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Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

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Here is my thought.
China is where most of the these diseases are originating from. And the Chinese will not let shit like this go down again because it's too detrimental to their government and economy. That means they will take extreme measures to prevent it from happening again and for the rest of the world that's probably a good thing. They are already cracking down on the "meat markets" where this originated from.
Of course that won't help us with the current pandemic or government actions.
 
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Dryden said:
The problem with using a growth calculator to predict infectious disease spread is that you're missing way too many variables:

1) People are creatures of habit and congregate in familiar places. If you're infected and your routine is just home-work-home, with the occasional stop at a fast food drive-thru window, grocery, gas station pump thrown in, the possibility of you, a single person, directly infecting others eventually tails off. This isn't like compounding interest on your dividend returns or a savings account.
2) People the index patient infects then go off into their own spheres of influence and infect new people, but with similar diminishing returns.
3) People cannot be infected again while they are already themselves infected carriers. See 1) You have to remove the compounding effect of infected carriers. If the index patient starts the infection in 2.6 people of different groups (the R-naught of COVID-19), there stands to reason those groups have overlap of common interest with the index patient where they cannot infect each other in increasing multiples because they're now all already carriers. Multiples in the same sphere cannot infect each other exponentially (E.g.; A church congregation cannot all produce an exponentially linear multiplicative infection rate when their interactions are largely with each other).
4) Rates of incubation and decay. Are previously infected and recovered carriers now immune? (We don't know. Early returns from Wuhan are this is persistent like the flu. Recovery does not convey lifelong immunity).
5) Remove the deceased from the numbers.

So, when calculating infectious disease spread, you have to consider three different equations (The SIR model) using Euler's Method.

http://mat.uab.cat/matmat/PDFv2013/v2013n03.pdf

In layman's terms, you have a multiplicative rate of growth from the index patient to 2.6 people. That doesn't happen daily; it may take 7-14 days. Then you have another compounding from those people that grows exponentially from there in waves. Doubling every six days. Then doubling every five days. Every three days. Then doubling daily, until it cannot double anymore (while still accounting for the fact that maybe 30% of the global population will never come in contact with the infected 70%).

The spread rate eventually goes vertical and 7 or 8% of the infected die because you can only save x number of people a day. (Italy)

This doesn't happen in a vacuum. "Flu season" is present right now. >50% of this nations' respirators are already occupied by people with pneumonia and emphysema complications induced by the flu.
Click to expand...

Yeah, for those of you concerned about the Imperial College report (and read the report, not that moron's twitter thread) be concerned about it as a matter of doing nothing, the suppression/mitigation stuff is really because they needed to say something... if you ONLY take Dryden's point 3 here on the r0. There's so much that goes into it. He's got 2.6 -- they were using 2.2 and 2.4 in the end tables, but a lot of that estimate is based on early Wuhan and Diamond Princess estimates, and obviously its going to act differently in Communist industrial city mega apartments and cruise ships than its going to act in Kansas and fairfield county. But maybe not different much than Manhattan... how does the summer affect this if at all, how does the number of hospitalised change in and out of flu season (indirect summer, both from and available beds perspective and from a, "I had flu, now I got Wuhan, and super pnuemonia as a result" perspective.) What is the actual rate of asymptomatic patients out there and what is the difference between their r0 rates and the symptomatic cases and how do they affect the increase in infection rates by being infected. (if its 25-30% then that's a big ass deal itself... also makes the early measures critical)
 
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This is how stupid it has gotten. Restaurants are now closed except for to go orders right. Local restaurant owner goes to local grocery and buys all the beef and chicken out because she can’t get supplies. Guess what you dumb bitch because of you neither can the general public. I hope your restaurant goes under....
 
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OHSportsFan said:
Anyone read the Imperial College report? Apparently this is the report that led to the more drastic actions we’ve seen this week.

Would be interested in the “pandemic simulation” details. Does it have the bona fides in modeling? How would we know?

One person’s summary starts here.



Sounds like it’s quick and very bad or slow and very inconvenient (and also bad).
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These are the same “scientists” modeling the climate.Agenda driven.
 
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OHSportsFan said:
“Hope is not a strategy” but I have to think there is some better/more optimistic viewpoint than this one report that has limited inputs.

So many variables at play with population densities, climate, current/future human intervention (ie suppression, quarantine, natural immunity, and *fingers crossed* eventual vaccine).

I know these are smart people. I don’t doubt this is bad and will strain our systems. I just hope their long term model is wrong.

I can’t do 18 months of this shit.
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NO ONE can do 18 months of this shit. How many Americans live paycheck to paycheck?

Strain our systems? They just made 200+ million people homeless.
 
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Dryden said:
And these projected mortality rates do not include an uptick in mortality for non-COVID-19 patients. Fatalities from pneumonia, strokes, heart attacks, etc will all go up too when hospitals are at 125% capacity.
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Let's not forget suicides, which are bound to increase as people run out of money, supplies, and hope.
 
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Taosman said:
Here is my thought.
China is where most of the these diseases are originating from. And the Chinese will not let shit like this go down again because it's too detrimental to their government and economy. That means they will take extreme measures to prevent it from happening again and for the rest of the world that's probably a good thing. They are already cracking down on the "meat markets" where this originated from.
Of course that won't help us with the current pandemic or government actions.
Click to expand...
:lol:
 
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NJ-Buckeye said:
Thread is heavy lean to being moved to poli forum.. despite not sure if that forum still exists
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There's a thread in the poli forum for this too... and I'd say this is sorta the overarching topic of the year and will be for a while, I'm not exactly sure you want to quarantine this discussion.
 
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AKAK said:
There's a thread in the poli forum for this too... and I'd say this is sorta the overarching topic of the year and will be for a while, I'm not exactly sure you want to quarantine this discussion.
Click to expand...
Would there be any interest in a humor thread? For those like me that could use a break from the despair?
 
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