Official 2008 Stanley Cup Playoffs Discussion Thread

[Brutus1]

Sure, the Pens PP unit is playing well, but PK and defense are the reason this team is playing for the Cup. They certainly don't have the defensive studs that the Wings do (except Gonchar), but to me, the most impressive part of their run is how well their forwards have played in their own zone.

Crosby, Hossa, Malkin, Malone and Staal have played unbelievable defense. There were many that complained this season about Staal's lack of scoring this year but he's shown in the playoffs what a great all around player he has become at such a young age. He's been great on faceoffs, his long reach get's him first to alot of pucks, he hits and plays very smart hockey.

I'm enjoying Hossa while he's here because his play in the playoffs has driven him out of Ray Shero's price range. I'm amazed at his all around game, too. IMO, he's been the Pens best defensive forward in the playoffs. I'll give him the edge over Staal because of his speed. He's going to be a nice addition to another team next year, maybe the Jackets can make a run at him.

The defense has played well in front of MAF. Fleury has done his part by limiting rebounds, a problem that he's had in the past, which he seemed to fix ever since he's been back from his ankle injury. He's helped his defense by moving the puck more, too.

Both teams have played well on the PK at over 87%. Both have also played well with the man advantage.

I've only watched the Wings a few time in the playoffs so I can't compare them to the Pens. I just know they're loaded with experience everywhere. I think that experience will be the difference in the long run. The Pens have played relaxed throughout the playoffs but I'm wondering how they'll play if they go down by a game.

I think all the games will be close with both teams playing great defense. The Pens' time is coming but I really don't think this is the year. Sure, the Pens can win, but I just think the Commies, with their experience, won't make any critical mistakes, while the young Pens may feel a little more pressure and make that one mistake. They need to win one of the first two games in Detroit. The Pens will win a Cup before they exit the Igloo but I really think this may be 1 year too early. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[jimotis4heisman]

so i cant be excited about the wings pk vs the pens pp?

staal is a young horse down the middle. that kid is evolving into a mancrushable two way player.

side note-it will be interesting to see the future of the pens with malkins future(contract) and some of the other young guns, staal, maf etc.

the pens are the team that have benefited from the lockout the most, theyve gone from a bankrupt franchise to scfinals. the draft lottery post lockout turned out to be huuuuge.

im suprised and happy with maf's play. i didnt think theyd be able to ride him this far. i love young net minders and carey price and maf are two of my favs

 

[daveeb]

I'm enjoying Hossa while he's here because his play in the playoffs has driven him out of Ray Shero's price range. I'm amazed at his all around game, too. IMO, he's been the Pens best defensive forward in the playoffs. I'll give him the edge over Staal because of his speed. He's going to be a nice addition to another team next year, maybe the Jackets can make a run at him.

Hossa isn't going to go to a team that will pay him a lot of money. He isn't going to go to a team that doesn't look like it will be a contender for years to come. He is going to go to a team where he will have a chance to win the Stanley Cup. Atlanta offered him the bank to stay. He refused. If money was really the key element, he would have stayed in Atlanta. He wants to win. Frankly, Hossa may rejoin the Penguins after this year. I'd say it is around a 50% chance.

For all of you about to cry "TAMPA BAY TAMPA BAY TAMPA BAY", keep in mind that that situation only failed because they signed the wrong players. You need to keep the stud goalie. Tampa Bay didn't keep Khabibulin. That is why they failed.

 

[jimotis4heisman]

possibly but the pens only have two players signed for 09/10 (the year after next) sid and whitney.

players udner contract after july 1
malkin 1 year rfa
sid through 12/13
skyora-1year ufa
staal-1 rfa
talbot 1 rfa
kennedy 1 rfa
minard 1 ufa

gonchar 2 years ufa
whitney 12/13
sydor 1 year ufa
scuderi 1 year ufa
letang 2 years rfa
gill 1 year ufa
goligski 1 rfa
sabourin 1 year ufa

by my guess thats 26.8m in commiteed salary for next year

maf is a rfa he will be tendered an offer if not signed by july 1
after next year you have malkin and staal who will be rfas both will be tendered heavy offers.

the question is can you afford sids 8.7m cap hit, maf (6m?) malkin (9+m) and have enough to add depth on the wings for these guys?

 

[Mike80]

Hossa isn't going to go to a team that will pay him a lot of money. He isn't going to go to a team that doesn't look like it will be a contender for years to come. He is going to go to a team where he will have a chance to win the Stanley Cup. Atlanta offered him the bank to stay. He refused. If money was really the key element, he would have stayed in Atlanta. He wants to win. Frankly, Hossa may rejoin the Penguins after this year. I'd say it is around a 50% chance.

If true, that situation screams Colorado and Detroit more than Pittsburgh and Detroit won't do it either. Toronto and the NYR will have the space too probably.

For all of you about to cry "TAMPA BAY TAMPA BAY TAMPA BAY", keep in mind that that situation only failed because they signed the wrong players. You need to keep the stud goalie. Tampa Bay didn't keep Khabibulin. That is why they failed.

Khabibulin isn't a stud. He has his hot streaks but he can't completely change the fate of a team like the truly elite goalies can.

 

[Mike80]

special teams analysis?

the wings pk killed the stars, flat out broke the back and any mo the stars could muster. pens have a lethal manpower unit. im excited to see those two units go at it...

It's all about the face-offs. If you win a faceoff cleanly you're going to clear the zone and relieve the pressure on the PK....Detroit won something stupid like 80% of the faceoffs on the PK.

The PP, as you know, is all about controlling the puck. If you are having to skate 200 feet to set up your offense it's going to be hard.

 

[jimotis4heisman]

It's all about the face-offs. If you win a faceoff cleanly you're going to clear the zone and relieve the pressure on the PK....Detroit won something stupid like 80% of the faceoffs on the PK.

