Official Statistical Analysis Thread

[DaddyBigBucks]

DSC and DYC - Week 11

Team____________________DSC___DSC rk____DYC___DYC rk
Ohio_St._______________3.072____1______1.790____2
LSU____________________2.755____2______2.030____1
Oklahoma_______________2.556____3______1.474____7
West Virginia__________2.406____4______1.658____3
Kansas_________________2.348____5______1.383___12
Missouri_______________2.108____6______1.435____9
South Fla._____________2.098____7______1.477____6
Oregon_________________2.080____8______1.401___10
Cincinnati_____________2.048____9______1.167___36
Clemson________________1.998___10______1.527____5
Penn St._______________1.986___11______1.335___18
Florida________________1.905___12______1.347___16
Virginia Tech__________1.875___13______1.191___30
Arizona St.____________1.848___14______1.298___19
Southern California____1.763___15______1.469____8
Connecticut____________1.733___16______1.003___57
Texas__________________1.679___17______1.383___11
Illinois_______________1.660___18______1.178___32
Boise St.______________1.654___19______1.368___13
Georgia________________1.610___20______1.160___37
Wisconsin______________1.579___21______1.357___14
Michigan_______________1.566___22______1.240___20
Auburn_________________1.561___23______1.205___25
Arkansas_______________1.521___24______1.216___23
Utah___________________1.485___25______1.173___34
Rutgers________________1.450___26______1.353___15
Tennessee______________1.431___27______1.033___51
Kentucky_______________1.430___28______1.177___33
Alabama________________1.410___29______1.126___41
BYU____________________1.392___30______1.550____4



OSU is still #1 in DSC.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Differential Rushing Composite

works just like the scoring composite dRO/dRD.

Rank__Team____________________DRC
1_____LSU_____________________3.809
2_____Ohio St.________________3.176
3_____Oregon St.______________2.941
4_____West Virginia___________2.918
5_____Illinois________________2.521
6_____Oregon__________________2.501
7_____Oklahoma________________2.354
8_____Penn St.________________2.353
9_____Texas___________________2.262
10____Air Force_______________1.969
11____South Fla.______________1.956
12____Kansas__________________1.951
13____Florida_________________1.910
14____Southern California_____1.835
15____Georgia Tech____________1.761
16____Auburn__________________1.754
17____Cincinnati______________1.753
18____Wisconsin_______________1.711
19____Arizona St._____________1.692
20____UCF_____________________1.635
21____Navy____________________1.611
22____California______________1.606
23____Oklahoma St.____________1.601
24____Arkansas________________1.557
25____Virginia Tech___________1.529
26____Clemson_________________1.505
27____Texas A&M_______________1.476
28____Michigan________________1.461
29____Houston_________________1.446
30____Missouri________________1.443
31____Alabama_________________1.394
32____UCLA____________________1.389
33____Michigan St.____________1.381

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Differential Pass Efficiency Composite

Rank__Team____________________DPEC
1_____Ohio St.________________1.600
2_____Air Force_______________1.506
3_____Kansas__________________1.478
4_____LSU_____________________1.439
5_____Penn St.________________1.436
6_____Florida_________________1.426
7_____Oregon St.______________1.422
8_____West Virginia___________1.416
9_____Southern California_____1.405
10____Arizona St._____________1.401
11____Oklahoma________________1.390
12____Oregon__________________1.366
13____Clemson_________________1.316
14____Illinois________________1.290
15____Arkansas________________1.288
16____Michigan St.____________1.271
17____Georgia Tech____________1.269
18____Michigan________________1.261
19____Texas___________________1.247
20____Navy____________________1.245
21____California______________1.238
22____Missouri________________1.235

 

[lvbuckeye]

i guess you DON'T have to throw the stats out for The Game... it pretty much played out the way the numbers suggested it would... our DTs got healthier which obviously helped...

anyway, update efficiency numbers through the regular season:

offense: 12.41 yards/point
defense: 21.12 yards/point

hmm... even though we only gave up 91 yards and 3 points, to TSUN, that performance barely affected the defensive efficiency... i thought it would have a larger impact than that... but then again, when you hold them to no yards and no points, the yards/points metric wouldn't really grow that much... let this be a lesson that no matter how much information they contain, stats simply cannot tell the whole story...

