• Follow us on Twitter @buckeyeplanet and @bp_recruiting, like us on Facebook! Enjoy a post or article, recommend it to others! BP is only as strong as its community, and we only promote by word of mouth, so share away!
  • Consider registering! Fewer and higher quality ads, no emails you don't want, access to all the forums, download game torrents, private messages, polls, Sportsbook, etc. Even if you just want to lurk, there are a lot of good reasons to register!

Official Statistical Analysis Thread

Jump to latest Follow Reply
Sort by date Sort by votes
Offense - Week 10

Offensive Stats for OSU and all D-IA opponents:

Team______________SO_____DSO_____TO______DTO_____RO________DRO_____PO______DPO_____PE______DPE
Ohio_St.________34.556__1.259__414.778__1.055__206.556____1.344__208.222__0.870__154.541__1.194
Akron___________19.333__0.702__309.111__0.786__127.111____0.741__182.000__0.820__111.749__0.875
Wash.___________28.556__1.299__386.889__1.110__192.778____1.619__194.111__0.846__110.643__0.944
N'west._________25.556__0.970__431.111__1.148__115.556____0.748__315.556__1.427__120.737__0.958
Minnesota_______27.111__1.089__418.556__1.122__171.333____1.143__247.222__1.109__120.567__0.980
Purdue__________32.000__1.220__407.889__1.073__133.778____0.861__274.111__1.220__123.290__0.978
Kent_St_________20.500__0.692__380.500__0.969__216.625____1.343__163.875__0.708__113.276__0.848
Mich_St_________32.600__1.320__427.400__1.192__210.900____1.378__216.500__1.053__129.526__1.073
Penn_St_________30.800__1.330__397.100__1.110__188.000____1.309__209.100__0.976__125.110__1.080
Wisc____________27.000__1.177__398.222__1.117__178.667____1.345__219.556__0.981__130.459__1.068
Illi____________28.333__1.149__415.444__1.076__259.556____1.808__155.889__0.643__114.144__0.912
Mich____________28.556__1.059__399.111__1.014__187.222____1.269__211.889__0.861__133.304__1.046


Numbers in red indicate the best among OSU opponents.


And:
SO = Scoring Offense
TO = Total Offense
DSO = Differential Scoring Offense
DTO = Differential Total Offense
RO = Rushing Offense
DRO = Differential Rushing Offense
PO = Passing Offense
DPO = Differential Passing Offense
PE = Passing Efficiency
DPE = Differential Passing Efficiency
​


Notes:​

  • While the best offenses (statistically) are behind the Buckeyes, Michigan is well ahead of the others if only conference games are included
  • Illinois is the best among OSU opponents at Rushing Offense and Differential Rushing Offense
  • Illinois is the worst among OSU opponents at Passing Offense and Differential Passing Offense
  • Illinois is the worst among conference opponents at Passing Efficiency and Differential Passing Efficiency
  • The last time OSU faced a team that was as one-dimensional as Illinois, it was the other Big 10 team from that state. Does anyone remember how that went?
 
Upvote 0
lvbuckeye;980515; said:
you missed my point, and you're argument is flawed. you're comparing the offenses of today with the POWERHOUSES of the 70's. how often did Northfreakingwestern crack 40 points in the '70s? four times. in 109 tries. that's 3.7% of the time. how many times have they cracked 40 in the last ten years? 19 (16.4%), and they've hit the 35 point mark 29 times (25%) in 116 tries... to say that everyone scored in bunches 35 years ago based on the performances of the elite teams is disingenuous...
Click to expand...

And to say everyone scores in bunches today is just as disingenuous. So what if Northwestern scores 40 points against mediocre defenses? We scheme and build our defense today around the offenses we face, just as we did 35 years ago. This is precisely why we can shut down spread offenses so consistently. Back in the '70s, we built defenses against the prevelent offenses of the time. You don't think that had there been spread offenses in the early '70s that Woody and his staff wouldn't have built defenses to counter it?

I didn't miss your point at all...I got it exactly. Your point is that you weren't around when those teams were playing, and so you go by errorneous assumptions and myth. Sure, today's game has more offenses that air the ball out compared to 30-40 years ago, but just as it took defenses about a decade or so to figure out how to stop the "unstoppable" wishbone, many of today's top defenses have figured out how to slow down, and in many cases shut down, the spread offenses.

Bottom line is any defense--in any era--that allows one fucking score in five games and one fucking TD in seven games is superior to even this year's unit.
 
