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- Thread starter DEBuckeye
- Start date
Is this next system moving up from Texas coming your way? Ohio is supposed to get ice/snow in some as-yet undetermined amount.
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Forecast for NW Ohio was just updated.........5-8 inches Tuesday night into Wed. with strong winds causing blowing and drifting. Here we go again.
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the 4 major models break down like this:
ECMWF/Canadian: Mostly snow for Columbus and areas north of I-70. Up to 10 inches for @BUCKYLE
GFS: Slightly warmer than the first two, with more sleet/freezing rain at the beginning and around 4-6 inches of snow for @BUCKYLE
NAM: Warmer still with mostly rain/freezing rain for @BUCKYLE and sleet/snow for people on the westside of Columbus and further west more snow.
the models are doing their usual wobble back and forth shit per run, so the next run will be warmer, showing less snow, then the run after that will be cooler showing more snow.
If I had to guess, we'll get mostly rain/ice on the east side and mostly sleet/snow on the westside of columbus with a serious mess in between along I-71 as always.
ECMWF/Canadian: Mostly snow for Columbus and areas north of I-70. Up to 10 inches for @BUCKYLE
GFS: Slightly warmer than the first two, with more sleet/freezing rain at the beginning and around 4-6 inches of snow for @BUCKYLE
NAM: Warmer still with mostly rain/freezing rain for @BUCKYLE and sleet/snow for people on the westside of Columbus and further west more snow.
the models are doing their usual wobble back and forth shit per run, so the next run will be warmer, showing less snow, then the run after that will be cooler showing more snow.
If I had to guess, we'll get mostly rain/ice on the east side and mostly sleet/snow on the westside of columbus with a serious mess in between along I-71 as always.
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Reading the Wilmington NWS page is a lesson in contrived logic and contradiction:
First they issue a Winter Storm Watch:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 413 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014 INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-031700- /O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0003.140204T2100Z-140205T1800Z/ WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY- LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH- LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY... KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY... BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA... SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA
413 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. *
TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. *
IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN AS WELL AS ON OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.
But this is their weather discussion page about 30 minutes ago:
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WE POSSIBLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH FRESH SNOWFALL LIKE THE SOUTHEAST AND LINGERING SNOW ON THE GROUND LIKE THE NORTHWEST. WILL GENERALLY HAVE LOWS IN THE TEENS BUT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM ACROSS THE NEW SNOW COVER IN THE SOUTH IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TONIGHT.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CMC ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST TRACK COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM AND 03Z SREF AND ARE THEREFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THEIR THERMAL FIELDS. BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MORE WESTWARD NAM ENDS UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY SO DO NOT WANT TO TOTALLY BITE OFF ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD SEE PCPN OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY BIG MESS OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR FA REMAINING PRIMARILY SNOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL BE BUFFERED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FA WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN...TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
THE SNOW THAT IS FALLING ACROSS THAT AREA THIS MORNING THOUGH COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED SO WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL SOME FREEZING RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW PROGRESS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PIVOT POINT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD OF FREEZING PCPN/ICING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CENTRAL FA AND SUPPOSE WE COULD APPROACH .25 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR FA. HOWEVER...FEEL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS IS TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE A WATCH BASED ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS. WILL THEREFORE...JUST ISSUE A WATCH FOR AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE WE SHOULD AT LEAST HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT MEETING WARNING CRITERIA FOR SNOW. THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE DEVELOPING CAA PATTERN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. &&
And then, to top it off, they have rain/snow throughout the forecast - it's like they aren't sure, but they're sure they aren't sure but to keep it seeming like they somewhat know they're sure, they'll put a weather watch up too make it seem.....
anywho.....it'll be 55 and rain. Or something.
First they issue a Winter Storm Watch:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 413 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014 INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-031700- /O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0003.140204T2100Z-140205T1800Z/ WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY- LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH- LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY... KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY... BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA... SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA
413 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. *
TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. *
IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN AS WELL AS ON OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.
But this is their weather discussion page about 30 minutes ago:
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WE POSSIBLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH FRESH SNOWFALL LIKE THE SOUTHEAST AND LINGERING SNOW ON THE GROUND LIKE THE NORTHWEST. WILL GENERALLY HAVE LOWS IN THE TEENS BUT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM ACROSS THE NEW SNOW COVER IN THE SOUTH IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TONIGHT.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND CMC ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST TRACK COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM AND 03Z SREF AND ARE THEREFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THEIR THERMAL FIELDS. BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MORE WESTWARD NAM ENDS UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY SO DO NOT WANT TO TOTALLY BITE OFF ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD SEE PCPN OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY BIG MESS OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR FA REMAINING PRIMARILY SNOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL BE BUFFERED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FA WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN...TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
THE SNOW THAT IS FALLING ACROSS THAT AREA THIS MORNING THOUGH COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED SO WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL SOME FREEZING RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW PROGRESS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PIVOT POINT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD OF FREEZING PCPN/ICING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CENTRAL FA AND SUPPOSE WE COULD APPROACH .25 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR FA. HOWEVER...FEEL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS IS TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE A WATCH BASED ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS. WILL THEREFORE...JUST ISSUE A WATCH FOR AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE WE SHOULD AT LEAST HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT MEETING WARNING CRITERIA FOR SNOW. THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE DEVELOPING CAA PATTERN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. &&
And then, to top it off, they have rain/snow throughout the forecast - it's like they aren't sure, but they're sure they aren't sure but to keep it seeming like they somewhat know they're sure, they'll put a weather watch up too make it seem.....
anywho.....it'll be 55 and rain. Or something.
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Bad for you but good for a very dry south west!
WolverineMike
Head Coach
I'm sick of snow days. Get these kids out of here for more than 1 day in a row!
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Everything came into alignment today and to my surprise, we're all going to get snow it seems.
http://scontent-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/t1/1555503_10151943833832759_313030520_n.png
If it ends up colder than currently predicted, we could see up to 15-18 inches. This model uses the 10:1 ratio which isn't valid is the air temps end up colder. If the ratio is closer to 20:1 we could see up to 20 inches of snow, but I think 12-14 is more likely in some places.
http://scontent-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/t1/1555503_10151943833832759_313030520_n.png
If it ends up colder than currently predicted, we could see up to 15-18 inches. This model uses the 10:1 ratio which isn't valid is the air temps end up colder. If the ratio is closer to 20:1 we could see up to 20 inches of snow, but I think 12-14 is more likely in some places.
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Was talking to a cabbie I know last night. He told me he used to have a friend who worked at Rickenbacker for the military who was a meteorologist. He said the guy told him that Columbus was the hardest place to accurately predict weather. We're located in just the right spot, and the right topography, so that we have too many variables impacting systems that move across here. Anyway, everybody around here, enjoy that coating of ice and-or sleet/rain/dusting-37 inches of snow.
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Fungo Squiggly
Mortal enemy of all things Bucky
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Brought a change of clothes and some bedding material to the office with me today. Come at me, Mother Nature.
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