LSU offense: 11.40 yards/point
LSU defense: 14.84 yards/point

Kansas offense: 10.92 yards/point
Kansas defense: 21.15 yards/point

West Virginia offense: 11.73 yards/point
West Virginia defense: 16.68 yards/point

Missouri offense: 11.93 yards/point
Missouri defense: 16.51 yards/point

interesting that West Virginia has slightly worse defensive efficiency than Missouri, yet Missouri weighs in at #33 in scoring D and #58 in total D, while WVU weighs in at #8 in scoring D and #4 in total D...

what do you make of that?

 

[t_BuckeyeScott]

that wvu has the ball longer?

 

[bkochmc]

Here's a statistical analysis for you DBB:

11-1
6-1
0-4

'Nuff said.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

interesting that West Virginia has slightly worse defensive efficiency than Missouri, yet Missouri weighs in at #33 in scoring D and #58 in total D, while WVU weighs in at #8 in scoring D and #4 in total D...

what do you make of that?

Efficiency only measures yards per point. If there are more of both, the ratio can still look "better" as long as the numerator grows more than the denominator (in the case of defensive efficiency).

Mizzou has a large denominator (ranked 33), but an enormous numerator (ranked 58). This is a bend, occasionally break, but snag enough turn-overs (ranked 13th in t.o. margin) to look good in the efficiency department kind of defense.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Offense - Week 12

Here are the offensive stats for Ohio State, the teams they played (I-A only) and the other two in the Big 10 thrown in for good measure.


Raw Numbers

Team________SO_____DSO_____TO_____DTO_____RO_____DRO_____PO_____DPO_____PE_____DPE
Ohio_St.___31.45__1.197__395.27__1.024__206.18__1.368__189.09__0.804__144.86__1.142
Akron______20.18__0.739__310.64__0.788__129.18__0.738__181.45__0.827__108.89__0.851
Wash.______28.82__1.278__387.09__1.106__195.82__1.623__191.27__0.835__110.25__0.942
N'west.____25.73__0.968__428.64__1.123__115.82__0.738__312.82__1.392__122.64__0.981
Minne._____26.73__1.097__416.64__1.138__165.09__1.110__251.55__1.156__121.42__1.003
PU_________31.18__1.171__413.36__1.096__132.27__0.843__281.09__1.275__123.11__0.968
Kent_St.___19.80__0.677__353.10__0.896__198.50__1.158__154.60__0.695__100.49__0.765
MSU________34.08__1.418__426.25__1.185__200.33__1.326__225.92__1.084__138.49__1.159
PSU________30.83__1.274__399.00__1.112__187.42__1.283__211.58__0.994__124.92__1.053
Wisc.______29.18__1.207__409.45__1.110__196.82__1.373__212.64__0.942__130.46__1.071
Ill._______29.45__1.211__425.45__1.135__265.18__1.891__160.27__0.683__121.95__0.978
scUM_______25.55__0.993__363.91__0.970__158.82__1.095__205.09__0.892__120.40__0.974

Indi.______29.45__1.119__382.18__0.973__150.00__0.964__232.18__0.980__131.96__1.034
Iowa_______18.50__0.626__316.33__0.765__126.25__0.761__190.08__0.767__115.08__0.874



National Rankings

Team_______SO_____DSO_____TO_____DTO_____RO_____DRO_____PO_____DPO_____PE_____DPE
Ohio_St.___35______35_____55_____50______18______16_____97______92_____14______21
Akron_____100______99____111____110______83______95____100______91____104_____106
Wash.______52______20_____62_____36______24_______7_____92______89____102______79
N'west.____66______67_____30_____28______98______96_____10_______9_____70______63
Minne._____62______42_____37_____25______44______38_____37______25_____75______54
PU_________36______36_____42_____38______80______82_____21______16_____68______70
Kent_St.__102_____109_____84_____91______22______33____114_____110____114_____116
MSU________25_______9_____34_____15______20______18_____58______36_____26______16
PSU________37______23_____53_____31______30______19_____69______56_____62______36
Wisc.______49______33_____45_____34______23______14_____67______68_____42______31
Ill._______46______31_____35_____26_______7_______4____112_____113_____73______64
scUM_______70______61_____80_____69______54______41_____81______75_____78______67

