The mighty Nittany owes em one.
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- Thread starter Buckeyeskickbuttocks
- Start date
Why does this feel like a game that could end up as SCum's inevitable choke game? PSU's D is still pretty good. JoePa might be able to rally them to a big win if he can stay on the sideline.
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scooter1369
HTTR Forever.
exhawg;628978; said:
I am on the fence on this one. You have a solid point about PSU's defense, but somehow, Carr always manages to pull a rabbit out of his ass in this game. Being in Happy Valley is the only reason why I'm leaning toward the Nits.
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daddyphatsacs
Let the cards fall...
exhawg;628978; said:
Agreed, I've been saying it all along........this will be the weekend that Michigan goes down. Happy Valley will be a zoo this weekend, and that PSU defense is the best that Michigan has faced so far this season. Their corners can cover Manningham, and I think that they'll shut down Hart.
I want Michigan to lose...... I hate to see them win :) I am really looking forward to this ballgame.
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scooter1369
HTTR Forever.
Folanator;629006; said:
Not yet, but I'll keep my ears open. If so, scUM is on trouble. Without MM, they will struggle.
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Mario killed them last year...Hart can still run, but I think Hunt will have some success too. Guess we'll find out now how good Henne is.
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Not so fast my friend. The only game that tsun has looked really impressive was against an overrated Irish team that nearly let John LLLLLLLL Smith beat it. If MM is indeed out, I look for some mistakes by Henne as he has a tendency to force things when he doesn't have a go-to reciever. Also without Manningham to stretch the D, they will be able to key in more on Hart. LLLLoyd is still running things, remember that. I think if the Nits can be a little opportunistic on defense and Morelli can limit his mistakes, PSU can pull this one off. Also, don't forget about the revenge factor for the one chink in their armor last year. I can see this something along the line of 20-17 Paterno.OregonBuckeye;629469; said:
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DSA
I did a Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA) of this game.
DSA is where you look at how each team performed against their opponents compared to how everyone else performed against those same teams.
Total Offense.........383.00 ypg........374.40 ypg
Diff. Total Offense..139.3%.............132.7%
Total Defense........250.50 ypg.........305.60 ypg
Diff. Total Defense...73.6%..............101.2%
Scoring Offense.......33.50 ppg..........23.60 ppg
Diff. score Offense..205.6%..............147.5%
Scoring Defense.......14.17 ppg...........23.80 ppg
Diff. score Defense...54.7%...............108.5%
If you're wondering why PSU's stats aren't the same in the table above as they are reported elsewhere: I recalculated all stats for all Div. IA teams after throwing out all games against Div. IAA opponents.
By combining one team's total/scoring offense with the other team's differential defense, you get one prediction for the outcome of the game.
Conversely, by combining one team's total/scoring defense with the other team's differential offense, you get another prediction for the outcome of the game.
So here is what DSA predicts for this game:
I did a Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA) of this game.
DSA is where you look at how each team performed against their opponents compared to how everyone else performed against those same teams.
e.g. If you opponent usually gives up 300 yards and you gain 400, then your differential total offense is 133%. If your opponent normally scores 30 points and you hold them to 24 points, your differential scoring defense is 80%. For more complete explanations, go to the Administrative Folder and look-up old game previews.
............................dUMb.................PSU....Total Offense.........383.00 ypg........374.40 ypg
Diff. Total Offense..139.3%.............132.7%
Total Defense........250.50 ypg.........305.60 ypg
Diff. Total Defense...73.6%..............101.2%
Scoring Offense.......33.50 ppg..........23.60 ppg
Diff. score Offense..205.6%..............147.5%
Scoring Defense.......14.17 ppg...........23.80 ppg
Diff. score Defense...54.7%...............108.5%
If you're wondering why PSU's stats aren't the same in the table above as they are reported elsewhere: I recalculated all stats for all Div. IA teams after throwing out all games against Div. IAA opponents.
By combining one team's total/scoring offense with the other team's differential defense, you get one prediction for the outcome of the game.
Conversely, by combining one team's total/scoring defense with the other team's differential offense, you get another prediction for the outcome of the game.
So here is what DSA predicts for this game:
dUMb: 387-426 yards........36-49 points
PSU: 276-332 yards.........13-21 points
Two big factors:PSU: 276-332 yards.........13-21 points
- How many points MM's absence is worth is certainly up for debate. I tend to agree with those who say it could be in the double digit range. Breaston is simply not in MM's class.
- The Happy Valley Home Field Advantage can be worth much more than your average HFA. This is another possible double-digit difference. Seriously, did you see the white-out?
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I think the game will be close but that TSUN has too much rushing defense and Morelli too little quarterbacking skill to make up for it. There is, of course, also the little issue about Penn State's loss last year. I think Penn State will cover the spread.
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