Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA): Pedophile Enabler U. Edition
The fifth game of the year is usually late enough in the season to get something of value from DSA, but this year I have to wonder.
Some of you may recall that DSA compares each team to other teams that your opponents have played. This early in the year, the small sample size and the wide variation in the strength of non-conference schedule makes DSA a crap shoot. This year, there has been more than sample size that skews the numbers.
For example, Ohio State's Defense went up against TCU's Offense indoors, while SMU's Defense faced them in the rain. Having seen the game, it seemed to me that they took very few steps to keep the balls dry or change them out, and there were quite a few issues as a result. All of this means that OSU's defense gave up more than SMU's did to TCU's offense, but I doubt there are many people in America who would take SMU's defense over the Silver Bullets.
Similarly, PSU's passing output is compared to other passing offenses that faced Pitt, including Georgia Tech. This doesn't seem like a very useful comparison.
Then there is the serious Buckeye Hangover that TCU and Rutgers (at least) seem to have. This has a negative effect on OSU's DSA numbers.
On top of all this, App State's game vs. USM was postponed or canceled (who cares which). This left Appie's only FBS opponent apart from PSU to be Charlotte. That's right, the same Charlotte that is even newer to FBS than Appie themselves. For this reason, as loathe as I am to discard data when I have so little to begin with, I discarded the App State game from the analysis of Penn State.
For those keeping track at home, there are fair few things that would seem to skew DSA in PSU's favor, and we haven't even discussed the fact that Ohio State has coasted in the 2nd half in three of their games, whereas PSU seems to sleep walk through the first half and has had to keep the starters in much longer than OSU.
So with knowing a priori that we should expect this analysis to unfairly favor PSU, let's look at the numbers:
Differential Passing Offense
Ohio State: 1.85 (OSU gains 85% more through the air than their opponents give up, on average, to others)
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.86 (Arm-Punt McSorely throws for only 86% of the yardage that opponents typically give up)
Advantage: Ohio State - huge
Differential Pass Efficiency
Ohio State: 1.73
Pedophile Enabler U: 1.16
Advantage: Ohio State - significant
Differential Rushing Offense
Ohio State: 1.10
Pedophile Enabler U: 1.30
Advantage: Peds - moderate
Offensive First Downs
Ohio State: 1.51
Pedophile Enabler U: 1.08
Advantage: Ohio State - significant
Total Offense
Ohio State: 1.46
Pedophile Enabler U: 1.06
Advantage: Ohio State - substantial
Scoring Offense
Ohio State: 1.80
Pedophile Enabler U: 2.02
Advantage: Peds - moderate (When you consider that OSU has coasted in 3 of 4 second halves, I wouldn't read much into this)
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Differential Passing Defense
Ohio State: 0.84 (OSU only allows 84% as many passing yards as opponents gain, on average, against other FBS opponents)
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.65 (PSU defense giving up only 65% of their opponents' usual passing output)
Advantage: Peds - significant
Differential Pass Efficiency Defense
Ohio State: 1.02 (ugh)
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.80
Advantage: Peds - significant
Differential Rushing Defense
Ohio State: 0.93
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.89
Advantage: Peds - small
Offensive First Down Defense
Ohio State: 0.82
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.77
Advantage: Peds - small
Total Defense
Ohio State: 0.88
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.77
Advantage: Peds - moderate
Scoring Defense
Ohio State: 0.73
Pedophile Enabler U: 0.53
Advantage: Peds - moderate
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For those of you who have read this far, you either remember or you've figured out already that DSA can provide a prediction for each of these statistics by using the DSA percentages and multiplying by each teams base stats. The ones that matter are the score, so here they are.
DSA Prediction: Peds 34 to 43 points
Bucks 24 to 29 points
Like I said, this analysis favored PSU for numerous reasons.
The only thing we can draw from this with any certainty is that which we already knew: If Ohio State does not solve the back 7 issues, or at least improve substantially, then Saturday will be a long night.
The offense is unbelievable, but the defense needs to live up to its potential for anything good to happen this year. They did it in 2014 (recall the crap fest against Cinci in Late September that year?); so we know it's possible.