Upvote 0
Defense - Week 10

Differential Defensive Stats for OSU and D-IA opponents:

Team_________SD______DSD______TD_______DTD______RD_______DRD______PD_______DPD______PE_______DPE
Ohio_St____10.111___0.344___226.222___0.543____62.778___0.341___163.444___0.702____93.709___0.757
Akron______30.111___1.202___398.444___1.112___188.556___1.366___209.889___0.953___138.884___1.090
Wash_______31.333___1.040___449.444___1.323___203.667___1.561___245.778___1.174___127.984___0.970
N'west_____33.667___1.273___425.222___1.126___164.556___1.028___260.667___1.197___144.599___1.150
Minne______39.000___1.447___544.444___1.408___210.444___1.380___334.000___1.427___152.248___1.226
Purdue_____24.000___0.856___393.000___1.021___149.000___0.926___244.000___1.090___110.887___0.866
Kent_St____32.750___1.222___395.875___1.032___162.750___1.096___233.125___0.992___149.713___1.175
Mich_St____26.000___1.067___334.400___0.923___126.900___0.910___207.500___0.931___133.129___1.092
Penn_St____17.600___0.691___301.200___0.843____90.600___0.565___210.600___1.069___113.755___0.929
Wisc_______21.556___0.809___334.111___0.858___150.889___0.871___183.222___0.848___114.102___0.915
Illi_______21.222___0.746___377.556___0.962___116.000___0.728___261.556___1.122___124.206___0.952
Mich_______17.556___0.598___313.556___0.778___132.000___0.743___181.556___0.806___101.477___0.819


Numbers in red are the best among OSU opponents.




And:
SD = Scoring Defense
TD = Total Defense
DSD = Differential Scoring Defense
DTD = Differential Total Defense
RD = Rushing Defense
DRD = Differential Rushing Defense
PD = Passing Defense
DPD = Differential Passing Defense
PE = Passing Efficiency (defense)
DPE = Differential Passing Efficiency (defense)
​

Notes:​

  • Ohio State is better than everyone on the schedule (and in most cases, everyone else too) in every category without exception
  • Like last week, Penn State has the best Total Defense, Rushing Defense and Differential Rushing Defense of any of our opponents
  • Like last week Michigan is the best defense on the schedule in every other category
  • By Differential Scoring Defense, the only defense we've played that is better than Illinois is Penn State
    • But...
    • Penn State is better at rush defense and much better at pass defense than Illinois
    • Ohio State could have put 40 on Penn State if they wanted to. And that was in Happy Valley at night.
  • Illinois' performance last week is no big deal. Aside from Washington's Differential Rush Defense, Minnesota is the worst defense on our schedule by a large margin.
  • Odd as it may seem, Michigan is putting up some very respectable passing defense numbers. They are playing with emotion now and it's showing on the field. Those who say that Michigan has not improved since the beginning of the year are demonstrably wrong.
 
Upvote 0
MililaniBuckeye;985009; said:
And to say everyone scores in bunches today is just as disingenuous. So what if Northwestern scores 40 points against mediocre defenses? We scheme and build our defense today around the offenses we face, just as we did 35 years ago. This is precisely why we can shut down spread offenses so consistently. Back in the '70s, we built defenses against the prevelent offenses of the time. You don't think that had there been spread offenses in the early '70s that Woody and his staff wouldn't have built defenses to counter it?

I didn't miss your point at all...I got it exactly. Your point is that you weren't around when those teams were playing, and so you go by errorneous assumptions and myth. Sure, today's game has more offenses that air the ball out compared to 30-40 years ago, but just as it took defenses about a decade or so to figure out how to stop the "unstoppable" wishbone, many of today's top defenses have figured out how to slow down, and in many cases shut down, the spread offenses.

Bottom line is any defense--in any era--that allows one fucking score in five games and one fucking TD in seven games is superior to even this year's unit.
Click to expand...

Great post.

Yeah, I don't think Woody would be sticking to his 5-2 defense in today's game. But just think about how good our back seven were all those years from 68 to 75? They would have been great against the spread if it had been around then.
Heck, the '70 team had 3 all americans in the secondary, and later teams had Colzie, Fox, etc.
Not to mention the LBs.
 
