So what do you Lax guys think of the matchup with Maryland?
On paper I think that it's advantage UMD. Maybe a two goal game on paper. For reference, they are bringing nine all Americans into the game... just another year for UMD. We're bringing six... a high water mark for us.
FoGo: Withers has been mostly up this year. There's no denying that he's been super critical in the run. He'll have to continue that on Monday. He'll be going against a guy that went just under 50% against Baptiste... the best in the biz. Faceoffs will be won in the wings on Monday. I like our wing play with Friebott (LSM Long Stick Middie) and Mancini (SSDM short stick defensive middie). If they script the face off against UMD the way that we did against Denver when we played them, we'll be OK there. As I said after that game, I've never seen a team play as hard from whistle to posession as our wings did against Denver.
Advantage tOSU.
UMD Offensive Midfield v. Our Defensive Midfield: Kelly was 50% of their offensive production in the B1G championship game. Rotanz is also a scorer at middie. I see them moving Rotanz to attack for the final. He's played both positions this year. If Rotanz plays attack I think we have to LSM Kelly. Friebott will have a long day if that's the case. If Rotanz plays middie it becomes a bit of a pick your poison. They are both shooters and good dodgers. Without a doubt when Rotanz is at middie he takes a lot of the load off of Kelly, but if I'm Tillman I drop Rotanz down to attack to keep a dangerous player on the field paired up with Rambo. I think that UMD does have two legit middie lines. That said, I don't think that they see a lot of scoring production from the second and third lines. This could be a good thing for us. I am clearly a fan of Terefenko the SSDM who is out for injury. I think this is a big loss. Our SSDMs will really have to step up.
Advantage UMD.
tOSU Offensive Midfield v. UMD Defensive Midfield: Our advantage here is depth. We do have a lot of options here and guys who can score in different ways. Tre will invert from attack to see if he can get some step downs. Pearson has a cannon and _finally_ started dodging with that big body. JT Blubaugh is greasy in a good way. Add in that we've got a senior captain in Pfister who has exceptional LAX IQ to run the top of the offense and a few attack who can come on and dodge north / south, we could keep them running. There's been a few times that Nick has had a couple extra attack on the field as they are perfectly capable offensive middies. If I were Nick I'd be probing their defense with dodges from this group to see if we can draw slides then dishing the ball looking for outside shooting from Pearson and Tre until the stop that. They'll have to eventually come out to the shooters which will open up the crease. We'll have to keep the ball hot and on stick. Bad passing and pushing too hard while probing / not getting out of doubles if they come will kill. They've played both ways this year. Let's hope that the team doesn't leave their stick skills on the bus.
Slight advantage tOSU.
Their Poles v. our Attack: On paper, they've got one of the best long poles in the game with Muller. Frankly, I think their poles are pretty solid across the board. If Tre starts at attack I see them matching Muller on him. This could play to our hand well as Tre is probably a better outside shooter than he is a stick handler / dodger. Muller will have his stick in Tre's hands all game long. If Tre is able to get a step and free hands a few times he'll score. The rest of the matchups will be interesting. They slide and recover well, but if we can force the slides and keep ball in sticks with good passing, it could create opportunities for us. Normally I'd say to look for tOSU to run two man game here but that didn't work very well on Saturday. Likely the matchups from Towson at play, but we really didn't start scoring until we started isolating. I like Jasinski's quicks against them. It will be critical, when he's got the ball, that he protects his stick. He'll have to grow up a lot between Saturday and Monday to recognize when to not force something that isn't there. I expect that he'll be able to get a step or two on his man below GLE and drive. I further expect that this is going to force help to come quickly and UMD's slides won't be quick enough. He'll either be one on one with the goalie or be looking to where the slide came from to assist. While I like the speed mismatch that Jasinski creates, I also expect Chell or Buckley to get the start. Give up a little bit of speed for more sure ball handling and experience. Given that both of them are substantially bigger (both 6+ they will have to work off ball to be effective) Fannell will be an interesting matchup for them as well. I love Eric's game, primarily because it's very similar to how my son plays and I enjoy seeing what my son could be doing on the field in four or five years... He's big and strong enough to get topside for a better angle, but in the last few weeks he's really been effective going to the hole off a secondary move. His box background is a huge benefit in that he's a creative shooter and passer. He may not always be scoring goals but he's almost impossible to keep off the scorer's sheet as a facilitator. We'll see what role(s) he's asked to play. He's also done a much better job of late protecting the ball. There were a few times earlier in the season that he was deposessed because he didn't take good care of the stick. That seems to be in the past.