Indi.______47______40_____63_____65______63______62_____53______61_____38______43
Iowa______110_____113____108____113______86______91_____95_____102_____90______97



SO = Scoring Offense
TO = Total Offense
DSO = Differential Scoring Offense
DTO = Differential Total Offense
RO = Rushing Offense
DRO = Differential Rushing Offense
PO = Passing Offense
DPO = Differential Passing Offense
PE = Passing Efficiency
DPE = Differential Passing Efficiency


As with all my stats, all games vs. lower division opponents have been factored out.


Ohio State has not faced a single team that ranks in the top 25 in passing efficiency, and has faced only one team in the top 30 in differential passing efficiency. It is a virtual certainty that whatever quarterback they face in a Bowl will be the best QB they will have faced all year.

On the other hand, Ohio State has faced 5 teams in the top 20 in differential rushing offense.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Defense - Week 12

Here are the defensive stats for Ohio State, the teams they played (I-A only) and the other two in the Big 10 thrown in for good measure.


Raw Numbers

Team________SD_____DSD_____TD_____DTD_____RD_____DRD_____PD_____DPD_____PE_____DPE
Ohio_St.___11.09__0.380__229.73__0.559___76.36__0.409__153.36__0.685___93.72__0.764
Akron______28.64__1.175__387.73__1.080__177.09__1.268__210.64__0.961__132.52__1.067
Wash.______30.36__1.046__432.36__1.277__199.91__1.475__232.45__1.145__129.12__1.044
N'west.____33.82__1.268__424.18__1.126__172.36__1.040__251.82__1.193__144.81__1.166
Minne._____37.55__1.453__512.64__1.352__214.36__1.413__298.27__1.311__148.74__1.208
PU_________26.45__0.941__398.91__1.036__155.45__0.962__243.45__1.089__114.49__0.899
Kent_St.___31.30__1.273__405.20__1.113__172.10__1.230__233.10__1.041__149.79__1.215
MSU________26.83__1.050__351.33__0.955__134.08__0.925__217.25__0.974__128.64__1.059
PSU________17.58__0.684__306.58__0.845___87.92__0.542__218.67__1.091__119.12__0.965
Wisc.______22.64__0.852__348.00__0.890__141.27__0.820__206.73__0.946__116.48__0.929
Ill._______21.27__0.750__373.91__0.949__117.55__0.740__256.36__1.089__121.42__0.932
scUM_______19.00__0.636__325.27__0.801__149.91__0.827__175.36__0.780__103.11__0.805

Indi.______28.55__1.040__414.09__1.045__165.36__1.005__248.73__1.073__125.87__1.008
Iowa_______18.75__0.693__351.17__0.899__122.00__0.761__229.17__0.996__115.70__0.927



National Rankings

Team_______SD_____DSD_____TD_____DTD_____RD_____DRD_____PD_____DPD_____PE_____DPE
Ohio_St.____1_______1______1_______1______3_______1______1_______1______2_______3
Akron______66______87_____60______79_____77______97_____31______43_____80______80
Wash.______75______67_____88_____112_____96_____111_____64______99_____72______75
N'west.____99_____102_____83______88_____75______66_____87_____108_____99_____106
Minne.____107_____113____115_____118____109_____105____116_____113____109_____112
PU_________48______51_____68______67_____58______54_____78______83_____22______22
Kent_St.___82_____103_____69______84_____74______90_____67______72____113_____113
MSU________52______69_____34______43_____40______49_____44______47_____69______76
PSU________10______15______9______17______6_______5_____46______86_____37______48
Wisc.______30______37_____31______26_____49______31_____29______38_____30______34
Ill._______26______21_____47______40_____23______19_____89______82_____45______35
scUM_______19______10_____20______13_____54______34______6_______5_____11_______7

Indi.______65______66_____75______70_____67______61_____84______79_____60______62
Iowa_______16______16_____32______27_____28______22_____56______53_____25______32



SD = Scoring Defense
TD = Total Defense
DSD = Differential Scoring Defense
DTD = Differential Total Defense
RD = Rushing Defense
DRD = Differential Rushing Defense
PD = Passing Defense
DPD = Differential Passing Defense
PE = Passing Efficiency
DPE = Differential Passing Efficiency


As with all my stats, all games vs. lower division opponents have been factored out.