Upvote 0
DSC and DYC - Week 10

Name________________DSC_____DSC rk_______DYC_____DYC rk
Ohio St.___________3.655______1_________1.944______2
Oklahoma___________2.838______2_________1.592______4
LSU________________2.684______3_________2.032______1
West Virginia______2.595______4_________1.706______3
Kansas_____________2.514______5_________1.419_____12
Oregon_____________2.236______6_________1.443_____10
South Fla._________2.228______7_________1.520______8
Missouri___________2.152______8_________1.430_____11
Penn St.___________1.925______9_________1.317_____17
Auburn_____________1.923_____10_________1.309_____18
Florida____________1.893_____11_________1.334_____16
Arizona St.________1.880_____12_________1.299_____21
Connecticut________1.875_____13_________1.064_____49
Virginia Tech______1.788_____14_________1.143_____33
Michigan___________1.772_____15_________1.303_____19
Clemson____________1.760_____16_________1.530______7
USC-West___________1.717_____17_________1.536______6
Arkansas___________1.709_____18_________1.242_____26
Cincinnati_________1.673_____19_________1.074_____47
Texas______________1.660_____20_________1.362_____14
Alabama____________1.574_____21_________1.140_____35
Boise St.__________1.554_____22_________1.444______9
Illinois___________1.541_____23_________1.118_____39
Georgia____________1.486_____24_________1.081_____43
Kentucky___________1.472_____25_________1.245_____25
Wisconsin__________1.454_____26_________1.302_____20
Kansas St._________1.451_____27_________1.154_____31
Texas Tech_________1.446_____28_________1.375_____13
Purdue_____________1.425_____29_________1.051_____50
Oklahoma St._______1.385_____30_________1.202_____29
California_________1.377_____31_________1.159_____30
Rutgers____________1.356_____32_________1.335_____15
Florida St.________1.349_____33_________1.117_____40
Boston College_____1.329_____34_________1.254_____24
BYU________________1.316_____35_________1.556______5
Tennessee__________1.267_____36_________0.996_____58
Georgia Tech_______1.257_____37_________1.123_____36
TCU________________1.252_____38_________1.147_____32
Washington_________1.249_____39_________0.839_____86
USC-East___________1.248_____40_________1.076_____45
Texas A&M__________1.243_____41_________1.039_____52
Michigan St._______1.238_____42_________1.291_____23
Colorado___________1.235_____43_________1.141_____34
Louisville_________1.227_____44_________1.099_____42
Utah_______________1.200_____45_________1.036_____53
Air Force__________1.194_____46_________1.069_____48
Wake Forest________1.188_____47_________0.904_____72
UCF________________1.167_____48_________1.075_____46
Virginia___________1.114_____49_________0.947_____65
Houston____________1.098_____50_________1.291_____22
Hawaii_____________1.073_____51_________1.211_____28
Indiana____________1.067_____52_________0.920_____68
Oregon St._________1.033_____53_________1.232_____27
Fresno St._________1.021_____54_________0.684____110
Maryland___________1.011_____55_________0.901_____74
East Caro._________1.009_____56_________0.854_____83
Wyoming____________0.999_____57_________1.007_____56
Nebraska___________0.991_____58_________1.046_____51
Iowa_______________0.974_____59_________0.887_____80
Miami (Fla.)_______0.967_____60_________0.969_____62


Notes:
  • Where there is a big difference between DSC rank and DYC rank (e.g. BYU - 35/5), there is usually a corresponding Turnover Margin rank to explain it (e.g. BYU - 101st nationally in Turnover Margin)
  • Next Opponent, Illinois, is #23 in DSC
  • Fresno State #54 in DSC visits Hawaii #51 in DSC this week
  • Fresno State #110 in DYC - Hawaii #28 in DYC
  • Fresno's DSC/DYC difference is NOT due to turnover ratio: They are 108 in t.o.m. and are dead last in the country in interceptions with only 1 for the season. They are, however, 9th in punt returns and 3rd in kickoff returns.
  • Arkansas #18/#26 playing at Tennessee #36/#58 is a pick'em.
 
Upvote 0
NightmaresDad;985044; said:
Heck, the '70 team had 3 all americans in the secondary, and later teams had Colzie, Fox, etc.
Click to expand...

From what I've read, Fox was a great one. Glad they had him at safety instead of corner. :slappy:
 
Upvote 0
Those of you familiar with my work know about DSC and DYC...



Differential Scoring Composite (DSC) takes:
Differential Offense (amount you exceed your opponents' average defense)​
and divides it by...​
Differential Defense (amount you hold opponents below their average offense)​
...to create one number indicating the relative strength of the team with respect to scoring.​
Differential Yardage Composite (DYC) does the same for yardage.


Considering the importance of passing efficiency and rushing that was shown early on in this thread, I thought it would be interesting to come up with:

Differential Passing Efficiency Composite (DPEC)​
and​
Differential Rushing Composite (DRC)​
These two new composites do the same for pass efficiency and rushing respectively that DSC does for scoring.


