Game 2 of 3 for Florida - Note to Coach T - don't complain about getting shafted by te BCS months before you get shafted by the BCS.
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DaddyBigBucks;630117; said:I did a Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA) of this game.
DSA is where you look at how each team performed against their opponents compared to how everyone else performed against those same teams.e.g. If you opponent usually gives up 300 yards and you gain 400, then your differential total offense is 133%. If your opponent normally scores 30 points and you hold them to 24 points, your differential scoring defense is 80%. For more complete explanations, go to the Administrative Folder and look-up old game previews.............................Florida.............Auburn....
Total Offense.........413.33 ypg........331.33 ypg
Diff. Total Offense..163.7%.............127.1%
Total Defense........259.67 ypg.........276.50 ypg
Diff. Total Defense...82.6%................93.4%
Scoring Offense.......29.00 ppg..........25.50 ppg
Diff. score Offense..198.5%..............156.1%
Scoring Defense........9.50 ppg...........11.33 ppg
Diff. score Defense...39.3%................56.1%
By combining one team's total/scoring offense with the other team's differential defense, you get one prediction for the outcome of the game.
Conversely, by combining one team's total/scoring defense with the other team's differential offense, you get another prediction for the outcome of the game.
So here is what DSA predicts for this game:Florida: 386-452 yards........16-22 pointsAuburn: 274-330 yards........10-15 pointsWhen you consider Auburn's homefield advantage, this one figures to be tight game.
It's still early to put any stock in these numbers, but I'll put some v$ on the Gators anyway. Real$$, not so much.
NATIONAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Auburn, Florida tilt loses steam
By Mark Blaudschun, Globe Staff | October 14, 2006
The early projections had the game being the first of a two-part series, with the most important episode being played in Atlanta in December to decide the championship of the Southeastern Conference, and perhaps more.
Auburn-Florida. Until last week, it was shaping up as a battle between two of the top five ranked teams in the country. Winner not taking all, but enough to establish itself as a prime contender for the national championship.
That changed when Arkansas derailed the Auburn Express with a 27-10 pounding at Auburn. And while Florida followed its part of the script by knocking off Louisiana State, the luster of today's meeting between the Gators and Tigers in Auburn, Ala., picked up a bit of tarnish.
Now it is a matter of survival for Auburn, which tumbled from No. 2 to No. 11 in the rankings, while it is another step in a tough stretch for current No. 2 Florida. LSU, Auburn, and Georgia. Not exactly a month at the beach for the Gators (6-0, 4-0) , who are the only remaining unbeaten team in the SEC.
``I just want us to go out and hopefully start playing to our potential," said Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville.
Other than a brutal battle in which Auburn outlasted LSU, Auburn's victories have been unimpressive. Last week's loss to Arkansas spoke volumes. And Tuberville doesn't know how his team will react.
``I've been there before and most of our players have lost a game or two since they've been here," he said. ``You have to get that game out of your mind. Put that behind you because you've got somebody else that's going to be gunning for you in six days."
Tonight, that will be Florida. Coach Urban Meyer is employing a two-man quarterback rotation (senior Chris Leak and freshman Tim Tebow) that is working -- for now. Meyer says his team will have no trouble focusing on what it must do.
``[My] players are smart," said Meyer. ``They've answered every challenge so far."
The Gators, whose last 6-0 start came en route to a national championship in 1996, know that beating Auburn (5-1, 3-1) will only get them to their next challenge -- against Georgia in two weeks.
And if they meet that challenge, they still cannot rest until they reach Atlanta in December, where they might just find themselves dealing with Auburn again.