We love Mel Kiper Jr., but does he know where Phil Kessel will wind up?
1. St. Louis Blues: The Blues are picking first overall for the first time in franchise history, and just their luck, there isn't a ready-made Calder Trophy winner waiting for them. They need just about everything and have plenty of cap space. Which begs the question: Will we see more trades of high draft picks for multiple players? A team which is capped out can rid itself of two or three players for an inexpensive draft pick. The good team gets cap relief and an 18-year-old they can develop over two to three seasons. The bad team gets two or three ready-made players and perhaps a first pick in the late first round as part of a draft-pick switch. Especially in draft pools like this year where there is no Kovalchuk, Ovechkin or Crosby.
The Blues need everything. I would approach the draft strategy like an expansion team. Stay young, accumulate some high picks over the next three drafts and then add in veterans as the unrestricted free agency age drops. Picking up Keith Tkachuk's option was smart, because they will be able to trade him for a first-round pick down the road.
Free agency: Only cheap veterans. Play the young guys and get back in the lottery again next year and hope you get Angelo Esposito in the 2007 draft.
Draft: I would select Jordan Staal with the No. 1 pick. A big center that just looks and sounds like a Blue. Give him two seasons to add 10-15 more pounds and then show him to Missouri.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins: Talentwise, the Penguins are in good shape. They have high-level, young assets in Crosby,
Marc-Andre Fleury and Evgeni Malkin. They also have a couple of second-tier prospects that could grow together as "glue" guys. It is still not certain if Malkin will be freed from his Russian contract to play next season.
Sergei Gonchar has offered to mentor him if Gonchar remains in Pittsburgh, so there are positive signs if Malkin wants to play in the NHL next season.
My gut is Malkin will be in Pittsburgh next season. Either way, the Penguins are probably still a lottery team, unless they try the veteran free-agency route again. We just don't know how deep the new owner's pockets will be. Would they offer
Patrik Elias a five-year, $35-million dollar deal to play with Crosby? Will they sign two or three $3 million a year defensemen? We probably won't know about the arena until December. It will either be a glorious season or an absolutely depressing one in Pittsburgh next winter.
Free agency: Since the Penguins are for sale, they will keep costs down to keep the team attractive for a buyer. Also, who will be the new GM? Steve Tambellini? There are rumors Pat Brisson of IMG, Crosby's agent, might pull a Mike Barnett and become the Penguins' GM.
Draft: Erik Johnson or Phil Kessel? Johnson is probably three years away and is no certain perennial All-Star. He looks like he will be very good, but it is not clear-cut. Can Kessel play in the NHL next season? He has multiple red flags -- he lacks vision and his defensive hockey is well below par. Still, he has the speed and the shot. There have been whispers that he has "Lindros-like" family concerns behind the scenes. If he is there at No. 2, do you take him and put him on the wing with Malkin or Crosby?
Kessel would probably score 40-50 goals next season playing with Crosby, despite any personal rivalry they might have. Get Sid the puck, use your speed, learn how to get open and finish. Good times. He also could be a minus-412. I'd interview them both. Look them in the eye. Go to their homes. Look around the house. Peek in the medicine cabinet. Meet the Fockers. And then make my decision. I'd love the job of interviewing these prospects. I bet the Penguins take Johnson.
3. Chicago Blackhawks: The Blackhawks select third in the draft. Kessel still might be there with all of his red flags. What do the Hawks do? They have a decent corps of young players and overpriced veterans. They are kind of in no man's land. If the vets all stay healthy next season and the young players step it up, could we have a
Carolina Hurricanes on our hands? Not quite. The Hawks need a young playmaker and Jonathan Toews is that guy. He turns 18 this month, so he is very young. He had 22 goals on 102 shots in 42 games as a 17-year-old freshman at North Dakota this past year. He is 6-foot-1 and 180 pounds. I know I grew two more inches after I turned 18. We'll see what happens to Toews -- 6-2, 195 pounds with good hands would make a nice Hawk in a couple of years.
