Crashing the partyStewart Mandel,
When undefeated Utah crashed the Fiesta Bowl in 2004, it was, quite literally, a once-in-a-decade phenomenon. Not only did the Utes become the first team from outside the six major conferences to earn an automatic BCS berth since the system's 1998 inception, but they also were the first so-called "mid-major" to play in one of the four major bowls since Louisville in the Fiesta 14 years earlier. The last ones before that came in the late '70s.
It's about to become a whole lot more common.
At the time of the Utes' appearance, a team from the Mountain West, WAC or a similar conference had to finish in the top six of the BCS standings to be guaranteed a berth, a task considered to be near impossible. However, facing the pressure of a congressional investigation and a possible antitrust lawsuit, university presidents from the six BCS conferences reached a compromise with their non-BCS counterparts to add a fifth BCS game and grant easier access to lower-profile programs beginning this season. Now the standard is top 12 rather than top six (limit one), or top 16 if such a team is rated higher than the lowest-ranked major-conference champion.
"The door's open a little more with a [fifth] ball game," said TCU coach Gary Patterson, whose 11-1 team last season would have qualified for a bid under the new standards. "It's still tough, though, because you have to do it with one loss or no losses.
Just the fact that a one-loss non-BCS team is being mentioned as a possibility shows how much wider the door has opened for such teams. Previously, an undefeated season was an absolute necessity, and even that wasn't enough to help the likes of Tulane (1998), Marshall ('99) and Boise State (2004).
If the current standards had been in place since the BCS' inception, however, non-BCS teams would have reached one of the games in six of the past eight seasons (see chart), including the Green Wave and the Thundering Herd. Three of those six teams had one loss. "It's certainly a more friendly formula than it was previously," said Utah coach Kyle Whittingham. "You might not have to run the entire table."
With the BCS' new five-bowl model in place for the next four seasons, one might reasonably expect to see a non-BCS team make it three of the four years -- and perhaps as soon as this season. Coaches of potential contenders agree that such a team will likely need to meet the following criteria:
• Start the season ranked or at least with some national name recognition.
• Beat at least one decent BCS-conference opponent.
• Finish no worse than 11-1 (and the loss would have to come fairly early).
"You've got to beat someone early [from a BCS conference]," said Fresno State coach Pat Hill, "and then you've got to sit back and hope the people in front of you get beat."
That's exactly what happened when Utah made its BCS run in 2004. Coming off a 10-2 season, the Utes began the season ranked 20th in the AP poll and immediately moved up three spots after routing Texas A&M on national television in their first game. As the season progressed, the Utes kept clobbering people (including Arizona and North Carolina), while major-conference teams inevitably lost at least a couple of games, and Utah's rating steadily rose. It reached the top 10 by mid-October.
TCU, a regular 10-win team for much of this decade, was coming off an uncharacteristic 5-6 campaign when it stunned Oklahoma in last year's season opener. The Frogs debuted at No. 22 in the poll -- then immediately fell back out after losing to SMU. TCU was on the radar, however, and by going undefeated the rest of the way it rose to No. 14 in the final BCS standings, which, due to ACC champion Florida State's No. 22 ranking, would have garnered a berth under the new rules.
Who will be this year's Utah or TCU? Quite possibly, Utah or TCU. Here's a look at the five mid-majors best suited for a BCS run in 2006.
1. Utah (Mountain West)
2005 record: 7-5 (beat Georgia Tech 38-10 in Emerald Bowl)
Returning starters: 15 (seven offense, eight defense)
Key games: Sept. 2 at UCLA, Sept. 30 vs. Boise State, Oct. 5 vs. TCU
The skinny: The Utes' lineup has almost completely changed from their Fiesta Bowl season (only two starters remain), but the roster is still loaded with talent. QB Brett Ratliff returns after leading Utah to season-ending wins over BYU and Georgia Tech. USC transfer Darryl Poston takes over at tailback, and All-America DB Eric Weddle anchors a solid defense. "Last year we only had eight returning starters," said Whittingham. "This year it's almost completely flip-flopped."