Ohio State's rankings are not typos.

 

[MrsB]

Thank you Daddy, you are just simply great.

 

[lvbuckeye]

Efficiency only measures yards per point. If there are more of both, the ratio can still look "better" as long as the numerator grows more than the denominator (in the case of defensive efficiency).

Mizzou has a large denominator (ranked 33), but an enormous numerator (ranked 58). This is a bend, occasionally break, but snag enough turn-overs (ranked 13th in t.o. margin) to look good in the efficiency department kind of defense.

i guess that's kind of the flip side to the reason that Ohio State's defensive efficiency didn't grow by much after The Game. i'm thinking that defensive efficiency can be seen as a bend/break indicator. in the Case of 11/17, the Silver Bullets didn't do either, so the metric didn't grow...

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

DSC and DYC - Week 12

Team____________________DSC_____DSC rk_____DYC_____DYC rk
Ohio St._______________3.150______1_______1.832______1
LSU____________________2.561______2_______1.805______2
Kansas_________________2.405______3_______1.440______8
West Virginia__________2.350______4_______1.586______3
Oklahoma_______________2.315______5_______1.416______9
South Fla._____________2.172______6_______1.443______7
Oregon_________________2.084______7_______1.392_____10
Cincinnati_____________2.052______8_______1.193_____29
Missouri_______________2.020______9_______1.389_____11
Virginia Tech__________1.968_____10_______1.210_____24
Clemson________________1.962_____11_______1.465______6
Florida________________1.914_____12_______1.329_____15
Penn St._______________1.862_____13_______1.315_____16
Arizona St.____________1.819_____14_______1.303_____18
Southern California____1.761_____15_______1.472______5
Boise St.______________1.761_____16_______1.368_____13
Connecticut____________1.692_____17_______0.989_____58
Georgia________________1.662_____18_______1.161_____33
Texas__________________1.661_____19_______1.372_____12
Illinois_______________1.614_____20_______1.197_____26
Utah___________________1.564_____21_______1.156_____36
Michigan_______________1.563_____22_______1.212_____23
Auburn_________________1.554_____23_______1.195_____27
Boston College_________1.549_____24_______1.289_____19
BYU____________________1.499_____25_______1.581______4
Arkansas_______________1.466_____26_______1.159_____34
Texas Tech_____________1.422_____27_______1.355_____14
Wisconsin______________1.417_____28_______1.246_____20
Tennessee______________1.406_____29_______1.057_____48
Rutgers________________1.405_____30_______1.312_____17
Michigan St.___________1.350_____31_______1.242_____21
Oklahoma St.___________1.343_____32_______1.206_____25
Kentucky_______________1.343_____33_______1.148_____39
Virginia_______________1.288_____34_______0.993_____57
TCU____________________1.278_____35_______1.157_____35
Alabama________________1.273_____36_______1.130_____41
California_____________1.248_____37_______1.132_____40
Purdue_________________1.244_____38_______1.058_____47
Air Force______________1.242_____39_______1.047_____52
UCF____________________1.237_____40_______1.088_____43
Washington_____________1.222_____41_______0.866_____85
Troy___________________1.221_____42_______1.148_____38
South Carolina_________1.195_____43_______1.048_____51
Oregon St._____________1.192_____44_______1.169_____31
Texas A&M______________1.184_____45_______1.002_____55
Florida St.____________1.174_____46_______1.038_____53
Georgia Tech___________1.163_____47_______1.167_____32
Louisville_____________1.161_____48_______1.153_____37
Wake Forest____________1.142_____49_______0.911_____73
Nebraska_______________1.134_____50_______1.086_____44
Maryland_______________1.116_____51_______0.966_____60
Kansas St._____________1.115_____52_______1.050_____50
Hawaii_________________1.109_____53_______1.230_____22
Tulsa__________________1.094_____54_______1.170_____30
Indiana________________1.076_____55_______0.932_____69
Arizona________________1.075_____56_______1.054_____49
Colorado_______________1.062_____57_______1.098_____42
Fresno St._____________1.050_____58_______0.699____110
