Comparing Talent: Ohio State vs Michigan

[LordJeffBuck]

I have compared the current rosters for Ohio State and Michigan to see which is more talented, and by how much. I used the 247 Composite rating for each player. Of course, I could not factor player development into the equation, so lets just assume that it is equal for both teams (although I suspect that Ohio State does a better job of player development despite [spoiler alert!] having much better talent to begin with).

A quick glance at the charts should tell you all you need to know: There is lots of scarlet at the top and lots of blue at the bottom.

No.	Player..............................	Position	247 Composite
1	Justin Fields	QB	1.0000
2	Shea Patterson	QB	0.9982
3	Nicholas Petit-Frere	OL	0.9963
4	Chase Young	DL	0.9957
5	Jeffrey Okudah	DB	0.9955
6	Baron Browning	LB	0.9940
7	Zach Harrison	DL	0.9933
8	Daxton Hill	DB	0.9927
9	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	0.9925
10	Shaun Wade	DB	0.9904
11	Garrett Wilson	WR	0.9903
12	Taron Vincent	DL	0.9884
13	Wyatt Davis	OL	0.9876
13	Tyreke Johnson	DB	0.9876
15	Harry Miller	OL	0.9868
16	Chris Hinton	DL	0.9867
17	Justin Hilliard	LB	0.9851
18	Jaelen Gill	RB	0.9831
19	Tyreke Smith	DL	0.9816
20	Jonathon Cooper	DL	0.9811
21	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	0.9810
22	Ben Bredeson	OL	0.9799
23	J.K. Dobbins	RB	0.9791
24	Cesar Ruiz	OL	0.9786
25	Teradja Mitchell	LB	0.9771
26	Demario McCall	RB	0.9767
27	Zach Charbonnet	RB	0.9760
28	Josh Myers	OL	0.9757
29	Luiji Vilain	DL	0.9734
30	Tommy Togiai	DL	0.9721
31	Isaiah Pryor	DB	0.9712
32	Haskell Garrett	DL	0.9678
33	Matthew Jones	OL	0.9652
34	Austin Mack	WR	0.9649
35	Josh Proctor	DB	0.9640
36	Kamryn Babb	WR	0.9629
37	Jameson Williams	WR	0.9621
38	Ambry Thomas	DB	0.9583
39	Michael Onwenu	OL	0.9571
40	Jashon Cornell	DL	0.9563
41	Tyler Friday	DL	0.9560
42	Binjimen Victor	WR	0.9546
43	Mazi Smith	DL	0.9536
44	Trente Jones	OL	0.9512
45	Jordan Anthony	LB	0.9510
46	Cade Stover	LB	0.9507
47	Jonah Jackson	OL	0.9500
48	Aidan Hutchinson	DL	0.9498
49	Ronnie Hickman	DB	0.9485
50	Cameron McGrone	LB	0.9481

No.	Player..............................	Position	247 Composite
51	Chuck Filiaga	OL	0.9475
52	Max Wray	OL	0.9473
53	Tarik Black	WR	0.9454
54	Enokk Vimahi	OL	0.9445
55	Jake Hausmann	TE	0.9439
56	Dylan McCaffrey	QB	0.9435
57	Brendon White	DB	0.9421
58	Lavert Hill	DB	0.9409
59	Jordan Fuller	DB	0.9403
60	Nico Collins	WR	0.9378
61	K.J. Hill	WR	0.9330
62	Dallas Gant	LB	0.9322
63	Mustapha Muhammad	TE	0.9318
64	Nolan Rumler	OL	0.9295
65	Cornelius Johnson	WR	0.9294
66	Trevor Keegan	OL	0.9288
67	Antwuan Jackson	DL	0.9260
68	Jaylen Harris	WR	0.9254
69	Marcus Williamson	DB	0.9250
70	Amir Riep	DB	0.9243
71	Luke Farrell	TE	0.9233
72	Joe Milton	QB	0.9202
73	Jalen Perry	DB	0.9186
74	Josh Ross	LB	0.9184
75	K'Vaughan Pope	LB	0.9170
76	Javontae Jean-Baptiste	DL	0.9168
77	Sevyn Banks	DB	0.9166
78	Anthony Solomon	LB	0.9137
79	Master Teague III	RB	0.9132
80	Steele Chambers	ATH	0.9126
81	Jerron Cage	DL	0.9105
82	Jaylen Kelly-Powell	DB	0.9071
83	Jalen Mayfield	OL	0.9062
84	Karsen Barnhart	OL	0.9057
85	Cade McNamara	QB	0.9052
86	Ryan Jacoby	OL	0.9031
87	Giles Jackson	WR	0.9004
88	Pete Werner	LB	0.8994
89	David Ojabo	DL	0.8986
90	Thayer Munford	OL	0.8985
91	Quinten Johnson	DB	0.8982
92	Cameron Brown	ATH	0.8971
92	Donovan Jeter	DL	0.8971
94	Tommy Eichenberg	LB	0.8966
95	Noah Potter	DL	0.8958
95	Ryan Hayes	OL	0.8958
97	Carlo Kemp	DL	0.8954
98	Erick All	TE	0.8937
99	Tuf Borland	LB	0.8933
100	Marcus Crowley	RB	0.8917

