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Game Thread Game Seven: Ohio State 41, Indiana 10 (final)

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heh, I think he'll keep up his annual tradition of scoring a TD vs. IU. Tress did try to get pittman in, who got stopped. The qb sneak on 2nd down was the right call.
 
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DBB's Weekly Statistical Breakdown

Comparing Ohio State against our next opponent based on:

  • Offensively - How many more/fewer yards and points do you hang on your opponents compared to the average yards and points that they give up
  • Defensively - How many more/fewer yards and points do you give up compared to your opponents' average production
INDIANA BREAKDOWN:

Indiana's Opponents:

Central Mich::Nicholls State::Kentucky::Wisconsin::Illinois::Iowa

**Something to note before I even get into the numbers. This type of analysis basically compares your team to the other teams that your opponents have played. Since Nicholls State is I-AA, there other opponents are all I-AA and this greatly improves Indiana's numbers. More on this later.**

These 6 teams taken together GIVE UP 393.31 yards and 26.65 points per game. Not really bad, but vastly skewed by Nicholls State's 267.6 ypg against I-AA competition.

Indiana averaged 410.67 yards and 29.0 points per game against them. Not bad, right?

Indiana's 6 opponents taken together GAIN 376.86 yards and 28.5 points per game. Iowa is the best offense they've faced, yardage wise.

Indiana gave up 367.33 yards and 25.0 points per game to these teams. Against bad offenses, that's not very good.

So Indiana's break down is...

INDIANA OFFENSE GAINS/SCORES
  • 17.36 yards more than opponents give up on average
  • 2.36 points more than opponents give up on average
INDIANA DEFENSE GIVES UP
  • 9.53 yards fewer than opponents gain on average
  • 3.50 points fewer than opponents score on average
.................................................. ..................................
now for the...

OSU BREAKDOWN:

OSU's Opponents:

Miami U::Texas::SDSU::Iowa::PSU::MSU

These 6 teams taken together GIVE UP 352.84 yards and 20.83 points per game. That's much better than the defenses Indiana has faced.

The Buckeyes averaged 359.67 yards and 26.5 points per game against them. As I said last week, even against good defenses, that's disappointing.

OSU's 6 opponents taken together GAIN 445.53 yards and 34.88 points per game. That is freakin' PHENOMENAL. It would be difficult to exaggerate how much better OSU's opponents have been on offense than have Indiana's.

Ohio State has given up only 274.5 yards and 15.33 points per game to these teams. Those numbers posted against that schedule, while saddled with a turn-over prone offense and special teams, are tremendous.

So the Buckeye break down is...

OSU OFFENSE GAINS/SCORES
  • 6.83 yards more than opponents give up on average
  • 5.67 points more than opponents give up on average
OSU DEFENSE GIVES UP
  • 171.03 yards fewer than opponents gain on average
  • 19.54 points fewer than opponents score on average
Yardage-wise, that's not as good as last week's numbers, which is to be expected after a 0-4 turnover game. Points-wise however, that's even better than last week, both offensively and defensively.


BREAKING DOWN THE MATCHUP


There are many ways of breaking these numbers down, but I'll examine three. The first way is to compare offense to offense and defense to defense. Here, OSU is vastly superior as only our offense is mediocre, while the Loosiers are mediocre on both sides of the ball.

In fact, against I-A competition, Indiana's offense has a point differential of practically zero and actually gains FEWER yards than their opponents typically give up.

Things get UGLY when you look at the other two ways of breaking the numbers down. Both of these methods are essentially an attempt to predict what each teams output in the head-head match-up is going to be.

The first of these is to compare each team's average offense to the other team's differential defense. The second breakdown compare's each team's average defense to the other team's differential offense.

