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Did my own ranking system... need tweaks

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Buckeyeskickbuttocks

Buckeyeskickbuttocks

Z --> Z^2 + c
Staff member
OK, with the various conference championship games and bowl season coming up, and all the discussion about who deserves what, I thought I'd see if I could come up with a formulation for ranking teams. Below is what I finally settled on, but I'm sure you guys can help me tweak it if needed. I do not pretend that the assumptions I made (which I'll list in a second) are the "right" one, nor do I think that what I've come up with settles any particular issue... For what it's worth, however, I think it's interesting... and at least very near the top, and very near the bottom accurate.... Now then, the assumptions:

I went to the NCAA site and retrieved every team's SOS.

Also from the NCAA site, I obtained stat rankings for 27 different categories.
I won't list each now, but I took data from all three phases of the game, Offense, Defense and Special Teams. Ranked teams in order from best to worst in each.
​
From there, I added up the total of their ranks and then divided by 27 to get their average rank per category and called the results "stat points."

I then weighted these stat points as against each team's SOS.
To weight them, what I did is this - the team with the #1 SOS, I arbitrarily determined that that team should get the full benefit of their stat points, and each team in succession thereafter would only get the benefit of some percentage of their points according to SOS rank. I had to come up with a multiplier, and after attempting several, I arbitrarily settled on .0085 (Doing so kept the range between 1 and 2 (actually, 2.003) so that the No1 SOS team was 1.0000, No.2 was 1.0085, No. 3 was 1.017 and so on...)
​
Next, I took each team's wins and weighted them as well as against the SOS..
Thus 11 wins v. the #1 schedule (Oklahoma) is more impressive than 12 against the number 112 schedule (Ball State) I arbitrarily used the same multiplier mentioned above (.0085)
​
I then likewise weighted losses.

Adding adjusted stat points to adjusted wins, and then subtracting adjusted losses revealed the following (Next Post):
 
