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Michigan 17, PENN STATE 10 (final)

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Penn State defense could be answer to Michigan

By Jeff Mason
Fri, Oct 13, 2006


The Penn State Nittany Lions came into the season with four new starters in the defensive backfield and a Butkus Award winner moving to a new position.
Few were surprised they stumbled out of the gate on the road against Notre Dame in just their second game of the season. The Fighting Irish scored at will in the first three quarters, blazing to a 34-3 lead before winning 41-17 as 8 ?-point favorites.
Penn State made another daunting road trip just two weeks later, this time to No. 1 Ohio State. Anyone who watched the game knows the Buckeyes? 28-6 win as 16 ?-point favorites was very misleading. Ohio State intercepted two Anthony Morelli passes in the final three minutes, returning both for touchdowns to vault the Buckeyes past the spread.
Those final three minutes hid an impressive defensive performance from the Nittany Lions. They held the Buckeyes offense to just 14 points and 253 total yards; both far and away the lowest outputs OSU has had all season.
Their defense is also responsible for the only two interceptions that OSU quarterback Troy Smith ? the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy through Week 6 ? has thrown.
Now Penn State is going up against its third ranked opponent this season when it hosts the undefeated Michigan Wolverines on Saturday night as 5-point underdogs.
Michigan opened favored by a touchdown, but sharp action has dropped that number down.
?Seems like the wise guys took +7 right away and rode it all the way down,? says Randy Stafford of BetCRIS.com. ?We?re not taking much Michigan money from the wise guys right now.?
Where the Penn State has really made its mark in the early part of the season is in its front seven. Armed with arguably the top linebacking corps in the nation, Penn State has held its five Division I-A opponents ? teams averaging a combined 134.7 rushing yards per game ? to just 85 yards per game on the ground. That includes just 68 yards last week against a Minnesota team that was averaging 203 rushing yards coming into the game.
?I think Penn State?s defense is playing good enough to compete with Michigan,? says Covers Expert Matt Fargo.
Star linebacker Paul Pozluszny has also had to overcome being moved from outside linebacker to middle linebacker at the start of the season. He originally felt the move would limit his ability to get to the ball as much he did in his junior season when he was named the nation?s top linebacker and made everyone?s All-America team.
Now he?s finally starting to feel comfortable in at his new position.
?It doesn?t seem like a big deal. But when you?re at the same position for three years, and all of a sudden, you get a completely different perspective of the game, that was difficult,? he said last week. ?This was definitely the most comfortable I?ve felt (against Northwestern in Week 5). I felt great the whole week of practice. Mentally, I finally got back, to where I felt we were before.?
He leads a defense that could have its toughest test yet against one of the most balanced attacks in the country. Michigan is averaging 195.7 yards a game on the ground and 187.3 in the air.
But as balanced as they are, the reason they can be so even is because no one can stop tailback Mike Hart.
?Their running game is probably as good as anybody in the country right now,? said head coach Joe Paterno, ?And Hart is one of the reasons. That offensive line is a great offensive line with big seniors. There are four seniors on it and they`re all 300-pounders. They?re a big-time football team.?
Fargo feels that stopping the run will be the key to cover. ?Stopping the run will be they key, if they can do that, they have a shot,? says Fargo. ?If not, it will be a very long night.?
 
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Seems like the wise guys took +7 right away and rode it all the way down, says Randy Stafford of BetCRIS.com. We're not taking much Michigan money from the wise guys right now.

That quote right there says a lot about this ballgame. Honestly, I really think Michigan will lose tonight in Happy Valley. All the elements seem to be lining up in PSU's favor, and Michigan will be one dimensional offensively tonight (run), which plays into PSU's strength defensively.

Not to rain on the #1 vs. #2 parade, but that dream will end tonight. Michigan is not as good as some think they are. They have one solid cornerback, a good defensive line, but they are still the oversized, physical, slow Michigan defense of the past. They will be exposed this evening in Beaver stadium.
 
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Really think Michigans offense is going to get exposed without Mario. He has made Henne look like a star. I can not believe there is more money on UM then PSU right now. You are getting a whole 7.5 points.
 