No.	Player..............................	Position	247 Composite
101	Nick Eubanks	TE	0.8893
102	Gemon Green	DB	0.8891
102	Mike Morris	DL	0.8891
104	D.J. Turner	DB	0.8888
105	Chris Olave	WR	0.8875
106	Andrew Steuber	OL	0.8860
107	J'Marick Woods	DB	0.8838
108	Khaleke Hudson	LB	0.8819
109	Charles Thomas	LB	0.8810
110	Mike Danna	DL	0.8800
111	Gavin Cupp	OL	0.8791
112	Christian Turner	RB	0.8784
113	Brad Hawkins	DB	0.8783
114	Zach Carpenter	OL	0.8776
115	Joel Honigford	OL	0.8761
116	Jack Stewart	OL	0.8756
116	Bryson Shaw	DB	0.8756
118	Cormontae Hamilton	TE	0.8754
119	Mike Sainristil	WR	0.8743
120	Taylor Upshaw	DL	0.8742
121	Craig Young	ATH	0.8735
122	Sammy Faustin	DB	0.8729
123	Phillip Paea	DL	0.8721
124	Robert Landers	DL	0.8719
125	Alex Williams	DL	0.8713
126	Ben Van Sumeren	OL	0.8709
127	Marcus Hooker	DB	0.8701
128	Kwity Paye	DL	0.8696
129	Julius Welschof	DL	0.8694
130	Vincent Gray	DB	0.8667
131	Branden Bowen	OL	0.8666
132	Jaden McKenzie	DL	0.8661
133	Josh Alabi	OL	0.8655
133	Gabe Newburg	DL	0.8655
135	Michael Barrett	LB	0.8635
136	Luke Schoonmaker	TE	0.8614
137	George Johnson III	ATH	0.8601
138	Damon Arnette	DB	0.8596
139	Rashod Berry	TE	0.8568
139	Malik Harrison	LB	0.8568
141	Quintel Kent	WR	0.8564
142	Josh Uche	DL	0.8558
143	Stephen Spanellis	OL	0.8543
144	Josh Metellus	DB	0.8540
145	Hassan Haskins	RB	0.8539
146	Joey Velasquez	DB	0.8531
147	Dawand Jones	OL	0.8527
148	Ellijah Gardiner	WR	0.8518
149	Ben Mason	FB	0.8510
150	Sean McKeon	TE	0.8493
151	Gunnar Hoak	QB	0.8485
151	Jahsen Wint	DB	0.8485
153	Davon Hamilton	DL	0.8457
154	Michael Dwumfour	DL	0.8453
155	German Green	DB	0.8444
156	Devin Gil	LB	0.8428
157	John Runyon	OL	0.8402
158	Ronnie Bell	WR	0.8349

Here are the top 50 players broken down into groups of ten:

01-10: Ohio State 7, Michigan 3
11-20: Ohio State 9, Michigan 1
21-30: Ohio State 6, Michigan 4
31-40: Ohio State 8, Michigan 2
41-50: Ohio State 5, Michigan 5

So Ohio State has 35 of the top 50 players (70%), while Michigan has only 15 (30%). It is very difficult to beat a team when your opponent has more than twice as many top end players as you do, and that is exactly the position in which Michigan finds itself. In football terms, Ohio State can field an entire team of 22 players, plus 13 reserves, from top-50 recruits, while Michigan can barely field a single unit (offense or defense) from top-50 recruits.