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Rk..Team................SOS...W...L...Total Score
1...Florida...............3..11...1.......104.704
2...Oklahoma..............1..11...1.......100.481
3...Texas.................6..11...1........90.085
4...Ohio St..............11..10...2........85.592
5...Florida St............4...8...4........78.604
6...Georgia...............2...9...3........78.467
7...Texas Tech...........16..11...1........77.118
8...TCU..................44..10...2........77.066
9...Oregon St............19...8...4........73.606
10..Mississippi..........26...8...4........69.163
11..Penn St..............68..11...1........68.894
12..Utah.................63..12...0........65.658
13..Georgia Tech.........24...9...3........64.942
14..Boston College.......31...9...3........64.938
15..Boise St.............72..12...0........64.119
16..Kansas................7...7...5........62.723
17..Southern California..71..10...1........62.355
18..Alabama..............68..12...0........62.268
19..Oklahoma St..........32...9...3........61.871
20..North Carolina.......27...8...4........61.243
21..Air Force............35...8...4........61.103
22..Pittsburgh...........18...8...3........59.573
23..Rutgers..............21...6...5........58.949
24..Missouri.............44...9...3........58.658
25..Virginia Tech........23...8...4........58.343
26..Clemson..............12...7...5........58.107
27..Iowa.................52...8...4........54.647
28..Nebraska.............38...8...4........53.629
29..Ball St.............112..12...0........52.826
30..Michigan St..........34...9...3........52.820
31..Cincinnati...........53..10...2........52.312
32..Purdue................9...4...8........51.381
33..Illinois.............13...5...7........50.934
34..Connecticut..........55...7...4........49.199
35..West Virginia........55...7...4........46.297
36..LSU..................47...7...5........46.138
37..Virginia.............10...5...7........45.792
38..Nevada...............47...7...5........45.164
39..Kentucky.............43...6...6........44.671
40..California...........67...7...4........44.578
41..Wisconsin............41...7...5........44.544
42..South Carolina.......37...7...5........44.516
43..Baylor...............14...4...8........43.712
44..Navy.................68...7...4........43.519
45..North Carolina St....17...6...6........42.708
46..Miami (Fla.).........39...7...5........42.236
47..BYU..................94..10...2........41.161
48..Troy................101...7...4........40.608
49..Arkansas..............5...5...7........40.473
50..South Fla............62...7...4........40.414
51..Oregon...............77...9...3........39.727
52..Maryland.............36...7...5........39.013
53..Duke.................25...4...8........38.787
54..Western Mich.........86...9...3........38.675
55..New Mexico...........42...4...8........38.540
56..Tulsa...............119..10...2........38.319
57..Buffalo..............61...7...5........38.317
58..Arkansas St..........92...6...5........37.348
59..Wake Forest..........58...7...5........37.311
60..Vanderbilt...........65...6...6........36.097
61..Auburn...............44...5...7........36.080
62..Colorado St..........29...6...6........35.862
63..Minnesota............79...7...5........35.559
64..Northwestern........109...9...3........34.759
65..Marshall.............22...4...8........34.696
66..Northern Ill.........87...6...6........34.332
67..Tennessee............59...5...7........33.730
68..Arizona.............113...6...5........33.102
69..Rice................106...9...3........33.013
70..Louisville...........51...5...6........32.672
71..Hawaii...............54...7...5........31.814
72..East Carolina.......110...8...4........31.032
73..Central Mich.........84...8...4........30.443
74..Arizona St...........74...5...6........30.320
75..Stanford.............65...5...7........30.285
76..Southern Miss........95...6...6........29.475
77..Houston..............81...7...5........28.461
78..Michigan.............28...3...9........27.342
79..Notre Dame...........85...6...6........27.315
80..Memphis.............114...6...6........27.097
81..Indiana..............15...3...9........26.635
82..Utah St..............20...3...9........25.866
83..San Jose St..........96...6...6........25.629
84..Syracuse..............8...3...9........25.596
85..Louisiana Tech......105...7...5........25.553
86..Kansas St............80...5...7........25.370
87..Fresno St...........103...7...5........25.262
88..Colorado.............32...5...7........25.250
89..UTEP.................75...5...7........24.770
90..Bowling Green.......111...6...6........24.125
91..Eastern Mich.........50...3...9........23.883
92..Mississippi St.......40...4...8........23.701
93..UCLA.................60...4...7........22.592
94..UNLV.................83...5...7........20.640
95..Fla. Atlantic.......100...6...6........19.924
96..UCF..................90...4...8........19.348
97..Akron...............107...5...7........19.268
98..Middle Tenn. St.....118...5...6........19.193
99..Temple...............91...5...7........19.142
100.Ohio.................81...4...8........18.583
101.La.-Lafayette.......116...5...6........17.989
102.Wyoming..............57...4...8........17.776
103.Army.................97...3...8........17.370
104.Texas A&M............64...4...8........12.464
105.New Mexico St........89...3...9........11.728
106.UAB..................97...4...8........10.982
107.Florida Int'l.......115...4...7........10.708
108.Kent St.............108...4...8........10.094
109.Toledo...............93...3...9.........9.838
110.Iowa St..............99...2...10........9.130
111.Tulane...............77...2...10........7.990
112.La.-Monroe..........117...4...8.........5.409
113.SMU..................47...1...11........5.240
114.Miami (Ohio)........102...2...10........5.030
115.Washington...........30...0...11........4.027
116.San Diego St.........73...2...10........3.501
117.Idaho................87...2...10.......-2.917
118.Washington St........76...2...11.......-5.934
119.North Texas.........104...1...11.......-5.978
 
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I decided I could come up with a Conference Ranking too by taking total points (the last column above), adding up the score for each conference member, dividing that number by number of teams the conference. I got the following:

ACC..........52.6687
Big XII......51.7070
SEC..........51.6673
Big 10.......48.4643
Big East.....45.6266
Mnt West.....40.1453
Pac 10.......33.4657
Independants.29.4012
WAC..........28.0243
MAC..........24.9660
C-USA........24.2020
Sunbelt......18.1502
 
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Now then...

Quickly on the Conference rankings... I really don't think the ACC is the toughest conference out there.... on the other hand, since there is no "run away" in the ACC, I suppose it stands to reason.

As for the rankings of 119 teams, I am not happy with a few of the rankings, particularly Number 5 Florida State. I also think #4 Ohio State is too high, among other "problems" (e.g., it seems to me this ranking system unfairly rewards playing a harder schedule, even if you lose several games (Georgia, Florida State), perhaps losses should come with a greater penalty.... I suppose WHO you lose to matter as well, but that's a lot more in depth than I'm willing to go; There is no way in hell Southern California is "worse" than Kansas, TCU, Boise State and others listed higher than them on the field)

I think calling Florida Oklahoma and Texas 1, 2 and 3 is fair.... Likewise, I think the bottom of the list is quite accurate.