Free agency: After the judgment shown last summer, I would stay away from expensive free agents. Keep developing the kids.
Draft: Take Toews. Have him go back to North Dakota, play in another World Junior tournament, and win a National Championship in the spring. Then, play him with Jack Skille for the 2007-08 Blackhawks season.
4. Washington Capitals: With Ovechkin in the lineup, the Capitals gained six wins and 11 more points than the 2003-04 season. The fact that he was a plus player on such an awful defensive team is only more Rookie of the Year evidence for him. His line usually had the puck.
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"Hey, they're calling penalties as advertised. Everyone's still shocked, 'Why are they calling penalties in the playoffs?' They're supposed to because they want to work, and Gary Bettman was here so, hello! I mean it doesn't take a rocket scientist or even a sports writer to figure that one out."-- Sharks coach Ron Wilson on people who are incredulous to all the penalties being called in the playoffs.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!---------------------INLINE TABLE (END)-------------------->The Capitals could go a few ways. They need defensemen and they could use a young center. If you want to improve quickly, you are always better off getting veteran defensemen via free agency and drafting skill. When you have such an immediate star like Ovechkin, it can make an organization impatient.
Free agency: They need a couple of rear guards. I said rear guards.
Hal Gill on line No. 2.
Draft: I like Peter Mueller and think he fits in with the Capitals' developing style of play. He would be here at this point and would be a high-value pick. The Caps do like to think outside the box. Last year, they took 6-5 defenseman Sasha Pokulok with the 14th pick in the first round. I wouldn't be surprised if they took Nigel Williams here, a big defenseman on his way to Wisconsin in the fall. The Capitals draft off of need, more than Central Scouting ranking.
5. Boston Bruins: Who knows here? We don't know who the GM will be or what the long-term philosophy is. We don't know how much influence Harry Sinden has. Bruins owner Jeremy Jacobs probably should have demoted Sinden to season-ticket holder emeritus. If Jacobs hired Ray Bourque to be president, then Bourque could have hired Dean Lombardi to be GM. And then Lombardi could have hired Mike Eaves from Wisconsin. Then the Bruins could have moved forward. But we know that won't happen, especially since Lombardi is in Los Angeles now.
Free agency: The Bruins usually make one free-agency splash just from a pure marketing sense. Got to get those season-ticket renewals! We'll know Sinden is still in charge if the Bruins trade
Patrice Bergeron to create cap space so the Bruins can sign
Brendan Witt.
Draft: Kessel will still be here. If Sinden is still calling the shots, the Bruins will draft their 289th defenseman in the past five years, Bobby Sanguinetti from the OHL. Chris Stewart also has Bruin written all over him. He's a big right winger who can score and get to the penalty box. Hmm.
6. Columbus Blue Jackets: The Blue Jackets were 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and are in the position where they can take the best player on the draft board, regardless of position. They won't have lots of free-agency options because they are close to the cap. The Jackets are what they are right now.
Free agency: Outside of the first line, the Jackets could upgrade anywhere with a midlevel free-agent signing. They can't spend too much. They have some aging veterans who will not be performing up to their salaries in the coming years. Their window is somewhat small unless some of their young guys really blossom, a possibility in the faster, younger NHL. They could use a second-line center. They need
Gilbert Brule or
Dan Fritsche to make a great leap forward next season.
Draft: I see Sweden's Nicklas Backstrom in the Blue Jackets future. Smart, two-way players are what the Jackets need.
7. New York Islanders: The Islanders have great fans. Truly passionate and special. Naturally, their Stanley Cups in the '80s spawned a spirited fan base. But more than the championships, the Islanders were a unique team. They were a great movie with great actors. Now they are a mess. All those bad trades and short-sighted plans have them with little hope for the immediate future. That being said, there is an adequate enough core that, if the right coach were brought in to elevate everyone's play, the Islanders could be competitive. Hello, Andy Murray?
Free agency: They will probably make a run at Elias, who wouldn't? But they need to start creating a new Islander identity of young, drafted players.
Draft: You just know this is where Kessel will end up.