Game Thread Ohio State 3, Southern Cal 35 (Sept. 13)

[Gatorubet]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16iNk1hLJt4]YouTube - Monty Python - Silly Olimpiad[/ame]

 

[TomR1]

Nobody is questioning the fact that tOSU will have an outstanding team.

I asked the d-line question because Pete likes to establish the run just like JT. It sounds to me that tOSU has one less loss than USC from two excellent defensive lines. Thanks for the answer.

Tom

 

[jwinslow]

If Wilson were taking gholston's spot, than losing vern would actually be an upgrade to the run d. But Gibson is taking vern's spot, so the run d there is a big question, with Gibson's SEC size at DE. He was the first overall pick of the spring game draft.

Heyward is the wildcard here, and will likely move around with Wilson back.

At SLB, if Terry gets the nod, he brings serious physicality & run stopping ability. He is a beast, but a bit limited vs the pass. I don't have the stats on me, but there was a huge shift in ypc vs Texas 06 depending on whether he was in.

 

[TomR1]

If you have watched many USC games you know that PC will start out with short passes--flanker screens and FB flars for example. USC is historically NOT a pound it down the gut team. While USC is 50-50 pass/run the runs typically come late in the game in a clock burning situation.

Things to consider:

1-If any tOSU backers are weak versus the pass bases on a Big10 perspective, they will be very weak from a Pac10 perspective.
2-If any defensive backs are small, USC has two big, tall receivers who will try to take advantage of them. So far neither Turner nor Ausberry have set the field on fire with their pass-catching ability but they do seem good with yards-after-catch.
3-Joe McKnight will test tOSU on the edge with good speed and excellent elusiveness. A backer setup to stop a power back may have throble with this guy.

 

[leroyjenkins]

NOBODY gets to the edge on our D. When people have success against us it is inbetween the tackles. We know our DT's need to step up, and if we are going to get beat its going to be because we cant stop the run up the middle and cant put pressure on (dirty) Sanchez with our front 4!

 

[OregonBuckeye]

Things to consider:

1-If any tOSU backers are weak versus the pass bases on a Big10 perspective, they will be very weak from a Pac10 perspective.
2-If any defensive backs are small, USC has two big, tall receivers who will try to take advantage of them. So far neither Turner nor Ausberry have set the field on fire with their pass-catching ability but they do seem good with yards-after-catch.
3-Joe McKnight will test tOSU on the edge with good speed and excellent elusiveness. A backer setup to stop a power back may have throble with this guy.

1. Both Marcus Freeman and Laurinaitis do very well in pass coverage. As jwinslow mentioned, Curtis Terry's strong suit is the run but the linebackers that will rotate in are on the smaller side and quick as cats(6'2" 210 lbs Jermale Hines, 5'11" 215 lbs Tyler Moeller, and 5'10" 210 lbs Brian Rolle).

2. Our star corner, Malcolm Jenkins, is 6'1" 200 lbs and very physical. He did a very nice job on 6'4" WR Limas Sweed from Texas a couple years ago.

Here's a nice highlight vid of some of his tackles.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_islQ52F3Qs"]YouTube - Malcolm Jenkins Ohio State CB Highlight Video[/ame]

Donald Washington is 6'0" though he's more of a cover corner. Two other corners expected to see plenty of action are Chimdi Chekwa and Andre Amos. Chekwa is over 5'11" and not afraid to make a tackle but he is very light and not the strongest. Amos was injured for the first half of last year and mostly saw special teams action when he returned but he looked very good in the spring game. He's 6'1"-6'2" 200 lbs and a big hitter. So, I'd think Amos and Jenkins will get the bulk of the work against your bigger receivers while Chekwa and Washington will match up with RoJo and Damian Williams.

3. As fast as Joe McKnight is, he along with the rest of your backs will struggle to get much outside of the tackles. Nearly all of LSU's and Illinois' rushing yardage against us came up the middle. Our DE's are taught to contain to prevent those long runs. I think your best bet is to attack the middle.


Our defense eats up toss plays and screens for breakfast. The two major faults last year were our inability to prevent teams from getting 5-6 yards a pop up the middle and defending the playaction pass.

 

[TomR1]

Yes I understand that "nobody beats us to the outside" comment. That is history. However, any USC fan will say "nobody beats us between the tackles" Also history.

What history doesn't take into account is that these are the two best teams of the decade. (Add LSU to make it 2 of the 3) History is a poor indicator of this game.