Here are the top 30 in DRC:

Rank__Team____________________DRC
1.....Ohio St.................3.938
2.....LSU.....................3.652
3.....Oregon St...............3.016
4.....Oklahoma................3.001
5.....West Virginia...........2.713
6.....Oregon..................2.607
7.....Illinois................2.483
8.....Penn St.................2.317
9.....Texas...................2.168
10....Kansas..................2.080
11....Air Force...............2.043
12....Southern California.....1.968
13....Florida.................1.921
14....Auburn..................1.918
15....South Fla...............1.831
16....Georgia Tech............1.758
17....Arkansas................1.709
18....Michigan................1.708
19....Arizona St..............1.684
20....California..............1.668
21....Boston College..........1.660
22....Navy....................1.589
23....UCF.....................1.586
24....Texas A&M...............1.585
25....Wisconsin...............1.544
26....Oklahoma St.............1.523
27....Houston.................1.516
28.....Michigan St............1.515
29....Virginia Tech...........1.508
30....Cincinnati..............1.472

​
  • 6 Big 10 teams in the top 30...
  • Upcoming opponent Illinois is #7


and Here are the top 30 in DPEC:

Rank__Team____________________DPEC
1.....LSU.....................1.608
2.....Ohio St.................1.576
3.....Clemson.................1.480
4.....Oregon..................1.479
5.....Florida.................1.463
6.....South Fla...............1.446
7.....Oklahoma................1.433
8.....West Virginia...........1.431
9.....Arizona St..............1.418
10....Arkansas................1.395
11....Boise St................1.387
12....Missouri................1.385
13....Virginia Tech...........1.353
14....Kentucky................1.336
15....Rutgers.................1.329
16....Kansas..................1.321
17....Texas Tech..............1.313
18....Connecticut.............1.278
19....Michigan................1.277
20....Auburn..................1.263
21....Southern California.....1.243
22....BYU.....................1.228
23....Hawaii..................1.221
24....Boston College..........1.220
25....South Carolina..........1.215
26....TCU.....................1.177
27....Wisconsin...............1.168
28....Louisville..............1.167
29....Penn St.................1.162
30....North Carolina St.......1.160
​
  • Only 4 Big 10 teams in the top 30...
  • Next opponent Illinois is #66
 
Upvote 0
DaddyBigBucks;986103; said:
Here are the top 30 in DRC:

Rank__Team____________________DRC
1.....Ohio St.................3.938
2.....LSU.....................3.652
3.....Oregon St...............3.016
4.....Oklahoma................3.001
5.....West Virginia...........2.713
6.....Oregon..................2.607​
Click to expand...


Compare that with the current AP top 6 teams:

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Oregon
4. Oklahoma
5. Kansas
6. West Virginia

I'd say there's some merit in the DRC...​
 
Upvote 0
MililaniBuckeye;986130; said:
Compare that with the current AP top 6 teams:

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Oregon
4. Oklahoma
5. Kansas
6. West Virginia

I'd say there's some merit in the DRC...
Click to expand...

And when you consider that the teams in bold are also in the top 8 in DPEC, it stands to reason that the voters aren't realy as far out to lunch (at the top) as some would suggest.

Oregon State is 102 in DPEC. Sorry Beavers, ya gotta be good at both to do more than snag an upset here and there.
 
Upvote 0
You can bet that my updates to this thread will be later this week than most. It's hard to get motivated to crunch the numbers during Michigan Week (and aside from that I'm hellabusy). I'll only do it for historical purposes.
 
Upvote 0
Offensive Stats for OSU and all D-IA opponents:

Name___________SO______DSO______TO______DTO_________RO______DRO______PO______DPO______PE______DPE
Ohio_St._____33.200___1.240___406.90___1.047______203.90___1.380___203.00___0.842___148.58___1.155
Akron________22.200___0.789___320.10___0.800______132.10___0.731___188.00___0.857___115.27___0.894
Wash.________28.000___1.252___381.60___1.097______182.00___1.530___199.60___0.871___110.76___0.935
N'west.______26.100___0.961___433.60___1.132_______120.50___0.754___313.10___1.403___123.19___0.974
Minn.________26.000___1.049___408.20___1.103______166.70___1.113___241.50___1.097___118.49___0.962
Purdue_______31.900___1.222___418.80___1.123______137.70___0.904___281.10___1.274___123.68___0.970
Kent_St._____20.444___0.680___378.56___0.943______215.22___1.261___163.33___0.708___108.14___0.807
Mich_St._____34.000___1.348___426.36___1.166_______205.36___1.300___221.00___1.065___132.75___1.098
Penn_St._____30.818___1.273___403.00___1.114______189.27___1.267___213.73___1.007___128.12___1.086
Wisc.________28.000___1.252___406.10___1.148______184.00___1.369___222.10___1.013___130.93___1.096
Ill._________28.300___1.222___413.90___1.119______259.60___1.909___154.30___0.660___119.12___0.973
Mich.________27.800___1.046___391.20___1.015______173.20___1.168___218.00___0.919___128.85___1.022


Numbers in red indicate the best among OSU opponents.






