Interesting to see the talk on the matchups. I've heard almost no commentary on it (because I haven't been watching ESPN all week).
My thoughts:
When LA has the ball:
The Celtics can guard anybody on LA, with one exception, but it's a glaring one - they don't have anybody than can stay with Kobe. Against the Spurs, sometimes LA would get Odom the ball up high and he could drive on whichever big was guarding him. That goes away with Garnett on him. I think that Garnett is the best outside defender among any big in the league, and he can control Odom. Perkins can muscle Gasol and hold him to respectable but not damaging numbers. Rondo is quicker than Fisher, who will be little more than a spot-up shooter on offense in this series. Pierce can limit Radmanovic as long as he stays on him, Radmanovic won't create his own shot very often. Among the starters, that leaves Ray Allen on Kobe. After watching Joe Johnson score almost at will on Allen in the opening round, Kobe should be salivating about being guarded by Ray Allen in the national spotlight.
I think that after Kobe goes off, they'll have to double Kobe constantly, and then the Lakers shooters should do the damage. If they switch Pierce to Kobe, which they'll have to try at some point, Pierce loses a lot on the offensive end, like he did against LeBron. They do have Posey off the bench, who is a solid defender and will surely spend some time on Kobe. But when he's on the floor it takes away from the Celtics offense - he can shoot the 3 a little, but doesn't add much else to the offense.
So the Lakers offense will be Kobe exploding if he's single-covered, the other guys hitting 3's and easy shots if he's always doubled. The key for LA is to recognize what the Celtics defense is doing and attack it correctly. The team only came together in midseason, but they've grown together in 3 rounds of the playoffs, and have beaten two good defensive teams in a row (Utah and the Spurs).
When Boston has the ball:
Both Gasol and Odom have the length to bother KG's shot, and they can take turns guarding him. The other guy just needs to pay attention to Perkins and keep him off the offensive glass. Fisher is stronger than Rondo, and I think quick enough to stay with him since he doesn't have to stay tight to stop his outside shot. When Rondo does get past him, he'll have trouble finishing inside against Gasol and Odom. Radmanovic is taller than Pierce, but Pierce will be able to score on him. Kobe can shut down Ray Allen if that's what they want him to do. I think they'll end up putting Kobe on Pierce a fair amount of the time, since Pierce will be the Celtics best option if anybody besides Kobe is guarding him. If Allen is guared by Radmanovic, he'll be able to drive on him some, but he'll also have trouble finishing inside against the length of Gasol and Odom.
Bench:
Farmar and Cassell - a wash, neither will do a whole lot.
Vujacic and Posey - offensive edge to Vujacic, defensive edge to Posey
Walton and P.J. Brown - both smart players that can hit the open shot
Turiaf and Powe/Davis - Turiaf will block some shots, the other guys will rebound better
Coaching:
A big advantage for L.A. I know Doc Rivers led the Celtics to the best record in the league, but I thought he was terrible in the Atlanta series, and not much better in the Detroit series (Flip Saunders was just as bad). When it comes to adjustments, Phil and his staff of assistants have all a ton of experience. I expect this to favor the Lakers significantly.
Prediction:
I believe that no team has ever closed out the NBA Finals by winning all 3 games in the middle of the 2-3-2 format, but I'm guessing that's what happens this year. A split in Boston, and the Lakers win in 5.
By the way, I hate the Lakers. I also hate the Celtics (I literally couldn't sleep in '87 after Bird's late steal beat the Pistons). That was before the Pistons had won anything, so of course I now hate them as well.