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daddyphatsacs;633259; said:
That quote right there says a lot about this ballgame. Honestly, I really think Michigan will lose tonight in Happy Valley. All the elements seem to be lining up in PSU's favor, and Michigan will be one dimensional offensively tonight (run), which plays into PSU's strength defensively.
Following the money tells you as much, if not more, about the collective confidence of the fanbase than the gameplans and chances of the respective squads. I'm not convinced you can draw firm conclusions about the likelihood of victory from the same. Now, I'm not saying this is now a stiffer challenge for TSUN, it is. Where I would disagree is on the assessment that this makes the weasels one dimensional. I personally feel that with Mario in TSUN was 3 dimensional on "O"," deep threat, running game and the short passing game (which also went to receivers other than Manningham, including their TE). So I would say that, unless TSUN can demonstrate a true deep threat to the reconfigured WR Corps, that they are at worst 2 dimensional. Stilted perhaps, but not totally predictable.

daddyphatsacs;633259; said:
Not to rain on the #1 vs. #2 parade, but that dream will end tonight. Michigan is not as good as some think they are. They have one solid cornerback, a good defensive line, but they are still the oversized, physical, slow Michigan defense of the past. They will be exposed this evening in Beaver stadium.
For that to happen the PSU D has to really step up in the defensive backfield, and generate a great rushing game - something which slow or not has been a difficult task for TSUN's opponents thus far. Those Lions may indeed win, but it will be interesting to see how TSUN does in stopping the run against an improved rushing attack, and whether the weasel O-line can continue to protect Henne as in games past.
 
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daddyphatsacs;633259; said:
That quote right there says a lot about this ballgame. Honestly, I really think Michigan will lose tonight in Happy Valley. All the elements seem to be lining up in PSU's favor, and Michigan will be one dimensional offensively tonight (run), which plays into PSU's strength defensively.

Not to rain on the #1 vs. #2 parade, but that dream will end tonight. Michigan is not as good as some think they are. They have one solid cornerback, a good defensive line, but they are still the oversized, physical, slow Michigan defense of the past. They will be exposed this evening in Beaver stadium.


I don't agree that PSU can now stop scUM's offense, but I can appreciate the arguement you are making. What I want to know, though, is do you think Morelli and Co. can do anything against scUM's defense? I don't. I still think scUM will win this game, just by less than what they would have otherwise...We shall see...
 
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Saw31;633428; said:
I don't agree that PSU can now stop scUM's offense, but I can appreciate the arguement you are making. What I want to know, though, is do you think Morelli and Co. can do anything against scUM's defense? I don't. I still think scUM will win this game, just by less than what they would have otherwise...We shall see...

That I couldn't tell ya, but from what I've seen of Morelli...he's grown with every ballgame. He's only been sacked 3 times in his last 3 games total, 2 of which came from our Buckeye squad. I'm not sure that he's going to have to have an out of body experience to beat Michigan, he just can't beat himself. If PSU gets an early lead, it will be very tough for Michigan to get out of that hole tonight. PSU has a pretty good defense, and excellent linebackers.

Sandgk; said:
I personally feel that with Mario in TSUN was 3 dimensional on "O"," deep threat, running game and the short passing game (which also went to receivers other than Manningham, including their TE). So I would say that, unless TSUN can demonstrate a true deep threat to the reconfigured WR Corps, that they are at worst 2 dimensional. Stilted perhaps, but not totally predictable.

Take that deep threat out, and it makes the other two dimensions that much harder to attain. PSU can stack guys up close, and play man coverage on the other Michigan WR's. If they stop Hart tonight, they'll probably win the ballgame.

FWIW, I'll come back on here and eat my crow if my predictions tonight are wrong. I've been chirping quite a bit about this game, it's just a gut feeling that I've had about it for a while.......which amplified with the loss of Manningham.
 
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At least if they're gonna have the piss bags, the could do JoPa the courtesy of bringing them to the stadium empty, that way he doesn't have to trot across the field in the middle of the game again.
 
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