And:
SO = Scoring Offense
TO = Total Offense
DSO = Differential Scoring Offense
DTO = Differential Total Offense
RO = Rushing Offense
DRO = Differential Rushing Offense
PO = Passing Offense
DPO = Differential Passing Offense
PE = Passing Efficiency
DPE = Differential Passing Efficiency
​


Notes:

  • Statistically, the wolverweenies have the worst offense we've faced since Kent State, and the worst conference offense (scoring-wise) that we've faced since Northwestern. Yardage-wise, they are statistically the worst non-MAC team we've faced all year.
  • Disregard the previous bullet - This is The Game
Purdue and Illinois have exactly the same DSO, yet the Buckeyes dominated the Boilers on the road and couldn't hang with the Illini offense at home.
​

Some might suggest it's a match-up problem. I believe we saw the effects of 4 straight power-running teams on a banged up defensive line. I think that we drew a bad schedule this year, what with getting all of the most physical teams in a row at the end of the year. I think the grind caught up with us.​
What concerns me is that we have now faced 5 straight power teams (yes, Illinois has power to go with the spread). The AVERAGE differential rushing offense we've faced in the past 5 weeks has been 1.379. That is SICK. Now we have to face our rival after that. I would feel better about it if our depth on the DL hadn't been thinned out by the grind.​
The national media gave all of the SEC teams a pass for their losses because of the SEC grind. I doubt any of them faced 5 teams in a row that were THAT physical.​
 
Last edited:
Upvote 0
Differential Defensive Stats for OSU and D-IA opponents:





Team_________SD_____DSD______TD______DTD_________RD______DRD______PD______DPD______PE______DPE
Ohio_St.___11.90___0.404___243.60___0.585_______82.50___0.434___161.10___0.710____98.77___0.802
Akron______30.80___1.243___394.50___1.111______181.70___1.321___212.80___0.978___137.45___1.102
Wash.______31.10___1.083___437.30___1.307______205.20___1.568___232.10___1.139___125.71___0.995
N'west.____33.10___1.234___412.50___1.099______157.50___1.004___255.00___1.167___144.38___1.148
Minn.______37.20___1.422___519.60___1.373______203.30___1.363___316.30___1.380___149.79___1.216
Purdue_____26.40___0.934___395.30___1.021______149.10___0.909___246.20___1.103___115.04___0.902
Kent_St.___32.11___1.221___408.56___1.089______170.78___1.158___237.78___1.044___151.02___1.216
Mich_St.___26.45___1.040___351.00___0.958______131.09___0.942___219.91___0.968___132.33___1.086
Penn_St.___16.00___0.641___295.82___0.835_______82.73___0.539___213.09___1.061___112.99___0.917
Wisc.______21.50___0.793___332.70___0.846______140.50___0.800___192.20___0.883___112.19___0.880
Ill._______21.20___0.736___373.40___0.950______122.40___0.757___251.00___1.084___121.92___0.918
Mich.______19.50___0.668___329.90___0.818______142.00___0.799___187.90___0.833___104.41___0.825


Numbers in red are the best among OSU opponents.

And:
SD = Scoring Defense
TD = Total Defense
DSD = Differential Scoring Defense
DTD = Differential Total Defense
RD = Rushing Defense
DRD = Differential Rushing Defense
PD = Passing Defense
DPD = Differential Passing Defense
PE = Passing Efficiency (defense)
DPE = Differential Passing Efficiency (defense)
​

Notes:
  • Ohio State is still the best defense in the league, statistically, in every category
  • In fact, the Buckeyes are still #1 NATIONALLY in Differential Scoring Defense (DSD) and Differential Total Defense (DTD).
  • Michigan has, surprisingly, the best pass defense we will have faced all year.
  • Average national rank in DSD for our first 7 D-IA opponents: 82.43
  • Average national rank in DSD for our last 4 opponents (including scUM): 17.00
    • The difficulty has gone up dramatically, but the offense had two of their best days against the 2 of the 3 best defenses they've faced.
 
Upvote 0
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top