

12:08 Justin Fields takes off and picks up a first down on second and seven but it’s coming back because of a hold by Jonah Jackson. I knew it was dangerous signing an offensive lineman from New Jersey who “fell off the back of a truck.”

12:10 Drue Christman punts and Chris Olave waits for it to bounce to him at the 1-yard line. That’s some stellar execution that is going to put the Bearcats in an impossible situation.

12:17 KJ Hill drops another pass as he gets hit. That’s two in two weeks, though I’m not sure his foot was actually in bounds. If he drops another pass next week, it might be time for an intervention. “KJ, I think you know why we’re all here.”

12:20 First and goal from the 7-yard line. Will they pound it in to make a point? Nope, well…sort of. Fields faked the hand-off, but then took off up the middle for the touchdown. He got hit hard at the goal line. He sticks his arm up and gets pulled to his feet. That was pretty easy. Buckeyes lead it 7-0 with 8:58 to play in the first quarter.

12:21 Ohio State is currently 14 points off of their 45-point pace from last week. Not good.

12:24 Army just scored. Prepare for chaos.

12: 25 Nice 21-yard gain to the tight end just over Malik Harrison’s hands. Good throw by Desmond Ridder. That’s an example of just how precise a quarterback needs to be in order to get something on this pass defense.

12:27 Third and nine. Ridder drops back and gets sacked by Chase Young. Or Davon Hamilton. Or Malik Harrison. I guess that’s a good thing to try and figure out who got a sack for a change.

12:30 Fields hits KJ Hill on a corner route for a big gain, but then he gets the ball ripped out and Cincinnati recovers it. There’s a penalty. Holding on defense, so the Buckeyes get bailed out. Do we bring this up at KJ’s intervention? I’m not sure.

12:33 Pass into the flats for Austin Mack. I’ll call that a “power swing pass” and Mack fights for eight yards.

12:34 Fields keeps it for one and slides down on his back like he’s getting ready to breakdance. He doesn’t even have a sheet of cardboard with him. Is he crazy? (He’s still a better slider than Dwayne Haskins.)

12:35 Fourth and one. Justin Fields goes empty, he gets hit early and falls just short of the first down on the counter keeper to the left. Good thing Ohio State has started going under center so they can ignore the quarterback sneak and infuriate even more people.

12:44 Cincinnati running back Michael Warren picks up a yard before Baron Browning wraps him up and throws him down. What a difference a year (and some new coaches) have made on Browning’s play as a Buckeye. He’s noticeable. In fact, he’s dang hard to miss.

Entire article: https://theozone.net/2019/09/buckeye-watch-ohio-state-shutout-cincinnati/

 

[ScriptOhio]

 

[ScriptOhio]

 

[ScriptOhio]

 

[Tanner]

Dan Hope who does the snap counts on 11W really does the Lord's work. The LB breakdown was especially interesting