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Florida 17, AUBURN 27 (final)

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Auburn?s limping defense gets linebacker back
By John Zenor, Associated Press
October 10, 2006
AUBURN, Ala. ? Tray Blackmon felt even more helpless than his fellow Auburn defenders in the last two games. The redshirt freshman linebacker, his six-game suspension now lifted, can try to give the 11th-ranked Tigers? beleaguered defense a hand Saturday against No. 2 Florida. Blackmon will play his first college game following the suspension for an underage-drinking arrest in May.
"Watching my guys out there going through some bad times, I kind of feel bad because I feel like I let them and myself down," Blackmon said. "I could be out there trying to make a difference. I said to myself that the way to take care of that is when I do come back, to make a difference."
The Tigers (5-1, 3-1 Southeastern Conference) could certainly use the help after back-to-back struggles. They couldn?t stop Syvelle Newton and South Carolina?s passing game, then allowed 279 yards rushing in a 27-10 loss to Arkansas.
Blackmon?s return prompts a shuffling in the linebacking corps. A projected starter before his suspension, the former Parade All-American is battling Merrill Johnson for the No. 1 job at weak-side linebacker after winning the job in the spring.
The team?s most experienced linebacker, Karibi Dede, will move from that spot to the middle, where Johnson has been starting.
The Tigers are hoping for a spark from the hard-hitting Blackmon, who forced 13 fumbles in his final two seasons at LaGrange (Ga.) High School.
"We?ve got some guys who can run around, but Tray has this knack of getting to the ball and being so explosive on his tackles," linebackers coach James Willis said. "He brings an added dimension to the ballgame, so I think that will help us out."
Blackmon was ordered to participate in a 90-day pretrial program following his arrest in LaGrange. Coach Tommy Tuberville suspended him and fellow linebacker Kevin Sears for an unspecified number of games for unrelated off-the-field incidents. Sears returned three weeks ago, while Blackmon waited.
The 6-foot, 210-pounder finally got the good news on Sunday.
"It made me feel good," Blackmon said. "I?ve been waiting for that call all season. I?m ready to contribute to the team."
The Tigers still rank sixth nationally in scoring defense, but have given up a combined 715 yards and 41 first downs the past two games. Dede thinks Blackmon can help change that.
"He?s a big-time hitter, which is big for momentum in a game," he said. "I?m just anxious to see him get out there and just clock somebody."
Blackmon didn?t publicly complained about the length of his suspension.
"When I came here, I gave all my trust to the coaches that they were going to do the right thing," he said. "I feel like if that?s how long it took, that?s how long it took."
But Blackmon likes the timing of his return, a chance to make his debut against the Gators? Chris Leak and a high-powered offense. How does it feel?
"I can?t explain with words," he said. "Football is what I do. That?s paying for my education. To not go out there and play is hard for me. I just want to make something happen."
 
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DSA

I did a Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA) of this game.


DSA is where you look at how each team performed against their opponents compared to how everyone else performed against those same teams.
e.g. If you opponent usually gives up 300 yards and you gain 400, then your differential total offense is 133%. If your opponent normally scores 30 points and you hold them to 24 points, your differential scoring defense is 80%. For more complete explanations, go to the Administrative Folder and look-up old game previews.​
............................Florida.............Auburn....
Total Offense.........413.33 ypg........331.33 ypg
Diff. Total Offense..163.7%.............127.1%
Total Defense........259.67 ypg.........276.50 ypg
Diff. Total Defense...82.6%................93.4%

Scoring Offense.......29.00 ppg..........25.50 ppg
Diff. score Offense..198.5%..............156.1%
Scoring Defense........9.50 ppg...........11.33 ppg
Diff. score Defense...39.3%................56.1%

By combining one team's total/scoring offense with the other team's differential defense, you get one prediction for the outcome of the game.

Conversely, by combining one team's total/scoring defense with the other team's differential offense, you get another prediction for the outcome of the game.


So here is what DSA predicts for this game:
Florida: 386-452 yards........16-22 points​

Auburn: 274-330 yards........10-15 points​
When you consider Auburn's homefield advantage, this one figures to be tight game.