Anyway.... I welcome all your observations. Hope you enjoy it none-the-less.
 
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Just thought of this....

I need some way to make the three categories (stat points, wins, and losses) mean about the same thing mathematically. As it is, if you have great stats against a tough schedule you're not likely to get passed in the ratings by a team with a better record.
 
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Hell of a lot of work, please don't take this as anything other than constructive analysis of what I uderstand as a lot of work. So in terms of tweaking...

I hate to beat on one team, but in addition to Floridumbass State, I can't see a team that started 1-3 by losing to the #75 team on your list and getting blown out at Penn State, who is also below them, and then closing by getting blown out of their own building by their top rival is top 10 material. So Oregon State just doesn't sit right with me at 9.

Also, Mississippi beat Florida and LSU, yes, but they also lost to South Carolina (42), Wake (59), and Vanderbilt (60). Is that really top 10 material?
 
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Is a teams SoS discounted for losses? I guess I feel a team should get full SoS credit for wins. Losses, I'm not so sure on. Just scheduling (and losing) to a good team shouldn't get one bumped up a list. Maybe partial credit for taking that chance and not scheduling cupcakes (plus the intrinsic improvement(s) that can come from challenging oneself)?
 
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I don't think the NCAA website is good to use for SOS because I believe they just do it by win/loss record of opponents and I don't that that is the best way to measure SOS. What do you think of using a computer generated measure of SOS like Sagarin's rankings?
 
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Bucklion;1344107; said:
Hell of a lot of work, please don't take this as anything other than constructive analysis of what I uderstand as a lot of work. So in terms of tweaking...

I hate to beat on one team, but in addition to Floridumbass State, I can't see a team that started 1-3 by losing to the #75 team on your list and getting blown out at Penn State, who is also below them, and then closing by getting blown out of their own building by their top rival is top 10 material. So Oregon State just doesn't sit right with me at 9.

Also, Mississippi beat Florida and LSU, yes, but they also lost to South Carolina (42), Wake (59), and Vanderbilt (60). Is that really top 10 material?
Click to expand...

Bucklion;1344112; said:
Northwestern (9-3; 64) being double the rank of Purdue (4-8; 32) after blowing them out of the water is also an interesting one.
Click to expand...

Absolutely agree.... Like I said, the very top and the very bottom seem legit... the rest seems highly suspect.

ochre;1344115; said:
Is a teams SoS discounted for losses? I guess I feel a team should get full SoS credit for wins. Losses, I'm not so sure on. Just scheduling (and losing) to a good team shouldn't get one bumped up a list. Maybe partial credit for taking that chance and not scheduling cupcakes (plus the intrinsic improvement(s) that can come from challenging oneself)?
Click to expand...

Yeah, a loss is discounted.... Oklahoma (the No. 1 schedule) count's as -1, but each of Tulsa's two losses counts double, essentially, as they have the worst schedule.
 
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FWBuckeye;1344116; said:
I don't think the NCAA website is good to use for SOS because I believe they just do it by win/loss record of opponents and I don't that that is the best way to measure SOS. What do you think of using a computer generated measure of SOS like Sagarin's rankings?
Click to expand...
Agreed - that also will allow you to avoid the conflation of rank vs. SoS. Sagarin doesn't sugar-coat the SoS, he provides an explicit score - along with a simple ranking.

I would suggest using the Sagarin score - it provides a better measure of the true SoS than the ranknig, which implies that a schedule ranked 119 in the nation is well, worth 119th the value of the top-rated SoS.

For instance, the numerical difference between SoS for Florida and Ohio State is less than 2 units out of 74, rather than the NCAA SoS rank implying a 7 point difference on a 1-119 scale.

Putting it in layman's terms - don't conflate rank and score.
 
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Not gonna post it right now (formatting issues) but I tweaked the wins and losses. What I did was found a multiplier for each category (W/L) and then tweaked the points for wins, and the points lost for losses, to be more in accord with the stat points.

The ranks are generally still the same, though Flast fell only to 9, Oregon State to 14. Texas Tech moved up to 4, Boise State and Utah now top 10 as well.
 
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