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Comparing Talent: Ohio State vs Michigan

Discussion in 'College Football' started by LordJeffBuck, Jul 19, 2019.

  1. LordJeffBuck

    LordJeffBuck Illuminatus Emeritus Staff Member

    I have compared the current rosters for Ohio State and Michigan to see which is more talented, and by how much. I used the 247 Composite rating for each player. Of course, I could not factor player development into the equation, so lets just assume that it is equal for both teams (although I suspect that Ohio State does a better job of player development despite [spoiler alert!] having much better talent to begin with).

    A quick glance at the charts should tell you all you need to know: There is lots of scarlet at the top and lots of blue at the bottom.


    No.Player..............................Position247 Composite
    1Justin FieldsQB1.0000
    2Shea PattersonQB0.9982
    3Nicholas Petit-FrereOL0.9963
    4Chase YoungDL0.9957
    5Jeffrey OkudahDB0.9955
    6Baron BrowningLB0.9940
    7Zach HarrisonDL0.9933
    8Daxton HillDB0.9927
    9Donovan Peoples-JonesWR0.9925
    10Shaun WadeDB0.9904
    11Garrett WilsonWR0.9903
    12Taron VincentDL0.9884
    13Wyatt DavisOL0.9876
    13Tyreke JohnsonDB0.9876
    15Harry MillerOL0.9868
    16Chris HintonDL0.9867
    17Justin HilliardLB0.9851
    18Jaelen GillRB0.9831
    19Tyreke SmithDL0.9816
    20Jonathon CooperDL0.9811
    21Jeremy RuckertTE0.9810
    22Ben BredesonOL0.9799
    23J.K. DobbinsRB0.9791
    24Cesar RuizOL0.9786
    25Teradja MitchellLB0.9771
    26Demario McCallRB0.9767
    27Zach CharbonnetRB0.9760
    28Josh MyersOL0.9757
    29Luiji VilainDL0.9734
    30Tommy TogiaiDL0.9721
    31Isaiah PryorDB0.9712
    32Haskell GarrettDL0.9678
    33Matthew JonesOL0.9652
    34Austin MackWR0.9649
    35Josh ProctorDB0.9640
    36Kamryn BabbWR0.9629
    37Jameson WilliamsWR0.9621
    38Ambry ThomasDB0.9583
    39Michael OnwenuOL0.9571
    40Jashon CornellDL0.9563
    41Tyler FridayDL0.9560
    42Binjimen VictorWR0.9546
    43Mazi SmithDL0.9536
    44Trente JonesOL0.9512
    45Jordan AnthonyLB0.9510
    46Cade StoverLB0.9507
    47Jonah JacksonOL0.9500
    48Aidan HutchinsonDL0.9498
    49Ronnie HickmanDB0.9485
    50Cameron McGroneLB0.9481


    No.Player..............................Position247 Composite
    51Chuck FiliagaOL0.9475
    52Max WrayOL0.9473
    53Tarik BlackWR0.9454
    54Enokk VimahiOL0.9445
    55Jake HausmannTE0.9439
    56Dylan McCaffreyQB0.9435
    57Brendon WhiteDB0.9421
    58Lavert HillDB0.9409
    59Jordan FullerDB0.9403
    60Nico CollinsWR0.9378
    61K.J. HillWR0.9330
    62Dallas GantLB0.9322
    63Mustapha MuhammadTE0.9318
    64Nolan RumlerOL0.9295
    65Cornelius JohnsonWR0.9294
    66Trevor KeeganOL0.9288
    67Antwuan JacksonDL0.9260
    68Jaylen HarrisWR0.9254
    69Marcus WilliamsonDB0.9250
    70Amir RiepDB0.9243
    71Luke FarrellTE0.9233
    72Joe MiltonQB0.9202
    73Jalen PerryDB0.9186
    74Josh RossLB0.9184
    75K'Vaughan PopeLB0.9170
    76Javontae Jean-BaptisteDL0.9168
    77Sevyn BanksDB0.9166
    78Anthony SolomonLB0.9137
    79Master Teague IIIRB0.9132
    80Steele ChambersATH0.9126
    81Jerron CageDL0.9105
    82Jaylen Kelly-PowellDB0.9071
    83Jalen MayfieldOL0.9062
    84Karsen BarnhartOL0.9057
    85Cade McNamaraQB0.9052
    86Ryan JacobyOL0.9031
    87Giles JacksonWR0.9004
    88Pete WernerLB0.8994
    89David OjaboDL0.8986
    90Thayer MunfordOL0.8985
    91Quinten JohnsonDB0.8982
    92Cameron BrownATH0.8971
    92Donovan JeterDL0.8971
    94Tommy EichenbergLB0.8966
    95Noah PotterDL0.8958
    95Ryan HayesOL0.8958
    97Carlo KempDL0.8954
    98Erick AllTE0.8937
    99Tuf BorlandLB0.8933
    100Marcus CrowleyRB0.8917