The PP, as you know, is all about controlling the puck. If you are having to skate 200 feet to set up your offense it's going to be hard.

yup and staal is 52%, sid 49 and malkin 41.4 during the playoffss...

 

[Brutus1]

Gonchar's last year is 09/10. IMO, they 'build' around Sid(20), Whitney(25), MAF (23), Malkin (21)Staal (19), Letang (21) and possibly Malone (28).

09/10 Estimate

Sid 8.7M
Gonchar 5.0M
Whitney 4.0M
Letang .625M
Malkin 8.5M
MAF
Malone
Staal 14.5M (3 combined)

Total 8 for 41.325M 09/10 "projected" cap; 54M

The rest of the roster will be filled with youngsters from WBS, role players or Vets that want to play for a good team and are willing play for a lower salary.

I just don't see the room for Hossa, even if he took a lower salary around 6M/ yr. He'll be 30 next year, so if he were to sign a 5 yr contract, sometime during that contract, he'll start losing a step. Let another team take that chance. When you're paying so much to 7 young players, you can't make a mistake on a big contract.

 

[jimotis4heisman]

the actual 09/10 numbers are
sid 8.7m cap 9m
gonchar 5m cap 5.5m
whitney 4m cap 3.5m
letang .647 cap .625

maf is a rfa this year
next year you have
talbot rfa
kennedy rfa
staal rfa
malkin rfa

im not saying they cant do it but the talent they have and with the market and offer sheets can you see new school oilers?

 

[Brutus1]

New school Oilers? No.

Able to realistically keep Sid,Malkin, MAF, Staal, Whitney and Letang, and fill in with young no-name players with a few veterans mixed in? Absolutely.

Sid can play with almost anyone on his line and make them better players.

If I had to pick one player that may leave, I'd have to say Malone. Local boy or not, I think someone gives him a big offer. He'll have to make that decision himself. I don't see Shero offering him more than 4-4.5m per.

I expect Staal and Malkin to both sign extensions before their contracts run out.

 

[jimotis4heisman]

New school Oilers? No.

Able to realistically keep Sid,Malkin, MAF, Staal, Whitney and Letang, and fill in with young no-name players with a few veterans mixed in? Absolutely.

Sid can play with almost anyone on his line and make them better players.

If I had to pick one player that may leave, I'd have to say Malone. Local boy or not, I think someone gives him a big offer. He'll have to make that decision himself. I don't see Shero offering him more than 4-4.5m per.

I expect Staal and Malkin to both sign extensions before their contracts run out.

what kind of offers do you think malkin, maf, staal, and letang get as rfas? what do you think theyd sign for with the pens (years/ and total mills) and what is their market values?

sid is locked up through 12/13 which makes him 25 i believe.
whitney through 12/13 so hell be 30

if the pens dont end up like the gretz/coffey/messier oilers i think they end up like the nordiques circa sundin/lindros/owen nolan

give the pens credit
02-5 whitney
03-1 maf
04-2 malkin
05-1 crosby
06-2 staal

everyone of those guys is a key/clutch player for this stretch run

malones dad greg won two cups with the pens and played there before he was traded to the whalers then nordiques. he was CS for the pens till 06 now hes with the yotes. brother is in the rangers system.

 

[jimotis4heisman]

ill also toss this out there

OFFER COMPENSATION
$773,442 or below None
Over $773,442 to $1,171,882 Third-round choice
Over $1,171,882 to $2,343,765 Second-round choice
Over $2,343,765 to $3,515,647 First-round and third-round choice
Over $3,515,647 to $4,687,530 First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $4,687,530 to $5,859,412 Two first-round choices, one second- and one
third-round choice.
Over $5,859,412 and ABOVE Four first-round choices

you also cannot double dip on picks. so if you sign somebody for 6m you cannot sign anyone for more than $2,343,765 until the first round picks have been given up. you also cannot knowingly offer if you do not have picks in the draft (youve already traded them away etc) you cant use traded (acquired) picks as part of the offer sheet either.

 

[Brutus1]

Yea, with regard to Malone, maybe Phoenix makes him an offer.

I'm expecting the Pens to try to get extensions done with Malkin and Staal before they are actually rfa's. I'm not sure when they can approach them about extending, but I'm sure they'll try to do it like they did with Crosby.

They certainly would be worth much more on the open market, but I think a realistic number, for an extension would be around 8.5M for Malkin and 4.5 for Staal. Do you think I'm way off on those numbers, JO? The contract length for both is a question. Maybe 4yr 18M for Staal, making him an ufa when he's 25. I'm thinking Geno will be in Sid's neighborhood in money and length, say 5yr/43.5M. I could be way off on the numbers, but I think I'm fairly close. Sid took less for a reason and I think that reason was that so Shero could keep the core players.

I don't anticipate re-signing MAF to be a problem.

 

[Mike80]

I expect Staal and Malkin to both sign extensions before their contracts run out.

Malkin is going to break the bank with his next contract. There's no way Pittsburgh is keeping him....

 

[Brutus1]

give the pens credit
02-5 whitney
03-1 maf
04-2 malkin
05-1 crosby
06-2 staal

everyone of those guys is a key/clutch player for this stretch run

.

I can't give them too much credit. Sid, Geno and MAF were no brainers. Malkin was the consolation prize in the AO sweepstakes. He's turned out to be ok.

I'll give them credit on Staal, because after Johnson, there was no clear #2 and Staal was possibly considered the most raw of the next few prospects. Had Eric not scored 100 points the year before, I'm no so sure the Pens would have drafted Jordan. He's been amazing and has played well above expectations since he arrived at his first camp.


My bottom line thinking is that they spend the money building around the three centers. Every one of them are developing into great players on both ends of the ice.