How it could happen: Utah has a chance to put itself on the map right off the bat if it can knock off the less-experienced Bruins. The season will likely swing on their rematch with TCU, which beat the Utes in overtime last season.
2. TCU (Mountain West)
2005 record: 11-1 (beat Iowa State 27-24 in Houston Bowl)
Returning starters: 10 (four offense, six defense)
Key games: Sept. 16 vs. Texas Tech, Sept. 28 vs. BYU, Oct. 5 at Utah
The skinny: The Horned Frogs should look much like they did last season, with a ball-control offense and a defense that led the nation in turnover margin. "Their speed and athleticism across the board is their strong suit," says Utah's Whittingham. Breakout QB Jeff Ballard returns alongside standout RBs Robert Merrill and Aaron Brown. Bookends Chase Ortiz and Tommy Blake help form one of the best defensive lines in the country.
How it could happen: Because of the Frogs' preseason standing (No. 22), they could probably afford to lose a game early, though beating Texas Tech would impress voters, and beating BYU and Utah will be essential to winning their league.
3. Boise State (WAC)
2005 record: 9-4 (lost to Boston College 27-21 in MPC Computers Bowl)
Returning starters: 18 (nine offense, nine defense)
Key games: Sept. 7 vs. Oregon State, Sept. 30 at Utah, Nov. 1 vs. Fresno State
The skinny: Not much is expected to change as former offensive coordinator Chris Peterson takes over for departed head coach Dan Hawkins. The Broncos, who went 36-3 from 2002 to '04, will still mix things up with unconventional formations and specialization on offense, and will play tough-nosed defense. The key will be whether senior QB Jared Zabransky can return to his sophomore-season form after struggling last season (16 interceptions).
How it could happen: The Broncos need to beat Pac-10 middling Oregon State if they hope to earn enough respect to reach the BCS. Getting Fresno State at home certainly helps. "They've got a schedule that gives them a chance to make a run," said Fresno State's Hill.
4. Fresno State (WAC)
2005 record: 8-5 (lost to Tulsa 31-24 in Liberty Bowl)
Returning starters: 16 (eight offense, eight defense)
Key games: Sept. 9 vs. Oregon, Oct. 21 at LSU, Nov. 1 at Boise State
The skinny: The Bulldogs showed how dangerous they can be by putting scares into both Oregon and USC last season, but also went into a funk at the end of the year. The bulk of that team is back, though much will be dependent on how well QB Tom Brandstater replaces four-year starter Paul Pinegar and whether an injury-plagued backfield can return to form.
How it could happen: Much like last year's USC game, Hill's take-on-all-comers approach has Fresno visiting LSU's Death Valley in the heart of the season. Because of the timing, the Bulldogs' BCS hopes likely hinge on beating both the Tigers and Boise State.
5. Northern Illinois (MAC)
2005 record: 7-5 (lost to Akron 31-30 in MAC championship game)
Returning starters: 13 (six offense, seven defense)
Key games: Sept. 2 at Ohio State, Oct. 28 at Iowa, Nov. 7 vs. Toledo
The skinny: The Huskies boast the nation's leading returning rusher, senior tailback Garrett Wolfe, who along with veteran QBs Phil Horvath and Dan Nicholson and standout LT Doug Free will form a highly dangerous offense. Wolfe, who averaged 175.6 yards per game last season, ran for 148 against Michigan, 245 against Northwestern and 270 in the MAC title game.
How it could happen: It's quite simple, really: NIU needs to knock off one of the Big Ten heavyweights, Ohio State or Iowa, and win all its conference games. "If we catch any of 'em sleeping," Huskies coach Joe Novak told the Associated Press, "you never know."
Five others to keep an eye on:
BYU (Mountain West), Central Florida (Conference USA), Tulsa (Conference USA), Nevada (WAC), Toledo (MAC).