Method 1: Take OSU's offensive output and subtract the amount that Indiana holds their opponents below their averages. Then do the same for Indiana's offense vs. OSU's defense and the result is the following:

OSU yards: 359.67 (avg O) - 9.53 (Indiana D) = 350.14 Yards
OSU points: 26.5 (avg score) - 3.5 (Indiana D) = 23 Points

Indiana yards: 410.67 - 171.03 = 239.64 yards
Indiana points: 29.0 - 19.54 = 9.46 points

Method 2: Take Indiana's defensive average and adds the amount that OSU gains beyond their opponents average defense. Then do the same for OSU's defense vs Indiana's offense and the result is the following:

OSU yards: 367.33 (Indiana D) + 6.83 (diff yards) = 374.16 Yards
OSU points: 25.0 (Indiana D) + 5.67 (diff pts) = 30.67 Points

Indiana yards: 274.5 + 17.36 = 291.86 yards
Indiana points: 15.33 + 2.36 = 17.69 points

UPSHOT:

Either way the statistical analysis, ignoring the difference in schedules, suggests that OSU is a 2 TD favorite.

This type of analysis REQUIRES that schedule be factored in though:
  1. The average offense that we faced is SO much better than Indiana, especially when you take Nicholls State out of the equation, that it is laughable to suggest that Indiana will score 17 points on the Buckeyes. That happens only if there are a slew of turnovers (possible) or a complete ass-waxing that has them scoring on our bench warmers. This second option seems unlikely, given the limited size of the travel squad. We won't be able to reach far enough into the bench to give up 17 points.
  2. Nicholls State scored 31 points on these guys. Iowa scored 38. Wisconsin scored 41. The only way they hold us to 30 is with a slew of turnovers. Again this is possible.
I'm being as objective as I can hear folks. I'm trying to look at this game without the Scarlet Glasses. But this looks like a sack-o-hammers beat-down to me.

Go Bucks!
 
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I think it's pretty obvious that Antonio Pittman has a shot at 200 yards in this game. That is, if he can get there before the 3rd quarter is over. I don't see us having huge passing numbers against this team. I think this is a game where we run the ball a lot, both with Smith and Pittman, and probably Wells too. Might even see Wells make a run at 100 yards rushing. I think Indiana will be able to get some passing yards on us, but that's about it.

After this week we will be back to being #1 in rushing defense, and we will will also greatly improve are rushing offense stats. The Buckeyes haven't had an "easy" game in a month...look for them to play hard...and enjoy beating up another team. This game will be a lot like the Miami, OH game I feel...except maybe a little bit higher scoring.
 
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i think indiana is improving through this season and hardy is a good receiver so i could see this being close for a while although im not really worried about us losing. i will give the indiana staff and players props for making the big 10 more competitive and not falling down and being the beatdown team like in the past. i wish them the best and good luck on a bowl bid.
 
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Indiana in the shoe is almost always a blow out, but they've been very tough at home. Remember the game that put us in the 97 Rose Bowl? Indiana outplayed us the entire way until Vrable or Luke Finkle stole the ball and rambled 50 some yards for a TD. At least its a "home game" for us in terms of the number of butts in the stands... a home game without TBDBITL.
 
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they weren't very tough in 2003. An anemic offense put up 600 yds, with Lydell Ross starring. They don't have a defense. Maybe, just maybe if OSU had lost last week and were really down on themselves, we could lose this game. But I think Teddy Ginn at QB could engineer some scoring drives against this team.
 
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i personally would like to see boeckman play qb. i would like to see ginn at qb as sort of a trick play of sorts.:biggrin: ginn wasnt too bad at glenville. i believe he went 60 something for 90 something in completed passes there so he cant be too bad.
 
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Jeffcat said:
i personally would like to see boeckman play qb. i would like to see ginn at qb as sort of a trick play of sorts.:biggrin: ginn wasnt too bad at glenville. i believe he went 60 something for 90 something in completed passes there so he cant be too bad.
Click to expand...

I like the way Michigan lines Breaston up with Henne out on the wing. I think they also did it on Saturday with a freshman receiver they like. Ends up being a QB run play but they got lots of yardage off of it Saturday and against us last year.
 
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