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Heismanpundit.com

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Dryden

Dryden

Sober as Sarkisian
Staff member
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http://heismanpundit.com/

Don't know that I can necessarily disagree. Like everyone else, I am enamored with Ginn and stand up everytime he touches the ball, but realistically can he possibly get enough touches, and given that he's a sophomore ... does he really have a shot at the Heisman this year?

The Post-Spring Top 10 Candidates

Here's a snapshot list of who we think has the best shot of actually winning the Heisman this season. This is NOT the predicted order of the voting. We'll go into more detail on the issues surrounding these individuals later.

The Big 3

1. (tie) Reggie Bush of USC; Chris Leak of Florida: We kept going back and forth on these two and decided to split the difference. Bush occupies one of the great Heisman legacies--the position of USC tailback. However, he shares the spotlight with last year's Heisman winner, Matt Leinart. Leak has built a solid resume (very important in Heisman circles) and now has a great coach to put him in position to put up huge numbers. However, he will be captive to the fortunes of his team (despite our ranking them No. 2, the Gators are not a fait accompli to go undefeated).

3. Vince Young, Texas: He's a fourth-year junior quarterback on a traditional power that will be ranked in the top 10 most of the season. In other words, he's pretty well in tune with The Heismandments.

The Next Group

4. Reggie McNeal, Texas A&M: He's fairly well known and is coming off a good season. Like Leak, his Heisman fortunes will be wedded to his team's performance.

5. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma: The second Heismandment states that the winner of the Heisman must be a junior or senior. But, Peterson was the beneficiary of so much attention last season that he may be able to break through it. However, we have an inkling that it will be much tougher for him this season without Jason White.

6. Matt Leinart, USC: Like Peterson, he is going up against a Heismandment (No. 9) and is going to have a hard time breaking through. Like Jason White, he will earn a pat on the back on his way to a top 3 showing in the voting, but it's a longshot for him to win it. There are many reasons, among them the presence of Bush in his backfield, the possibility of his stats suffering due to sitting on the bench during blowouts and the distinct chance of a Leinart overdose on the part of the Heisman voters. The one thing that could push him through to another trophy is USC's run at a historic third-straight championship. If the Trojans get there, Leinart may get most of the credit.

7. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame: He is a junior quarterback playing for Notre Dame. Say no more. If he has a great year and leads the Irish back, he's a very strong candidate.

8. Drew Tate, Iowa: Can challenge using the same formula as 2002 Heisman runner up Brad Banks. Except unlike Banks at the same juncture, he's already a known name.

The Real Longshots

9. Maurice Drew, UCLA: This exciting back will likely have more all-purpose yards than Bush and will get a chance to upstage the Trojan tailback at season's end. Still, he's going to need the Bruins to have a dream season to really have a shot.

10. Lawrence Maroney, Minnesota: He could lead the nation in rushing, but it's next to impossible for a Golden Gopher to win the Heisman.

Who Won't Win It

This list of who won't win it is much easier to compile than the list of who will win.

We'll just stick with the trendy picks for now.

Ted Ginn, Michael Hart, Chad Henne--We love Ginn's all-around game, Hart is solid and Henne could be the front runner next season, but no dice. They are all just sophomores and you can't win the Heisman unless you are a junior, a senior, or (maybe) Adrian Peterson.

Actually, Michigan's best candidate may be junior Steve Breaston.

DeAngelo Williams, Omar Jacobs--There's no rule that a player from Memphis or Bowling Green can't win the Heisman. But there might as well be.

Special Categories (meaning, history may intrude so we must leave open the possibility):

Matt Leinart--Sorry, no more two-time winners. Unless this guy does it.

Adrian Peterson--Sophomores can't win it. Unless this guy does.

Looking at the landscape, there appears to be a dearth of legitimate Heisman candidates this season. Most likely, someone we least expect will emerge.
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AJHawkfan said:
Why is that a joke? If anyone from scUM were to win the Heisman, he would be my pick.
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Agreed. This year he will be the goto receiver in an offense that has traditionally made its QBs and star WRs All-Americans and draft picks (I'll leave their NFL resumes for the NFL forum ... but I don't think there's an argument for their levels of talent in college). Add Breaston's kick return duties to his receiving numbers and the fact that he will be healthy and he is set for a breakout year without being in the shadow Braylon Edwards.
 
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3. Vince Young, Texas: He's a fourth-year junior quarterback on a traditional power that will be ranked in the top 10 most of the season. In other words, he's pretty well in tune with The Heismandments.
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What he forgot to mention was "Unfortunately his campaign will fade early when he travels to the Shoe to take on the Buckeyes, the place where heisman candidates go to die".
 
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BuckeyeBill73 said:
Having Brady Quinn higher than Ted Ginn totally destroys this guy's credibility.
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Does it though? This list doesnt seem to be who he thinks should win but rather who he thinks has the best chance. Like it or not, being a qb at notre dame will always give you a shot. Ginn will be a serious continder next year but this year he can only be called a long shot due to the fact that he is a sophmore.
 
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High Lonesome said:
...Ginn will be a serious continder next year but this year he can only be called a long shot due to the fact that he is a sophmore.
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I tell you what...if Ginn has a whole season like the second half of last season, he will be one of the five finalists invited to NY for the ceremony.
 
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I believe the high number of freshmen that are contributing to teams will do away with the "you can only win if you're a jr. or sr." stuff pretty quickly.

Penn State (according to posts on their board) will be counting heavily on Derrick Williams to jump start their offense a la Ted Ginn.

I think the days of only jr.'s and sr.'s winning the Hypeman are about over.
 
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The logic of not giving it to a 'sophomore' was shown to be ridiculous a year and a half ago.