In my handicapping of this game USC may well lose between the tackles because of the combination of Beanie and the tOSU O-line and tOSU may well lose on the outside because of the Trojan playmakers on the edge. That Purdue couldn't beat tOSU to the outside or Washington couldn't beat USC to the inside is irrevelent.

 

[pokey]

2. Our star corner, Malcolm Jenkins, is 6'1" 200 lbs and very physical. He did a very nice job on 6'4" WR Limas Sweed from Texas a couple years ago.

Here's a nice highlight vid of some of his tackles.

YouTube - Malcolm Jenkins Ohio State CB Highlight Video

After watching that video, I suspect that Jenkins has the speed and elusiveness to be an excellent kickoff returner.

 

[jwinslow]

OSU puts a premium on height at the CB position... matchup issues are more likely to occur vs SS Kurt Coleman, a CB/S hybrid without the size. Washington is nowhere near as strong as Jenkins, but is not afraid to get physical.

1. Both Marcus Freeman and Laurinaitis do very well in pass coverage. As jwinslow mentioned, Curtis Terry's strong suit is the run but the linebackers that will rotate in are on the smaller side and quick as cats(6'2" 210 lbs Jermale Hines, 5'11" 215 lbs Tyler Moeller, and 5'10" 210 lbs Brian Rolle).

To expound on this, it is unknown who will take Larry Grant's place at SLB, but OSU's base package is typically the nickel formation, either 4-2-5 or 3-3-5. So you will see much more of Freeman & Laurinaitis defending the pass than Terry, even on first down.

 

[TheIronColonel]

1-If any tOSU backers are weak versus the pass bases on a Big10 perspective, they will be very weak from a Pac10 perspective.

Don't let your biases cloud your judgment. Last year the Big Ten had an average Team QB Rating of 128.7 and an average Team YPA of 6.9. The Pac10 had an average Team QB Rating of 122.3 and an average Team YPA of 6.7. As a conference, the Pac10 was anywhere from slightly worse to much worse than the Big Ten (for what it's worth, the team with the worst Team QB Rating from the Big Ten would have been the 6th best such team in the Pac10).

The Big Ten is known as the "three yards and a cloud of dust" conference, but that's old news. The conference passes frequently (only the Pac10 and Big 12 passed more times per game) and well. In fact, from the statistics, the Pac10 has basically no bragging rights in terms of being pass happy. Compared to the other BCS conferences, they rank 5th in Team QB Rating and dead last in YPA, whereas the big slow plodding Big Ten ranks 3rd in both categories (bragging rights: ahead of the ultra mega super happy SEC juggernaut in both, too). Check the table at the bottom of my post.

Now, I am not claiming USC isn't a great passing team. They are certainly that. But in light of the facts above, I think you might want to reconsider your claim of conference passing supremacy.

To wit, I do think our guys will have some trouble covering RB's running routes out of the back field, but that's more a function of the quality of your RB's than the shitiness of our LB's. We have one of if not the best LB corps in the nation; Laurinaitis is probably better in coverage than he is rushing the passer. Otherwise, as I said before, I'm not too worried about your WR's and TE's, though, based on the film I've seen. We've got a very good defensive secondary who, unless forced to play soft zone (ugh), should be able to blanket your flankers.

Time will tell, obviously.

Conference       Rating   YPA
Big 12           136.06   7.11
Big East        133.65   7.54
Big Ten         128.70   6.88
SEC              126.53   6.79
Pac10           122.34   6.74
ACC             121.96   6.81

 

[TomR1]

I think we all understand that when we are talking Conference generalities, we are not speaking about USC or Ohio State. These two teams have dominated their respective conferences for years and even more so recently.

Confrence statistics are skewed by the fact that the Pac10 plays 9 games against BCS teams in the conference and many Pac10 teams schedule games with BCS teams as opposed to weaker "gimmie" games. We would need a "BCS only" analysis for the statistics to be useful.

In reality the only interconfrence play that has enough games to provide meaningful statistics is the Big10+Notre Dame versus the Pac10. No other conferences play enough out-of-conference BCS teams to provide more than a smattering of data.

That being said, I have watched many B10 and P10 games. I am a Buckeye fan since 1955 and only a USC fan since 2002. (when my son matriculated) My opinion is that the Pac10 in general has better passing attacks with better skill position players and better pass defenses but the Big10 has better lines, linebackers, and greater depth. It is my view that middle-of-the-road teams in the Pac10 start out with good skill players and good passing attacks but cannot sustain this level due to injuries.

