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Iowa 24, Georgia Tech 14 (final) Orange Bowl

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jlb1705;1635407; said:
Not having to face Pryor? Nesbitt averages more rushing yards per game and has a higher pass efficiency rating (counting Rose Bowl stats, Pryor only has 14 more attempts on the season). Iowa had better plan for Nesbitt.
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You can bet they will plan for Nesbitt, but as homerish as this will sound, Pryor brings another dimension to the table. Yeah, Nesbitt's stats are better but Pryor is the more dangerous threat.
 
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You won't catch me disagreeing about Pryor. We saw on New Year's Day what he can do on third downs. That is killer and it doesn't necessarily show up in the stats.

I think this is not a good matchup for Iowa's defense for a couple reasons. Somebody has already mentioned it, but looking back at what Navy was able to do against OSU, I think it's going to give Iowa fits. They haven't seen that triple option offense this season, and with as few teams that run it now, I'm not convinced that you can adequately prepare for it without facing an opponent that runs it to near perfection. Also, the strength of Iowa's defense is really against the pass. They're ranked #4 in the nation in pass efficiency defense, and this matchup does not allow them to leverage their defense's greatest strength unless Paul Johnson loses his mind and lets Nesbitt start chucking it all over the place.
 
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jlb1705;1635423; said:
You won't catch me disagreeing about Pryor. We saw on New Year's Day what he can do on third downs. That is killer and it doesn't necessarily show up in the stats.

I think this is not a good matchup for Iowa's defense for a couple reasons. Somebody has already mentioned it, but looking back at what Navy was able to do against OSU, I think it's going to give Iowa fits. They haven't seen that triple option offense this season, and with as few teams that run it now, I'm not convinced that you can adequately prepare for it without facing an opponent that runs it to near perfection. Also, the strength of Iowa's defense is really against the pass. They're ranked #4 in the nation in pass efficiency defense, and this matchup does not allow them to leverage their defense's greatest strength unless Paul Johnson loses his mind and lets Nesbitt start chucking it all over the place.
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The difference in the OSU/Navy vs Iowa/GT comparison is that OSU was preparing for a month to play USC, not Navy, while Iowa has presumably been preparing for GT.

GT scored the following on the teams that play defense:

Miami, 17
NC, 24
VT, 28
Georgia, 24

Additionally, GT gave up 27 or more in 8 of their games this season.

I think with a month to prepare for just GT, and with a disciplined game and gameplan, Iowa can win and win soundly. They don't have chopped liver on their D-Line. In fact, as usual, it's one of their strengths. I think a lot of people are overestimating the quick-strike/big-play ability of GT. I watched them a lot this year (ACC plays a shit-ton of Thursday night games, don't they?) and GT is complete feast or famine. They play well in stretches, seemingly about one good 20-minute stretch per ball game. You just have to weather that storm. If Iowa controls the ball, the clock, and can score in the neighborhood of 27-31 points, which they can, I think Iowa will win.
 
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Dryden;1635448; said:
The difference in the OSU/Navy vs Iowa/GT comparison is that OSU was preparing for a month to play USC, not Navy, while Iowa has presumably been preparing for GT.
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Speaking of a month to prepare, I can't believe nobody's mentioned what LSU's defense did to GTech in their bowl game last year.
 
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BB73;1635454; said:
Speaking of a month to prepare, I can't believe nobody's mentioned what LSU's defense did to GTech in their bowl game last year.
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Bingo. 38-3 last year in the Peach Bowl. I think it was one of those conference-centric ESPN blogs where the ACC blogger mention Miami spent a large portion of this past off season learning to both run and stop the option, and Miami beat GT convincingly too.
 
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BTN just pointed this out:

The last Iowa win in a top tier bowl game (either Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, or Cotton, which used to be top tier), was January 1, 1959 in the Rose Bowl, 51 years ago.

Go Hawkeyes!
 
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