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Do 5-stars pan out?

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jwinslow

jwinslow

A MAN OF BETRAYED JUSTICE
Staff member
Tourney Pick'em Champ
Wanted to take a quick glance at how 5-stars have panned out at various programs:

Scout.com 5-stars from 02-09 (not including jucos):

11 boom, 05 bust - 69% - OSU
09 boom, 05 bust - 64% - UM
22 boom, 10 bust - 69% - USC
20 boom, 06 bust - 77% - UF
08 boom, 04 bust - 67% - ND
04 boom, 03 bust - 57% - PSU
------------------------------
74 boom, 33 bust - 69% - overall
Ohio State - 11 boom, 5 bust

Great: Clarett, Whitner, Ginn, Beanie, Pryor*
Good: Boone, Worthington, Kudla, Shugarts, Brewster, Posey
----------------------------------
Bust: Smith, O'Neal, Adams**
Attrition: Clifford, D'Andrea
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Too early: Bell RS, Fellows RS, Sabino (2010 determines his value)

* - Pryor isn't 'great' yet, but he's a cut above the 'pretty good' guys like Boone, Worthington, Warren, etc.
** - 2 yrs to turn it around, but needs to hurry
Click to expand...
Michigan - 10 boom, 04 bust

Great: Mallett, Graham, Boren, Mario, Henne, Woodley
Good: Warren, Schilling, Watson, Burgess
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Bust: Mouton, Paul
Attrition: BooBoo, Slocum
Click to expand...
Southern Cal - 22 boom, 10 bust
Great: Bing, Smith, Rivers, Davis, Cushing, Maualuga, Sanchez, Mays, McKnight
Good: Justice, Booty, Jackson, Poole, Byers, Turner, Stafon, O'Dowd, Griffen, Galippo, Johnson, Tyron, Gable*
------------------------------
Bust: Wright, Spicer, Brown, Ausberry, Bradford*
Attrition: Lewis, Hazelton, Tatum, Perez, Corp
------------------------------
Too Early: Tyler, Jones, Coleman, Harris, Ayles, Shoemate, Kalil, Barkley, McDonald, Kennard

* - I split these two because they were good players buried on an incredibly deep depth chart. I don't think they were scouted wrong, there was at least 1 good player between the two of them, if not two.
Click to expand...
Notre Dame - 8 boom, 4 bust

Great: Clausen, Floyd
Good: McKnight, Landri, Aldridge, Young, Rudolph, Te'O
------------------------------
Bust:
Attrition: Reuland,
------------------------------
Too Early: Crist, Johnson, Watt

p.s. Zbikowski was ND's top ranked player in 03.
Click to expand...
Florida - 20 boom, 06 bust
Great: Harvey, Nelson, Tebow, Spikes, Harvin, Hernandez, Wright, Dunlap,
Good: Fason, Caldwell, Leak, Jackson, Everett, Johnson, Thompson, Rainey, Trattou, Hill, Patchan, Nixon
-----------------------------------
Bust: Edwards
Attrition: Dickey, Atkins, Fayson, Hornsby, Brown
-----------------------------------
Too Early: Wilson, Davis, Wilson, Hunter, Jenkins, Brown, DeBose
Click to expand...
Great:
Good:
-----------------------------------
Bust:
Attrition:
-----------------------------------
Too Early:
Click to expand...
Great:
Good:
-----------------------------------
Bust:
Attrition:
-----------------------------------
Too Early:
Click to expand...
Not a large enough sample size imo:
Penn State - 04 boom, 03 bust
Great: Connor, Williams, King,
Good: Morelli,
-----------------------------------
Bust: Harrison,
Attrition: Logan-El, Bell
-----------------------------------
Too Early: Shrive
Click to expand...
Feel free to post up threads or links on this subject, like this:
http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum/2005-football-recruiting/612887-2005-5-stars-booms-busts.html
 
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Comments on this list

- 5-stars pan out much more often than 4-stars, 4's slightly more often than 3's. I didn't show the latter yet but a quick glance at the 4-star & 3-star lists makes it pretty obvious.

- There is enough uncertaintly, particularly with attrition & work ethic, that on an individual basis, no one should get too hung up on stars. They are better as a big-picture measuring stick.

- Greatness isn't exclusive to 5-stars, merely the probability of it. Penn State has been a very good team without many true stars, especially on defense.

- As you'll see in a later data set, there are a lot of good players in the lower star categories. They just have a lot more benchwarmers amongst them.


And no, this wasn't done in response to the trepidation over the 2010 OSU class. I think it's a good not great class with a potentially great 2011 class coming behind it (1 lesser class with 3 epic ones is a pretty good run). I merely wanted a set of data to use for those who want to pretend stars don't matter whatsoever.
 