Things get a little bit better for Michigan in the second 50 players:

51--60: Ohio State 5, Michigan 5
61--70: Ohio State 6, Michigan 4
71--80: Ohio State 6, Michigan 4
81--90: Michigan 6, Ohio State 4
91-100: Ohio State 5, Michigan 5

In the second group of 50 players, Ohio State still holds a slight edge, 26 to 24, or 52% to 48%. Among the top-100 players, Ohio State has 61 while Michigan has only 39. Note that Ohio State has almost as many top-50 players (35) as Michigan has top-100 players (39).

Michigan owns the rest of the chart, which is not a good thing. Of the bottom 58 players, 39 (67%) belong to Michigan, while only 19 (33%) are with Ohio State. (Note that place kickers, punters, long snappers are not rated).

Ohio State has 80 players on the chart, while Michigan has 78 players. Here's how the two teams compare by percentage of players in the top-50, second-50, and bottom-58:

Program	Top-50	2nd-50	Bottom-76
Ohio State Buckeyes	35/80 (43.75%)	26/80 (32.50%)	19/80 (23.75%)
Michigan Wolverines	15/78 (19.25%)	24/78 (30.75%)	39/78 (50.00%)

Here's another way to look at this: Each team has roughly the same number of players on its current roster (80 for Ohio State, 78 for Michigan). The midpoint player for Ohio State is #40, for Michigan #39. Ohio State's #40 player is Jordan Fuller (0.9403 rating), who places at #59 overall (37th percentile). Michigan's #39 player is Erick All (0.8937 rating), who places at #98 overall (62nd percentile).

Finally, the average rating for Ohio State's players is .9308, and the average rating for Michigan's players is .9020. To people who don't know recruiting, three points might not seem like a huge talent gap. However, take your favorite football simulator game; give every player on one team a score of 93; give every player on the other team a score of 90; play fifteen games, and see which team wins fourteen of them.

 

[MaxBuck]

I certainly understand what you're saying, LJB, but it looks to me as though if we limit the analysis to who actually sees the field as starters, the differential doesn't look nearly as great. We've got a lot of probable and past starters in the mid-.80's on that list.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

I certainly understand what you're saying, LJB, but it looks to me as though if we limit the analysis to who actually sees the field as starters, the differential doesn't look nearly as great. We've got a lot of probable and past starters in the mid-.80's on that list.

Well, that goes towards player development and Pantoni's ability to identify under the radar/late offer guys. Reality is that Michigan's ones are not that much different than OSU- though I believe OSU still wins the battle of ones - but depth is where OSU really butters its bread. Fresh bodies with more talent will win damn near every time.

 

[MaxBuck]

Well, that goes towards player development and Pantoni's ability to identify under the radar/late offer guys. Reality is that Michigan's ones are not that much different than OSU- though I believe OSU still wins the battle of ones - but depth is where OSU really butters its bread. Fresh bodies with more talent will win damn near every time.

This, plus the whole culture at Michigan is one of entitlement. And it's been that way since before Harbaugh got there.

Entitlement doesn't breed championships; it breeds disappointment.

 

[Lurker11]

Finally, the average rating for Ohio State's players is .9308, and the average rating for Michigan's players is .9020. To people who don't know recruiting, three points might not seem like a huge talent gap. However, take your favorite football simulator game; give every player on one team a score of 93; give every player on the other team a score of 90; play fifteen games, and see which team wins fourteen of them.

Here are the results from my simulator. Your math checks out.

 

[charlohiottean]

Here are the results from my simulator. Your math checks out.

View attachment 21992

So your simulator spits out the same OSU score (42) for one third of the games and under two different coaches? Please. Even after throwing out that bottom score as a statistical outlier, you might want to use something that gives more believable results.