UCLA___________________1.031_____59_______1.022_____54
Ball St._______________1.030_____60_______0.961_____61
Southern Miss._________1.019_____61_______0.841_____90
Mississippi St.________0.992_____62_______0.936_____66
Vanderbilt_____________0.959_____63_______0.934_____67
East Caro._____________0.917_____64_______0.816_____93
Houston________________0.906_____65_______1.195_____28
Iowa___________________0.903_____66_______0.850_____87
Central Mich.__________0.897_____67_______0.879_____80
Pittsburgh_____________0.895_____68_______1.059_____46
Middle Tenn. St._______0.846_____69_______0.830_____92
North Carolina St._____0.831_____70_______0.932_____68
New Mexico_____________0.828_____71_______0.939_____63
Mississippi____________0.821_____72_______0.906_____75
North Carolina_________0.808_____73_______0.926_____70
Navy___________________0.802_____74_______0.898_____77
Toledo_________________0.801_____75_______0.919_____71
Wyoming________________0.801_____76_______0.887_____79
Bowling Green__________0.784_____77_______0.899_____76
Washington St._________0.780_____78_______1.075_____45
Nevada_________________0.771_____79_______0.875_____81
Western Mich.__________0.768_____80_______0.857_____86
Northwestern___________0.763_____81_______0.998_____56
Colorado St.___________0.759_____82_______0.938_____64
Miami (Fla.)___________0.756_____83_______0.888_____78
Minnesota______________0.755_____84_______0.842_____89
UTEP___________________0.734_____85_______0.799_____96
Marshall_______________0.724_____86_______0.938_____65
Stanford_______________0.723_____87_______0.749____104
Ohio___________________0.718_____88_______0.796_____98
Arkansas St.___________0.715_____89_______0.955_____62
Fla. Atlantic__________0.703_____90_______0.918_____72
Iowa St._______________0.702_____91_______0.908_____74
Buffalo________________0.695_____92_______0.775____102
Memphis________________0.690_____93_______0.869_____82
La.-Monroe_____________0.676_____94_______0.868_____83
UNLV___________________0.676_____95_______0.972_____59
Tulane_________________0.666_____96_______0.867_____84
Miami (Ohio)___________0.649_____97_______0.840_____91
Southern Methodist_____0.636_____98_______0.842_____88
San Diego St.__________0.634_____99_______0.741____106
Akron__________________0.629____100_______0.729____107
Louisiana Tech_________0.628____101_______0.777____101
Notre Dame_____________0.618____102_______0.706____109
Rice___________________0.601____103_______0.729____108
Eastern Mich.__________0.597____104_______0.744____105
Utah St._______________0.579____105_______0.554____119
Army___________________0.577____106_______0.637____114
La.-Lafayette__________0.571____107_______0.811_____94
Duke___________________0.561____108_______0.593____117
Temple_________________0.558____109_______0.786____100
Kent St._______________0.532____110_______0.805_____95
San Jose St.___________0.525____111_______0.654____113
Baylor_________________0.520____112_______0.795_____99
North Texas____________0.503____113_______0.798_____97
Syracuse_______________0.502____114_______0.630____115
Idaho__________________0.477____115_______0.683____111
New Mexico St._________0.475____116_______0.753____103
UAB____________________0.460____117_______0.612____116
Northern Ill.__________0.444____118_______0.662____112
Florida Int'l__________0.318____119_______0.571____118

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

DSA predictions for every team

As you may know, differential scoring statistics can be combined with traditional scoring statistics in such a way that a prediction can be made for any potential game. The predictions are sometimes right on, and sometimes not; but barring injury they are usually remarkably close to the point spread given a game by 'Vegas.

It was a simple matter to put together a spread-sheet that calculated the predicted margin of victory for the Buckeyes against every team in Div. I-A. As it turns out, Differential Statistical Analysis provides a prediction that has OSU as a favorite against any team in the country. What follows is a ranking of teams based on their average margin of defeat when playing Ohio State.

