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Game Thread Ohio State @ That TeaX Up North - 11/30/19, Noon (FOX)

Statistical Projection: Ohio State at Michigan

DSC_9176-Edited.jpg


November 30 – Ohio State at Michigan
Quarterback Projections
Let’s do this! For “The Game,” it’s pretty widely known that:
  1. Ohio State will win.
  2. Aside from the aforementioned bullet point, how it all shakes out is often unpredictable.
Just last year, for instance, Michigan was the betting favorite and came into the contest with the best statistical defense in the nation. That is, until Urban Meyer looked like Red Beaulieu with a stolen playbook. Jim Harbaugh and Don Brown (collective Coach Kleins in this Waterboy comparison) had no answer for a Buckeye team that put up 62 points and won by 23.

So, how does one compete with a rivalry that often throws remarkable curveballs at its viewing audience? With boring averages and random guesswork, that’s how!

Justin Fields is averaging 16 completions per game this year on 23 attempts, so that’s exactly what you’re getting in this one. Boring average? Check.

Random guesswork? Yea, got that covered too. I think he’ll throw for more than his game average, largely because of a huge catch and run TD from Chris Olave. Fields will complete another touchdown in the game, and will also rush for one. Like Penn State, we’ll see him used much more in the run game than we’ve been used lately. He carries 14 times for 61 yards.



Running Back Projections
We’ve reached that part of the year, and especially in this game, where the coaching staff unleashes the dogs. It’s scary to think that Dobbins has been somewhat tethered until now, but it’s the truth. Until last week against the Nittany Lions when he toted the rock 36 times, he had not had a single game in which he had 25 carries.

This season, in games in which he carries the ball 20 or more times he also averages 6.5 yards per carry. Though I have that ypc average dropping a tad in this battle, I think J.K. gets the ball 28 times on the ground and bruises this good Michigan defense to the tune of 148 yards rushing and a score.

Master Teague III will spell him a few times in the matchup, mostly in the 4th quarter. He won’t get into the endzone, but will bulldoze his way through a couple of linebackers as he seeks out contact with Wolverine defenders and stays in bounds to run the clock.



Pass Catcher Projections
I’m just going to rip the Band-aid off and dive right into this section, since it will inevitably be wrong.
  • Chris Olave, who you may remember from such Michigan highlights as this, or this, or this, will make their fans cry with his performance again this year.
    • The sophomore receiver (a little louder for the people in the back… he’s just a SOPHOMORE) will end the game with 4 catches, nearly 100 yards and a score.
  • K.J. Hill and Binjimen Victor wind up with very similar stats, each catching 3 passes for around 40 yards.
  • Austin Mack and Garrett Wilson move the chains a couple of times themselves, each hauling in a pair of passes.
  • Last, but not least, Luke Farrell snags a TD pass over the middle, proving to UM fans that we use tight ends too.


Specialist Projections
Blake Haubeil scores 8 points in this contest on 5 extra points and a field goal. For all of my friends keeping me accountable for any terrible projections or stat mistakes, this includes a rushing score by Fields, 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD by Dobbins, AND a defensive score. I don’t want to give too much away and say specifically who causes it, but it rhymes with “ace sprung.”

Drue Chrisman boots 4 punts in this one, pinning UM deep twice and averaging just over 40 yards per kick.



Ryan Day and OSU bounce back from a somewhat sloppy win over Penn State (bounce back from a win… I know, I know <eye roll emoji>), take care of the football, and beat Michigan for an 8th consecutive time. The Game is close for much of the first half, with Ohio State taking a small lead into the break. A quick start in the 3rd quarter puts the Buckeyes up by 14 and they cruise to another victory over their rival. The main factor slowing down the Buckeyes is the weather in Ann Arbor, but they still win by 18.

Final Score Prediction
Ohio State 38 – Michigan 20

Entire article: https://theozone.net/2019/11/statistical-projection-ohio-state-michigan/
 
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Michigan's roller coaster season meets its inevitable impediment in top-ranked Ohio State

The Buckeyes have won seven straight and 14 of the last 15 against the Wolverines


Urban Meyer has been associated with another off-the-field shocker! In the upscale suburb of Dublin, he has opened a sports bar that bears his name. OK, that's not exactly the surprise. Urban Meyer's Pint House is actually a classy place.

upload_2019-11-27_18-49-49.jpeg...upload_2019-11-27_18-50-41.jpeg

Lots of glass, craft beers and high-definition TVs. Urban himself recommends the linguini and clams. It did not disappoint.

The rarity for Meyer -- becoming another sports figure to capitalize on his name, image and likeness in the restaurant business -- is that he chose a unique theme for this establishment.

He decided to stick it to Michigan. At every turn, actually. And with extreme prejudice.

Meyer has left a hall-of-fame coaching career -- for now -- but he has not stopped reminding folks every day how he got there.