In general what I see differentiating the two confrences is the multiple release points of Pac10 QB's versus a more straightforward dropback style in the Big10. (I admit that my thinking is probably colored by watching some supposibly good meat chicken teams getting their a$$ kicked by USC in the Rose Bowl. I remember something like 8 sacks in the game by USC versus 2 allowed all year by the csUM) I understand that this is a generalization but I think it s significent in the development of conference pass defenses.

On to USC vs tOSU.

JT plays a pro, "run first to set up the pass offense". USC plays a "pass first to set up the run" offense. On defense both coaches play a "stop the run" defense

 

[Buckeye86]

JT plays a pro, "run first to set up the pass offense". USC plays a "pass first to set up the run" offense. On defense both coaches play a "stop the run" defense

JT isn't strictly run first. Practically the entire '06 season was pass first to set up the run due to the obvious skill we had at QB and WR that year. JT plays to his strengths.

This of course, is just to point that out to you, since this year the strength of the OSU offense will be the run game, so we probably will be run first this year, but that is not the only thing JT does.

I think there is a strong possibility that we show a five wide set at some point in the game, and quite frequently in the game, just to fuck with your defense. We definitely have the personal to pull that off. How well that works out for us will obviously depend on Boeckman.

I guess the point of me saying all of this is that JT is not afraid to go from two tight ends and a full back to five wide in a game, and he probably will.

 

[TheIronColonel]

I'm not trying to start a pissing contest by any means. I certainly think of the Pac10 as a more pass heavy conference than the Big Ten. I just also recognize that what I think and what is actually happening in the games isn't necessairly the same. I've already stated that I do this USC's RB's pose a significant obstacle for our LB corps. I just don't think it has anything whatsoever to do with Pac10/Big Ten passing differences.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Tom, have a look towards the end of this thread for some BCS only numbers. Honestly, I have not looked at them specifically for how OSU 2007 compares to USC 2007, or added up anything to see if the Big 10 or Pac 10 is or is not better. Just thought you might find the data intereting. I can't pretend to understand how Daddybigbucks does the voodoo that he do... you'll probably want to read several of the thread's earlier posts to understand DBBs method(s).

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Dude. You are actully saying that Northwestern has more hard core fans then the USC program??

PM me the phone # of the guy who sells you your dope.

With all due respect to those who have come here: There are Pop Warner teams with more hard core fans than USC. Before Pete Carroll was there, I simply could not engage anyone in SoCal in a conversation about College Football at any time of year. Even the sports fans looked at me like I had 3 heads when they learned that I followed football, especially the college variety.

Now there are some fans that are enthusiastic, but hard core is a different matter. If they stick with them through the hard times like Buckeye fans have done through the decades; then we'll have to reconsider. Until then, the few guys who have wandered by to discuss the game probably comprise the entire "hard core" of their fan base.

or buyin their blackberry's ( Jim Rome show haha)

Well come on now gator! haha I'm saying like the teams like Michigan, PSU, OSU, Wisconsin. As far as nationally you can say teams like ND, LSU, Florida, and Texas...

As far as teams who have bandwaggon fans I think it goes in this order

1. Va Tech- seriously they hardly had a program unti vick came. Because i use to live so close to their campus i've seen first hand what kind of animal mike vick has created (no pun intended lol).
...

I also lived in Virginia for awhile. The Hokie fans think they are hard core, but they have a lot to learn. They were very dismissive of OSU while I was there, thinking that they had permanently supplanted us in terms of prestige. They may still be so delusional for all I know.

Our upcoming series with them will teach their fan base a great deal about what a true hard-core fan base really looks like.

Yes I understand that "nobody beats us to the outside" comment. That is history. However, any USC fan will say "nobody beats us between the tackles" Also history.

What history doesn't take into account is that these are the two best teams of the decade. (Add LSU to make it 2 of the 3) History is a poor indicator of this game.

In my handicapping of this game USC may well lose between the tackles because of the combination of Beanie and the tOSU O-line and tOSU may well lose on the outside because of the Trojan playmakers on the edge. That Purdue couldn't beat tOSU to the outside or Washington couldn't beat USC to the inside is irrevelent.

LSU couldn't beat us to the outside. Granted LSU's speed was over rated - they were more of a power team. But it has been since the 80's when OSU was vulnerable on the edge. You don't have to be faster and more athletic to beat someone on the edge; you have to be MUCH faster and a LOT more athletic.

I don't doubt that McKnight is a special player. But our defense is special as well, at least on the outside. If we shore up the middle, this defense just might be remembered for a very long time.

McKnight is certain to make plays: plays that no other player we face will make on our defense. But he will also get stuffed on some plays in ways that no other defense you face will be able to stuff him. That is just one of the match-ups that make this game special.