As I have pointed out in the past, the one thing that skews this type of analysis is your Opponents' Collective Schedule Strength. What controls that more than anything at this point in the season is Conference Strength. Dominant Teams from top-heavy conferences will do very well in this type of analysis, but will not live up to it on the field.

This explains the relatively high positions of ACC and non-BCS teams in the table below, and to a lesser extent Big East and Big 12 teams. But it also begs the question: Does this apply to Ohio State? Are we the top team in the country based on this type of analysis because we have dominated a weak conference?


The rankings of our conference opponents suggest that our conference is actually a bit deeper and stronger than the media expects.

At this point, we'll just have to let the Bowls tell the story.



Rank__TEAM_______________________Predicted Margin vs. Buckeyes
1_____Ohio St.___________________N/A
2_____Kansas_____________________2.277
3_____LSU________________________3.850
4_____Oklahoma___________________4.568
5_____West Virginia______________4.613
6_____Virginia Tech______________7.190
7_____Southern California________7.200
8_____South Fla._________________7.633
9_____Cincinnati_________________8.006
10____Boise St.__________________8.044
11____Arizona St.________________8.094
12____Connecticut________________8.151
13____Clemson____________________8.201
14____Penn St.___________________8.361
15____Utah_______________________8.642
16____Oregon_____________________9.426
17____Missouri___________________9.560
18____Auburn____________________10.800
19____Michigan__________________11.007
20____Texas_____________________11.892
21____Georgia___________________12.007
22____BYU_______________________12.139
23____TCU_______________________12.195
24____Illinois__________________12.220
25____Virginia__________________12.270
26____Boston College____________12.434
27____Florida___________________13.273
28____Georgia Tech______________14.085
29____Rutgers___________________14.216
30____Arkansas__________________14.342
31____Florida St._______________14.576
32____Wisconsin_________________14.708
33____Air Force_________________14.759
34____Iowa______________________15.133
35____Texas Tech________________16.927

 

[kartaron]

As I have pointed out in the past, the one thing that skews this type of analysis is your Opponents' Collective Schedule Strength. What controls that more than anything at this point in the season is Conference Strength. Dominant Teams from top-heavy conferences will do very well in this type of analysis, but will not live up to it on the field.

This explains the relatively high positions of ACC and non-BCS teams in the table below, and to a lesser extent Big East and Big 12 teams. But it also begs the question: Does this apply to Ohio State? Are we the top team in the country based on this type of analysis because we have dominated a weak conference?

Based on positions of competition It looks like the Big 10, SEC and the Pac 10 are at least comparable. The 4 East teams in the top 12 seem so highly represented they might be a surprise in the bowls though the drop off between 4 and 5 is pretty big. It certainly implies that the East is very level at the top with no teams pulling far ahead.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Based on positions of competition It looks like the Big 10, SEC and the Pac 10 are at least comparable. The 4 East teams in the top 12 seem so highly represented they might be a surprise in the bowls though the drop off between 4 and 5 is pretty big. It certainly implies that the East is very level at the top with no teams pulling far ahead.

Those Big East teams look so good in this analysis because the rest of their conference is so dreadful. The fact that Auburn gacked up a hairball against South Florida helps too.

I don't buy it.

I have played around with numerous methods of ranking conferences by adding layers of abstraction to my analysis. I don't usually post the results here for two reasons:

1. The results (this year and last) suggest that the SEC is the best conference, though by a much smaller margin than the media seem to believe. Based on the rep that I get for stats, this board likes to see stats that make the Buckeyes and the Big 10 look good; to hell with how it was calculated.
2. The calculations are so complex that to explain what the numbers actually mean would put most people to sleep.

At any rate, my analyses show that the ACC is far and away the worst conference. The Big East and the Big 12 have good teams at the top; but they are otherwise bloody awful. The Pac 10 is over-rated. The Big 10 is a close second to the SEC.

Not accounting for match-up issues; I stand-by the fact that OSU and LSU are very closely matched and are a notch above the rest of the country.

But if USC ends up in the Rose Bowl, and is healthy; we may see a better match-up in the 'Grand-Daddy' than in the NC game.