    No.Player..............................Position247 Composite
    101Nick EubanksTE0.8893
    102Gemon GreenDB0.8891
    102Mike MorrisDL0.8891
    104D.J. TurnerDB0.8888
    105Chris OlaveWR0.8875
    106Andrew SteuberOL0.8860
    107J'Marick WoodsDB0.8838
    108Khaleke HudsonLB0.8819
    109Charles ThomasLB0.8810
    110Mike DannaDL0.8800
    111Gavin CuppOL0.8791
    112Christian TurnerRB0.8784
    113Brad HawkinsDB0.8783
    114Zach CarpenterOL0.8776
    115Joel HonigfordOL0.8761
    116Jack StewartOL0.8756
    116Bryson ShawDB0.8756
    118Cormontae HamiltonTE0.8754
    119Mike SainristilWR0.8743
    120Taylor UpshawDL0.8742
    121Craig YoungATH0.8735
    122Sammy FaustinDB0.8729
    123Phillip PaeaDL0.8721
    124Robert LandersDL0.8719
    125Alex WilliamsDL0.8713
    126Ben Van SumerenOL0.8709
    127Marcus HookerDB0.8701
    128Kwity PayeDL0.8696
    129Julius WelschofDL0.8694
    130Vincent GrayDB0.8667
    131Branden BowenOL0.8666
    132Jaden McKenzieDL0.8661
    133Josh AlabiOL0.8655
    133Gabe NewburgDL0.8655
    135Michael BarrettLB0.8635
    136Luke SchoonmakerTE0.8614
    137George Johnson IIIATH0.8601
    138Damon ArnetteDB0.8596
    139Rashod BerryTE0.8568
    139Malik HarrisonLB0.8568
    141Quintel KentWR0.8564
    142Josh UcheDL0.8558
    143Stephen SpanellisOL0.8543
    144Josh MetellusDB0.8540
    145Hassan HaskinsRB0.8539
    146Joey VelasquezDB0.8531
    147Dawand JonesOL0.8527
    148Ellijah GardinerWR0.8518
    149Ben MasonFB0.8510
    150Sean McKeonTE0.8493
    151Gunnar HoakQB0.8485
    151Jahsen WintDB0.8485
    153Davon HamiltonDL0.8457
    154Michael DwumfourDL0.8453
    155German GreenDB0.8444
    156Devin GilLB0.8428
    157John RunyonOL0.8402
    158Ronnie BellWR0.8349
    Here are the top 50 players broken down into groups of ten:


    01-10: Ohio State 7, Michigan 3
    11-20: Ohio State 9, Michigan 1
    21-30: Ohio State 6, Michigan 4
    31-40: Ohio State 8, Michigan 2
    41-50: Ohio State 5, Michigan 5


    So Ohio State has 35 of the top 50 players (70%), while Michigan has only 15 (30%). It is very difficult to beat a team when your opponent has more than twice as many top end players as you do, and that is exactly the position in which Michigan finds itself. In football terms, Ohio State can field an entire team of 22 players, plus 13 reserves, from top-50 recruits, while Michigan can barely field a single unit (offense or defense) from top-50 recruits.

    Things get a little bit better for Michigan in the second 50 players:

    51--60: Ohio State 5, Michigan 5
    61--70: Ohio State 6, Michigan 4
    71--80: Ohio State 6, Michigan 4
    81--90: Michigan 6, Ohio State 4
    91-100: Ohio State 5, Michigan 5


    In the second group of 50 players, Ohio State still holds a slight edge, 26 to 24, or 52% to 48%. Among the top-100 players, Ohio State has 61 while Michigan has only 39. Note that Ohio State has almost as many top-50 players (35) as Michigan has top-100 players (39).

    Michigan owns the rest of the chart, which is not a good thing. Of the bottom 58 players, 39 (67%) belong to Michigan, while only 19 (33%) are with Ohio State. (Note that place kickers, punters, long snappers are not rated).

    Ohio State has 80 players on the chart, while Michigan has 78 players. Here's how the two teams compare by percentage of players in the top-50, second-50, and bottom-58:

    ProgramTop-502nd-50Bottom-76
    Ohio State Buckeyes35/80 (43.75%)26/80 (32.50%)19/80 (23.75%)
    Michigan Wolverines15/78 (19.25%)24/78 (30.75%)39/78 (50.00%)
    Here's another way to look at this: Each team has roughly the same number of players on its current roster (80 for Ohio State, 78 for Michigan). The midpoint player for Ohio State is #40, for Michigan #39. Ohio State's #40 player is Jordan Fuller (0.9403 rating), who places at #59 overall (37th percentile). Michigan's #39 player is Erick All (0.8937 rating), who places at #98 overall (62nd percentile).