OSU football right now:

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I have compared the current rosters for Ohio State and Michigan to see which is more talented, and by how much. I used the 247 Composite rating for each player. Of course, I could not factor player development into the equation, so lets just assume that it is equal for both teams (although I suspect that Ohio State does a better job of player development despite [spoiler alert!] having much better talent to begin with).

A quick glance at the charts should tell you all you need to know: There is lots of scarlet at the top and lots of blue at the bottom.
...

I didn't want to risk jacking up the table formatting in your post by putting the GPA in it, so I'll put it here for your post:

 

[LordJeffBuck]

Below is a list of the 25 highest-rated recruits (using 247 Composite) on Ohio State and Michigan. The complete list is HERE. Ohio State has 19 of the top 25 players (76%), while Michigan has only 6 (24%).

Ohio State has far more elite players than Michigan. And our elite players (Fields; Dobbins; Young; Okudah; Davis; Wilson) had far more impact on The Game than theirs.

Five of the six Michigan players on the list are starters; one (Hinton) is a key reserve.

Seven of the nineteen Ohio State players are starters (Fields; Young; Okudah; Davis; Hilliard; Cooper; Dobbins); five are key reserves (Browning; Harrison; Wilson; Smith; Ruckert); and seven either didn't play or barely played in The Game (Petit-Frere; Wade; Johnson; Miller; Vincent; Gill; Mitchell).

What does this mean? After the 2019 season, Ohio State is ready to reload with elite players, guys like Zach Harrison and Nicholas Petit-Frere and Taron Vincent and Teradja Mitchell and Harry Miller. Michigan? Three-star heaven....

No.	Player..............................	Position	247 Composite
1	Justin Fields	QB	1.0000
2	Shea Patterson	QB	0.9982
3	Nicholas Petit-Frere	OL	0.9963
4	Chase Young	DL	0.9957
5	Jeffrey Okudah	DB	0.9955
6	Baron Browning	LB	0.9940
7	Zach Harrison	DL	0.9933
8	Daxton Hill	DB	0.9927
9	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	0.9925
10	Shaun Wade	DB	0.9904
11	Garrett Wilson	WR	0.9903
12	Taron Vincent	DL	0.9884
13	Wyatt Davis	OL	0.9876
13	Tyreke Johnson	DB	0.9876
15	Harry Miller	OL	0.9868
16	Chris Hinton	DL	0.9867
17	Justin Hilliard	LB	0.9851
18	Jaelen Gill	RB	0.9831
19	Tyreke Smith	DL	0.9816
20	Jonathon Cooper	DL	0.9811
21	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	0.9810
22	Ben Bredeson	OL	0.9799
23	J.K. Dobbins	RB	0.9791
24	Cesar Ruiz	OL	0.9786
25	Teradja Mitchell	LB	0.9771

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Below is a list of the 25 highest-rated recruits (using 247 Composite) on Ohio State and Michigan. The complete list is HERE. Ohio State has 19 of the top 25 players (76%), while Michigan has only 6 (24%).

Ohio State has far more elite players than Michigan. And our elite players (Fields; Dobbins; Young; Okudah; Davis; Wilson) had far more impact on The Game than theirs.

Five of the six Michigan players on the list are starters; one (Hinton) is a key reserve.

Seven of the nineteen Ohio State players are starters (Fields; Young; Okudah; Davis; Hilliard; Cooper; Dobbins); five are key reserves (Browning; Harrison; Wilson; Smith; Ruckert); and seven either didn't play or barely played in The Game (Petit-Frere; Wade; Johnson; Miller; Vincent; Gill; Mitchell).

What does this mean? After the 2019 season, Ohio State is ready to reload with elite players, guys like Zach Harrison and Nicholas Petit-Frere and Taron Vincent and Teradja Mitchell and Harry Miller. Michigan? Three-star heaven....