There is a sign in the restaurant pointing to both men's and women's restrooms labeled, "Dining Room For Michigan Fans." In the men's commode, amid reminders of Meyer's famous sayings and accomplishments ("Why Be Around Average?" "Home Depot 2004 Coach of the Year") is a framed picture of his own "7-0 Ale."

If you don't get the reference, consider the "7-0 Room" is perpetually reserved exclusively for Urban and Shelley Meyer. When they aren't around, it is available to the public and stands as an overt reminder of Meyer's record against Michigan.

"You don't wear the blue in our office," Ohio State defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. "You don't say the word [Michigan]. I'd love to see [a rivalry] bigger in all sports."

Even if Jim Harbaugh never sets foot in Urban Meyer's Pint House, he doesn't have to be reminded.

Here we are again. It's Ohio State-Michigan week, which lately has become an annual party for Buckeyes and an annual referendum on Harbaugh's job performance with the Wolverines.

Harbaugh is responsible for only four of the seven consecutive losses. But that doesn't relieve him of his biggest failing in five seasons as the ultimate Michigan Man -- not beating Ohio State even once.

Entire article: https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...evitable-impediment-in-top-ranked-ohio-state/
 

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Statistical Projection: Ohio State at Michigan

DSC_9176-Edited.jpg


November 30 – Ohio State at Michigan
Quarterback Projections
Let’s do this! For “The Game,” it’s pretty widely known that:
  1. Ohio State will win.
  2. Aside from the aforementioned bullet point, how it all shakes out is often unpredictable.
Just last year, for instance, Michigan was the betting favorite and came into the contest with the best statistical defense in the nation. That is, until Urban Meyer looked like Red Beaulieu with a stolen playbook. Jim Harbaugh and Don Brown (collective Coach Kleins in this Waterboy comparison) had no answer for a Buckeye team that put up 62 points and won by 23.

So, how does one compete with a rivalry that often throws remarkable curveballs at its viewing audience? With boring averages and random guesswork, that’s how!

Justin Fields is averaging 16 completions per game this year on 23 attempts, so that’s exactly what you’re getting in this one. Boring average? Check.

Random guesswork? Yea, got that covered too. I think he’ll throw for more than his game average, largely because of a huge catch and run TD from Chris Olave. Fields will complete another touchdown in the game, and will also rush for one. Like Penn State, we’ll see him used much more in the run game than we’ve been used lately. He carries 14 times for 61 yards.



Running Back Projections
We’ve reached that part of the year, and especially in this game, where the coaching staff unleashes the dogs. It’s scary to think that Dobbins has been somewhat tethered until now, but it’s the truth. Until last week against the Nittany Lions when he toted the rock 36 times, he had not had a single game in which he had 25 carries.

This season, in games in which he carries the ball 20 or more times he also averages 6.5 yards per carry. Though I have that ypc average dropping a tad in this battle, I think J.K. gets the ball 28 times on the ground and bruises this good Michigan defense to the tune of 148 yards rushing and a score.

Master Teague III will spell him a few times in the matchup, mostly in the 4th quarter. He won’t get into the endzone, but will bulldoze his way through a couple of linebackers as he seeks out contact with Wolverine defenders and stays in bounds to run the clock.



Pass Catcher Projections
I’m just going to rip the Band-aid off and dive right into this section, since it will inevitably be wrong.
  • Chris Olave, who you may remember from such Michigan highlights as this, or this, or this, will make their fans cry with his performance again this year.
    • The sophomore receiver (a little louder for the people in the back… he’s just a SOPHOMORE) will end the game with 4 catches, nearly 100 yards and a score.
  • K.J. Hill and Binjimen Victor wind up with very similar stats, each catching 3 passes for around 40 yards.
  • Austin Mack and Garrett Wilson move the chains a couple of times themselves, each hauling in a pair of passes.
  • Last, but not least, Luke Farrell snags a TD pass over the middle, proving to UM fans that we use tight ends too.


Specialist Projections
Blake Haubeil scores 8 points in this contest on 5 extra points and a field goal. For all of my friends keeping me accountable for any terrible projections or stat mistakes, this includes a rushing score by Fields, 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD by Dobbins, AND a defensive score. I don’t want to give too much away and say specifically who causes it, but it rhymes with “ace sprung.”

Drue Chrisman boots 4 punts in this one, pinning UM deep twice and averaging just over 40 yards per kick.



Ryan Day and OSU bounce back from a somewhat sloppy win over Penn State (bounce back from a win… I know, I know <eye roll emoji>), take care of the football, and beat Michigan for an 8th consecutive time. The Game is close for much of the first half, with Ohio State taking a small lead into the break. A quick start in the 3rd quarter puts the Buckeyes up by 14 and they cruise to another victory over their rival. The main factor slowing down the Buckeyes is the weather in Ann Arbor, but they still win by 18.

Final Score Prediction
Ohio State 38 – Michigan 20

Entire article: https://theozone.net/2019/11/statistical-projection-ohio-state-michigan/
Statistical Projection: PAIN
 
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