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A few of the youngsters are 'good' for now, and could end up great. I don't think two 600 yd 5 td seasons for Rainey is enough to put him in the 'great' category though. We'll see how he does without their lead fullback running the show.
 
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Great thread. Just for comparison sake, here's the 4, 3, and 2 star prospects from 2002-2008. I had a lot of trouble deciding between Boom and Bust for a lot of these players, particularly the 4-stars. Obviously a one star can't really be a bust, but I tried to evaluate it based on what I would expect out of a 5 star for all categories.
4 Stars - 31 Booms, 25 Busts

Great: B. Carpenter, T, Smith, S. Holmes, Q. Pitcock, A. Gonzalez, R. Homan, K. Coleman, C. Heyward, N. Mangold
Good: B. Mitchell, T. Schafer, N. Salley, S. White Jr., D. Patterson, R. Nicol, M. Freeman, B. Person, L. Wilson, J. Cordle, B. Hartline, J. Ballard, T. Gibson, T. Moeller, B. Rolle, B. Saine, D. Torrence, J. Hines, D. Herron, D. Sanzenbacher, N. Williams, T. Everett
----------------------------------
Bust: R. Hall, J. Zwick, R.J. Coleman, M. Frost, K. Mitchum, T. Denlinger, M. Wells, A. Amos, R. Rose, R. Small
Attrition: E.J. Underwood, L. Irizarry, D. Hiley, B. Maupin, C. Hoobler, Sirjo Welch, A. Dukes, R. Schoenhoft, F. Lenix, M. Johnson, A. Henton, J. Scott, T. Washington, L. Thomas, W. Mobley
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Too early: N. Oliver, J. Stoneburner, G. Goebel, A. Sweat, K. Wells
Click to expand...
3 Stars - 22 Booms, 17 Busts
Great: A.J. Hawk, A. Pittman, V. Gholston, M. Jenkins, J. Laurinaitis
Good: Joel Penton, R. Sims, D. Datish, A. Youboty, T. Boeckman, K. Barton, A.J. Trapasso, N. Abdallah, S. Rehring, A. Russell, A. Spitler, D. Washington, D. Larimore, B. Browning, A. Miller, O. Johnson, J. Richardson
----------------------------------
Bust: R. Smith, S. Lane, N. Patterson, E. Blankenship
Attrition: Ira Guilford, S. Cotton, C. Lukens, D. Jordan, B. Underwood, D. Lyons, E. Haw, A. Barrow, J. Skinner, R. Williams, W. Dublin, A. Olson, S. Rowell
-------------------------------------
Too early: S. Thomas, D. Evege, B. Buchanan, T. Howard, N. DiLillo, Z. Dominicone
Click to expand...
2 Stars - 4 Booms, 6 Busts
Great: B. Robiskie
Good: T.J. Downing, D. Johnson, C. Chekwa
----------------------------------
Bust: B. Smith, C. Terry, G. Schwartz, A. Gant
Attrition: D. Kennedy, R. Pentello
-------------------------------------
Too early: J. Bauserman, J. Martin
Click to expand...
1 Star - 1 Boom, 1 Bust
Good: A. Pettrey
----------------------------------
Bust: M. Roberts
Click to expand...
 
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mross34;1652529; said:
Great thread. Just for comparison sake, here's the 4, 3, and 2 star prospects from 2002-2008. I had a lot of trouble deciding between Boom and Bust for a lot of these players, particularly the 4-stars. Obviously a one star can't really be a bust, but I tried to evaluate it based on what I would expect out of a 5 star for all categories.
Click to expand...

Mangold was not a 1*. He was highly rated and heavily recruited, and a 4* on Rivals. Scout didn't get around to ranking him, and left him a 1*. Same with Richardson. He was a 3* on Rivals.
 
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This is really good stuff. What I think would be even more fascinating (although I don't have the time, and probably not enough insider knowledge to do the work and certainly don't expect anyone else to do it) would be to see how the kids who appeared to be in the staff's first tier of choices panned out relative to next tier guys. E.g., being the bridesmaid for Percy Harvin and Mark Sanchez was obviously a pretty big deal but I'm pretty sure I wouldn't take whoever OSU missed on before "settling" for Cameron Heyward over Heyward.
 
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WoodyWorshiper;1652694; said:
Great thread. Just proves how inexact the recruiting science truly is.

As a diehard Buckeye fan, I'll take a "chop-licking" true "Buckeye" kid ranked a 3*** or 2** over a wanderer with a "5***** tag" any day of the week.:oh:

Peace
Click to expand...
I dunno man, nearly 70% boom for 5 stars looks pretty darn accurate to me, given the subjective nature of recruiting.
 
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