No.	Player..............................	Position	247 Composite
1	Justin Fields	QB	1.0000
2	Shea Patterson	QB	0.9982
3	Nicholas Petit-Frere	OL	0.9963
4	Chase Young	DL	0.9957
5	Jeffrey Okudah	DB	0.9955
6	Baron Browning	LB	0.9940
7	Zach Harrison	DL	0.9933
8	Daxton Hill	DB	0.9927
9	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	0.9925
10	Shaun Wade	DB	0.9904
11	Garrett Wilson	WR	0.9903
12	Taron Vincent	DL	0.9884
13	Wyatt Davis	OL	0.9876
13	Tyreke Johnson	DB	0.9876
15	Harry Miller	OL	0.9868
16	Chris Hinton	DL	0.9867
17	Justin Hilliard	LB	0.9851
18	Jaelen Gill	RB	0.9831
19	Tyreke Smith	DL	0.9816
20	Jonathon Cooper	DL	0.9811
21	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	0.9810
22	Ben Bredeson	OL	0.9799
23	J.K. Dobbins	RB	0.9791
24	Cesar Ruiz	OL	0.9786
25	Teradja Mitchell	LB	0.9771

Meanwhile the high ranking talent they have seems to develop poorly. I know the sample size is small above (because they suck at bringing in talent) but they suck at developing talent up there. Sheila was fine, but not a star. DPJ, again fine but not the beast we expected him to be, especially if he had landed in Columbus instead of AA. Ruiz was good. At least they have that.

 

[LordJeffBuck]

 

[LovelandBuckeye]

But their punter is rated higher!!11!111!!!!

 

[thackattack]

But their punter is rated higher!!11!111!!!!

Lot of punting going on up there. Checks out.

 

[exhawg]

Below is a list of the 25 highest-rated recruits (using 247 Composite) on Ohio State and Michigan. The complete list is HERE. Ohio State has 19 of the top 25 players (76%), while Michigan has only 6 (24%).

Ohio State has far more elite players than Michigan. And our elite players (Fields; Dobbins; Young; Okudah; Davis; Wilson) had far more impact on The Game than theirs.

Five of the six Michigan players on the list are starters; one (Hinton) is a key reserve.

Seven of the nineteen Ohio State players are starters (Fields; Young; Okudah; Davis; Hilliard; Cooper; Dobbins); five are key reserves (Browning; Harrison; Wilson; Smith; Ruckert); and seven either didn't play or barely played in The Game (Petit-Frere; Wade; Johnson; Miller; Vincent; Gill; Mitchell).

What does this mean? After the 2019 season, Ohio State is ready to reload with elite players, guys like Zach Harrison and Nicholas Petit-Frere and Taron Vincent and Teradja Mitchell and Harry Miller. Michigan? Three-star heaven....

No.	Player..............................	Position	247 Composite
1	Justin Fields	QB	1.0000
2	Shea Patterson	QB	0.9982
3	Nicholas Petit-Frere	OL	0.9963
4	Chase Young	DL	0.9957
5	Jeffrey Okudah	DB	0.9955
6	Baron Browning	LB	0.9940
7	Zach Harrison	DL	0.9933
8	Daxton Hill	DB	0.9927
9	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	0.9925
10	Shaun Wade	DB	0.9904
11	Garrett Wilson	WR	0.9903
12	Taron Vincent	DL	0.9884
13	Wyatt Davis	OL	0.9876
13	Tyreke Johnson	DB	0.9876
15	Harry Miller	OL	0.9868
16	Chris Hinton	DL	0.9867
17	Justin Hilliard	LB	0.9851
18	Jaelen Gill	RB	0.9831
19	Tyreke Smith	DL	0.9816
20	Jonathon Cooper	DL	0.9811
21	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	0.9810
22	Ben Bredeson	OL	0.9799
23	J.K. Dobbins	RB	0.9791
24	Cesar Ruiz	OL	0.9786
25	Teradja Mitchell	LB	0.9771

As a Browns fan I'm happy that they ruined DPJ's draft stock by not developing him. I hope he becomes an all-star and we can show every recruit how scUM can make you a low draft pick regardless of talent.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Going to get even wider if the other two 5 stars come on board as projected.

 

[BigWoof31]

But their punter is rated higher!!11!111!!!!

Good. They're gonna need him