1. Penn State
Record over the last five years: 44-17
The Athletic’s estimated valuation: $1.2 billion (11th among Power 4 programs)
Job grade: A
This place has it all: tradition, money, facilities, support and recent success. It’s a top-15 job in college football. Penn State is paying around $45 million to get rid of James Franklin coming off a CFP semifinal appearance. That signals how serious the Nittany Lions are about getting over the hump.
Franklin deserves a lot of credit for getting Penn State back near the top of the sport. He won a lot of games, just not the big ones. He also forced the program to modernize, demanding more in facilities and money.
A few sitting head coaches elsewhere in the Big Ten would fit here, but the school also may take even bigger swings. Jobs as good as this one, coming off such a successful run, do not come open like this often. If Penn State is fully aligned and committed on the revenue share/NIL front, anything could happen during the search.
2. Arkansas
Record over the last five years: 29-27
The Athletic’s estimated valuation: $646 million (23rd among Power 4 programs)
Job grade: B
It’s one of the toughest jobs in the SEC, without much in-state high school talent and far away from major cities and recruiting areas, and Arkansas has underpaid coaches and players relative to its competition. The Razorbacks’ 2021 peak under Sam Pittman was their lone Top 25 finish since 2011; there have been more losing seasons than bowl appearances since then. Arkansas hasn’t won a conference championship since 1989 and hasn’t played in the SEC Championship Game since 2006.
But it’s still an SEC job, which will give it an advantage over many other open jobs in the eyes of coaching candidates, and it’s the only Power 4 program in the state. Everyone is behind the Razorbacks. Adding to the difficulty is the money invested in men’s basketball and baseball. Athletic director Hunter Yurachek recently admitted Arkansas is competing for national championships in those sports, but not football. The floor here is lower than that of jobs farther down this list, but the ceiling may be higher. The school needs a coach who can convince boosters to compete for better football players while, more importantly, maximizing the talent on the roster.
3. UCLA
Five-year record: 30-24
The Athletic’s estimated program valuation: $343 million (T-43rd among Power 4 programs)
Job grade: B
The idea of UCLA has long seemed better than the reality of UCLA. The Bruins haven’t won a conference championship since 1998 and haven’t posted a 10-win season in more than a decade. Fan apathy is showing up in the attendance figures at the Rose Bowl, and the athletic department’s financial problems have been piling up — the Bruins have been operating at
a cumulative deficit of over $200 million over the last five years.
But it’s a Big Ten job in Southern California. That doesn’t mean all Big Ten jobs are better than all ACC or Big 12 jobs. But it means the Bruins’ ceiling and the floor should be higher, and the path to success is easy to envision.
The school needs a coach capable of setting up a better recruiting operation in California and exciting the fans and donors to spend for success. The expectation should be annual bowl games with periodic 10-win seasons.
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4. Oklahoma State
Five-year record: 33-24
Estimated valuation: $373 million (39th among P4)
Job grade: B
The bottom fell out from under Mike Gundy so quickly, but the Cowboys played for the Big 12 championship in 2021 and 2023, including a Fiesta Bowl win in 2021. They had made 18 consecutive bowl games until last season. The flip side is that the program had a sub-.500 all-time record before its native son Gundy took over.
The program has a pipeline to Texas for talent and sits in a winnable Big 12 conference. This should be a top-third job in that league, which means a fairly clear path to the College Football Playoff. The Cowboys’ financial investment must increase, however, and the school’s leadership has spent some of this year on somewhat shaky ground.
Oklahoma State needs a coach who can take advantage of its proximity to Texas and meet the expectations of regularly competing for a Big 12 championship.
5. Virginia Tech
Five-year record: 23-31
Estimated valuation: $455 million (31st among P4)
Job grade: B
Under Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech played for a national championship to cap the 1999 season and won at least 10 games 13 times from 1995 to 2011. But those days are long gone, and it’s not clear whether they can come back. Dominating recruiting in the Hampton Roads region and consistently finding diamonds in the rough, as Beamer did, is a lot harder in today’s game.
The program has been underfunded and understaffed relative to the rest of the ACC for a long time. Athletic director Whit Babcock has proposed a sizable budget increase, though it’s not clear where all the money would come from. The location isn’t ideal for recruiting, either.
The school needs a coach who can better develop talent, and the expectation should be to compete to reach the ACC Championship Game, which the Hokies haven’t played in since 2016.
6. Stanford
Five-year record: 14-39
Estimated valuation: $202 million (60th among P4)
Job grade: C+
The Cardinal won at least 10 games five times from 2010 to 2016, but that was a different era of college football. They haven’t won more than four games since 2018, and
the NIL/portal era has limited the program’s upside. General manager Andrew Luck has been tasked with running the football program, and he’s all-in. Luck loves the school, but he has never done this before. Will he let the next coach run the program the way that coach wants?
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Stanford is also now an ACC member, receiving less money in conference payouts after the Pac-12’s collapse. There is no identity around this program right now.
The school needs a coach who can do more with less, maximizing development. The expectation should be to regularly reach bowl games.
7. Oregon State
Record over the last five years: 30-28
Job Grade: C+
The Beavers won 10 games just three seasons ago but were left behind in conference realignment and have tried to pick up the pieces. The bad news is this has always been a difficult job located in an area that isn’t rich with talent. The good news is Oregon State has facilities and decent NIL support, and the reconstructed Pac-12 next year provides a path back to contention. The Beavers expect to compete in that new league, made up mostly of current Mountain West schools, and bowl games are a reasonable expectation.
8. UAB
Record over the last five years: 25-31
Job Grade: C
UAB was college football’s feel-good story. The Blazers were shut down in 2014 before the community brought the program back in 2017 and immediately won big under coach Bill Clark, with 43 wins in the first five seasons back on the field. But Clark stepped down due to health issues, and the school didn’t stick with interim head coach Bryant Vincent and instead hired Trent Dilfer. The ensuing tenure sent the program back into the ground with a 9-21 record, including 0-15 in road games. UAB has a new stadium, a nice football building and a good location. It’s behind its American Conference peers financially, but the upside remains.
9. Kent State
Five-year record: 14-40
Job grade: F
On the field, this is the worst job in the country. The Golden Flashes were the only winless team in the FBS last season, then
fired coach Kenni Burns in the offseason for issues around a loan from a booster and his use of a school credit card. In mid-October they beat an FBS opponent for the first time since 2022.
Going back to 1988, Kent State has just four winning seasons, one of which was the four-game season in 2020. Despite being the alma mater of Nick Saban, Lou Holtz and Gary Pinkel, Kent State has not been able to find much success. Former coach Sean Lewis turned the program into a respectable outfit from 2019 to ’22, going 6-2 in MAC play in 2021, but
he left for an assistant job at Colorado, and the several notable players on the team transferred out. Playing in the MAC does provide room for upward mobility, competing against teams with similar resources, but it’s as uphill a climb as it gets in the FBS.
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