It's still early to put any stock in these numbers, but I'll put some v$ on the Gators anyway. Real$$, not so much.
 
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DaddyBigBucks;630117; said:
I did a Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA) of this game.



DSA is where you look at how each team performed against their opponents compared to how everyone else performed against those same teams.
e.g. If you opponent usually gives up 300 yards and you gain 400, then your differential total offense is 133%. If your opponent normally scores 30 points and you hold them to 24 points, your differential scoring defense is 80%. For more complete explanations, go to the Administrative Folder and look-up old game previews.​
............................Florida.............Auburn....
Total Offense.........413.33 ypg........331.33 ypg
Diff. Total Offense..163.7%.............127.1%
Total Defense........259.67 ypg.........276.50 ypg
Diff. Total Defense...82.6%................93.4%

Scoring Offense.......29.00 ppg..........25.50 ppg
Diff. score Offense..198.5%..............156.1%
Scoring Defense........9.50 ppg...........11.33 ppg
Diff. score Defense...39.3%................56.1%

By combining one team's total/scoring offense with the other team's differential defense, you get one prediction for the outcome of the game.

Conversely, by combining one team's total/scoring defense with the other team's differential offense, you get another prediction for the outcome of the game.



So here is what DSA predicts for this game:
Florida: 386-452 yards........16-22 points​
Auburn: 274-330 yards........10-15 points​
When you consider Auburn's homefield advantage, this one figures to be tight game.

It's still early to put any stock in these numbers, but I'll put some v$ on the Gators anyway. Real$$, not so much.
Click to expand...

Here's some support for your analysis. The computers have Florida as a 2-9 point favorite, with the median at about 6 or 7.
 
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BostonGlobe

NATIONAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Auburn, Florida tilt loses steam

By Mark Blaudschun, Globe Staff | October 14, 2006

The early projections had the game being the first of a two-part series, with the most important episode being played in Atlanta in December to decide the championship of the Southeastern Conference, and perhaps more.
Auburn-Florida. Until last week, it was shaping up as a battle between two of the top five ranked teams in the country. Winner not taking all, but enough to establish itself as a prime contender for the national championship.
That changed when Arkansas derailed the Auburn Express with a 27-10 pounding at Auburn. And while Florida followed its part of the script by knocking off Louisiana State, the luster of today's meeting between the Gators and Tigers in Auburn, Ala., picked up a bit of tarnish.
Now it is a matter of survival for Auburn, which tumbled from No. 2 to No. 11 in the rankings, while it is another step in a tough stretch for current No. 2 Florida. LSU, Auburn, and Georgia. Not exactly a month at the beach for the Gators (6-0, 4-0) , who are the only remaining unbeaten team in the SEC.
``I just want us to go out and hopefully start playing to our potential," said Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville.
Other than a brutal battle in which Auburn outlasted LSU, Auburn's victories have been unimpressive. Last week's loss to Arkansas spoke volumes. And Tuberville doesn't know how his team will react.
``I've been there before and most of our players have lost a game or two since they've been here," he said. ``You have to get that game out of your mind. Put that behind you because you've got somebody else that's going to be gunning for you in six days."
Tonight, that will be Florida. Coach Urban Meyer is employing a two-man quarterback rotation (senior Chris Leak and freshman Tim Tebow) that is working -- for now. Meyer says his team will have no trouble focusing on what it must do.
``[My] players are smart," said Meyer. ``They've answered every challenge so far."
The Gators, whose last 6-0 start came en route to a national championship in 1996, know that beating Auburn (5-1, 3-1) will only get them to their next challenge -- against Georgia in two weeks.
And if they meet that challenge, they still cannot rest until they reach Atlanta in December, where they might just find themselves dealing with Auburn again.
Click to expand...
 
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If Auburn's gonna make such a big deal out of the War Eagle, then why is their nickname "Tigers"? If they're anything like Florida, their tiger mascot is actually a leopard anyway. At least they don't have a smellhound as their mascot, like 2/3 of the rest of the SEC does.
 
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