Slight Advantage UMD
Our Poles against their Attack: As far as our Defiense goes, Ben Randall (also 1st team AA) has been playing extremely strong ball. I look for them to put Randall on Rambo (UMD 1st team AA Atackman). UMD will counter with a two man game (think pick & roll) to get a short stick defender matched up on Rambo. They'll do the same with Heacock. We've done a very good job late in the season with recovery, slides and switches when opponents have tried to do that. That said, we really put our poles on an island against Towson. They got a step on our guys a number of times and hand free hands dodging from below GLE to above the crease. I was pretty surprised by their athleticism and how long we left our poles on an island. I get it... send help and you create an open guy... and Towson is a very good passing team. But we left Tommy out to dry a couple of times in the first half by not sending help. I think that we may see more of the same from UMD. Rambo will be a handful for Randall but I think Ben can minimize his scoring. Heacock will be a big challenge for Eric Evans who I expect to pole Heacock or Rotanz if they drop him to attack. I think you go into the championship game putting your best players in a position to get on and stay on the field. If Rotanz doesn't start there's not much fall off to Maltz... but Rambo and Heacock are the primary guys we need to shut down. Not many weaknesses on their Attack line, thats for sure. The big key for our poles is "big eye ball, little eye man." That is to say, be aware of the scoring threat but don't lose your man watching ball.
Slight Advantage UMD
How it plays out: If we can get and maintain possessions and keep UMD Poles on the field running, we're athletic and deep enough to wear them out. If we have short possessions and their close D gets good rest it could be ugly. My strategy would be to slow down the game on the offensive side of the field and really be selective with shot selection. Probe the defense, look for the pass to the open man. Don't, for God's sakes, put the ball on the turf.
Goalies:
Give me Tommy Carey between the pipes any day. Smart player, tough as nails. Stops all the shit he should and then stops some shit that hardly anyone could. Very few mistakes from Tommy this year. Would like to see him stay home a bit more than he does. He will chase out of cage from time to time. Call me old school, but I want the guy wiht the big goalie stick between the pipes... let the others sort it out.
Advantage tOSU
Coaching:
Nick and his experience with the U19 national team has been huge. He learned a LOT. It shows. Frankly, I hope that he's happy in the 43210. People will start calling if they haven't already. If he stays he'll be remembered as the guy who woke a giant. Knows how to coach with a lead and from behind. Calming influence and has his team playing above expectations.
Tillman, no doubt, knows his shit. Been there... but still hasn't done that. He's in the team picture for the best coaches in the biz. I still think that he pinches a marble on Monday if his kids get down by three at any point.
Slight advantage tOSU
Intangibles:
I think that UMD expects to be there. I think that they are, without a doubt, a great team. Consistent all year long. Three losses by a sum of three goals. That's damn near perfect. I also think they, although they will never say it, expect to win. I think it bites them in the ass.
I think that tOSU is playing for each other. There's a closeness among that team that Nick has fostered. I've been acutely aware of it since the tourney at Marquette this spring... and it's only gotten stronger. The team has a fight in them that I don't think you get without having to really fight adversity. You've got highly skilled younger guys fighting for their lives for the older guys. And you've got older guys who weren't expected to be there who like the taste of winning.
Slight advantage tOSU.
Prediction: 12-12 in regulation. We win the draw in OT and Fannell goes behind the back off stick low for the win.