Voters that went for Jason White because he was a senior, and presumably having his last chance to win the award, saw him come back for a 6th year due to a medical redshirt. Larry Fitzgerald, the player some didn't vote for, thinking that since he was a sophomore he'd have another chance to win the award, got a ruling from the NFL that because he went to a prep school before his 2 years of college, he's eligible for the draft.

Hopefully the voters learned a lesson from that. But since most of them are sports reporters, I'm not counting on it.

High Lonesome said:
Does it though? This list doesnt seem to be who he thinks should win but rather who he thinks has the best chance. Like it or not, being a qb at notre dame will always give you a shot. Ginn will be a serious continder next year but this year he can only be called a long shot due to the fact that he is a sophmore.
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The ND quarterback is very visible, true, but the days of ND getting a lot of coverage while everyone else gets minimal exposure are long gone. Everybody gets to have their highlight video clips shown nationwide, and the award is discussed all year long, so most deserving candidates get known.

I know it's tough for defensive players, and virtually impossible for linemen to win, but the days of a 2-8 ND QB winning the award (Paul Hornung in '56) are long gone. QB's are now judged with too much importance on their won/loss record, so even a 9-2 QB at ND proabably wouldn't be a finalist. And I don't see ND losing less than 3 games this year, and Brady Quinn won't get serious consideration if ND loses 3 games.
 
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Good point Bill and I agree with Mili in that Ginn will be there for the presentation if he plays a whole year like the second half this past year. But no matter how much he does I don't think he'll get past the hard on these media voters have for all the other "great" players in the running here. I think if the voters do get past the jr. sr. thing, they will give it to a guy like Adrian Peterson before they'll give it to Ginn. Wrong? Probobly. But it's not like we're dealing with well informed people here. They watch ESPN too and when the dickheads on Sportscenter say Adrian Peterson is the next Jesus, they will listen and cast the vote. Let's face it, ESPN is not going to give props to OSU any time soon. Ginn would have to rush for 3000 yards and score 50 touchdowns right after he wipes Stuart Scott's ass.
 
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its all about the hype surrounding you. if ginn had a full year under his belt like he did the last half of last year then yes, i would say he was a front runner. or if he had a lot of hype prior to his freshman yr. ginn will get a lot of hiesman talk during tOSU games but that will be about as serious as it will get. one thing i have learned is that the guy who wins these awards is the guy who deserved it "last year". thats why aj hawk didn't have a shot at the butkus last year but has it all but locked this year. all he has to do is not fuck it up and he is a shoe in. hell, look at nuge. he was the best kicker in the league his junior year but didn't win the groza. but he certainly locked it for his senior year. while he was still clearly the best his senior year, he really didn't need to be. far to many times i have seen guys have monsterous junior years and win no award. then have a so-so senior year but win their positions highest award.

ive seen this happen in all walks of life. not that people aren't deserving. but in many cases the performance that supposedly earned them the award often times is eclipsed by something they did earlier in their career. i don't really see the hiesman as a "single season mark" award but rather "what have you done over your career". because it requires a phenominal season for you to be considered. once you have that consideration, you need a decent year to win.

Voters that went for Jason White because he was a senior, and presumably having his last chance to win the award, saw him come back for a 6th year due to a medical redshirt. Larry Fitzgerald, the player some didn't vote for, thinking that since he was a sophomore he'd have another chance to win the award, got a ruling from the NFL that because he went to a prep school before his 2 years of college, he's eligible for the draft.
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i completely dissagree. if anything it makes it more likely for them to vote for the guy who won't be coming back next year. remember, if you pick a guy in his last season he can't come back next year and cast doubt on your vote. if he can... you might look pretty stupid in a few months. what if fitzgerald passed on the nfl even though he was eligible and came back and completely bombed while jason white bypassed his extra year of eligibility and went into the nfl? now you look like an idiot for picking fitzgerald over white. 90% of all awards are popularity contests that are at best loosely based on performance.
 
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ohiostate=life said:
Good point Bill and I agree with Mili in that Ginn will be there for the presentation if he plays a whole year like the second half this past year. But no matter how much he does I don't think he'll get past the hard on these media voters have for all the other "great" players in the running here. I think if the voters do get past the jr. sr. thing, they will give it to a guy like Adrian Peterson before they'll give it to Ginn. Wrong? Probobly. But it's not like we're dealing with well informed people here. They watch ESPN too and when the dickheads on Sportscenter say Adrian Peterson is the next Jesus, they will listen and cast the vote. Let's face it, ESPN is not going to give props to OSU any time soon. Ginn would have to rush for 3000 yards and score 50 touchdowns right after he wipes Stuart Scott's ass.
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Haha, I don't think I could have said it better myself, but I'm going to respond with the glass-is-half-full outlook. I think Ginn has a good shot despite espn being dumb. Why? Well I see Leinart and Bush almost cancelling each other out this year. Peterson, well his offense lost its best lineman, wr, and qb. So I think teams will creep up and focus on him, and we'll see how he responds. Young and Tate will both lose points when they go to Columbus and meet mr. hawk. And Leak will lose a couple games during the season, which will render him moot. Those are the major contenders as I think about it right now.

Now to Ginn. I think if Ginn gets the announcers drooling like he had herbstreit, tirico?, and the other guy doing during the alamo bowl last year, and puts up the 2nd half-of-the-season stats people referred to earlier, all season, voters will be hard pressed to ignore him. I think if Charles Woodson and the College Football 2006 coverboy, can win the heisman, Ginn can--he's more dynamic than they were. (I wanna see a pic of Ginn 'shushing' the opponent's home crowd after a heisman defining td on college football 2015 or something, haha) I also think he has enough of a name at this point, because we've seen him on every heisman list out there--so people know about him.
 
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