    Finally, the average rating for Ohio State's players is .9308, and the average rating for Michigan's players is .9020. To people who don't know recruiting, three points might not seem like a huge talent gap. However, take your favorite football simulator game; give every player on one team a score of 93; give every player on the other team a score of 90; play fifteen games, and see which team wins fourteen of them.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2019
  2. MaxBuck

    MaxBuck 2014 National Champions!

    I certainly understand what you're saying, LJB, but it looks to me as though if we limit the analysis to who actually sees the field as starters, the differential doesn't look nearly as great. We've got a lot of probable and past starters in the mid-.80's on that list.
     
  3. Buckeyeskickbuttocks

    Buckeyeskickbuttocks Z --> Z^2 + c Staff Member

    Well, that goes towards player development and Pantoni's ability to identify under the radar/late offer guys. Reality is that Michigan's ones are not that much different than OSU- though I believe OSU still wins the battle of ones - but depth is where OSU really butters its bread. Fresh bodies with more talent will win damn near every time.
     
  4. MaxBuck

    MaxBuck 2014 National Champions!

    This, plus the whole culture at Michigan is one of entitlement. And it's been that way since before Harbaugh got there.

    Entitlement doesn't breed championships; it breeds disappointment.
     
  5. Lurker11

    Lurker11 Greyshirted

    Here are the results from my simulator. Your math checks out.

    Screen Shot 2019-07-20 at 03.25.19.png
     
    mendensa, Abenaki, cincibuck and 5 others like this.
  6. charlohiottean

    charlohiottean So much potential…

    So your simulator spits out the same OSU score (42) for one third of the games and under two different coaches? Please. Even after throwing out that bottom score as a statistical outlier, you might want to use something that gives more believable results.




    OSU football right now:

    67F1BC6F-8E92-435D-8D02-A18CBE954266.gif
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2019
  7. MililaniBuckeye

    MililaniBuckeye The satanic soulless freight train that is Ohio St Staff Member Tech Admin

    I didn't want to risk jacking up the table formatting in your post by putting the GPA in it, so I'll put it here for your post:

    GPA.gif
     
    brodybuck21 and Honor&Glory like this.
  8. LordJeffBuck

    LordJeffBuck Illuminatus Emeritus Staff Member

    Below is a list of the 25 highest-rated recruits (using 247 Composite) on Ohio State and Michigan. The complete list is HERE. Ohio State has 19 of the top 25 players (76%), while Michigan has only 6 (24%).

    Ohio State has far more elite players than Michigan. And our elite players (Fields; Dobbins; Young; Okudah; Davis; Wilson) had far more impact on The Game than theirs.

    Five of the six Michigan players on the list are starters; one (Hinton) is a key reserve.

    Seven of the nineteen Ohio State players are starters (Fields; Young; Okudah; Davis; Hilliard; Cooper; Dobbins); five are key reserves (Browning; Harrison; Wilson; Smith; Ruckert); and seven either didn't play or barely played in The Game (Petit-Frere; Wade; Johnson; Miller; Vincent; Gill; Mitchell).

    What does this mean? After the 2019 season, Ohio State is ready to reload with elite players, guys like Zach Harrison and Nicholas Petit-Frere and Taron Vincent and Teradja Mitchell and Harry Miller. Michigan? Three-star heaven....

    No.Player..............................Position247 Composite
    1Justin FieldsQB1.0000
    2Shea PattersonQB0.9982
    3Nicholas Petit-FrereOL0.9963
    4Chase YoungDL0.9957
    5Jeffrey OkudahDB0.9955
    6Baron BrowningLB0.9940
    7Zach HarrisonDL0.9933
    8Daxton HillDB0.9927
    9Donovan Peoples-JonesWR0.9925
    10Shaun WadeDB0.9904
    11Garrett WilsonWR0.9903
    12Taron VincentDL0.9884
    13Wyatt DavisOL0.9876
    13Tyreke JohnsonDB0.9876
    15Harry MillerOL0.9868
    16Chris HintonDL0.9867
    17Justin HilliardLB0.9851
    18Jaelen GillRB0.9831
    19Tyreke SmithDL0.9816
    20Jonathon CooperDL0.9811
    21Jeremy RuckertTE0.9810
    22Ben BredesonOL0.9799
    23J.K. DobbinsRB0.9791
    24Cesar RuizOL0.9786
    25Teradja MitchellLB0.9771
     
  9. Nigel Tufnel

    Nigel Tufnel Choking on vomit

    Meanwhile the high ranking talent they have seems to develop poorly. I know the sample size is small above (because they suck at bringing in talent) but they suck at developing talent up there. Sheila was fine, but not a star. DPJ, again fine but not the beast we expected him to be, especially if he had landed in Columbus instead of AA. Ruiz was good. At least they have that.
     
    Cratylus likes this.

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